Wahlergebnissede
Pollster

GMS: current polls

131 polls since 9 February 2017, 7 of them in 2026. Latest release on 14 September 2026. Recently commissioned by: GMS, SAT.1 Bayern, CSU, SAT.1 Bayern / Antenne Bayern.

Our analysis

How does GMS compare?

House effect since 22 September 2025 in federal polls: SPD -0.5, Linke -0.5, AfD +0.5 relative to the average of the other pollsters (7 polls). Accuracy: rank 5 of 13 with an average deviation of 1.3 points per party across 5 elections since 2017. All pollsters compared.

  • SPD -0.5
  • Linke -0.5
  • AfD +0.5
  • BSW -0.5
  • CDU/CSU -0.1
  • FDP -0.1
  • Grüne ±0
Deviation of the final GMS poll before each election from the result
ElectionPoll ofMean deviationBiggest miss
Bundestag 23 Feb 202519 Feb 20251.5Linke -2.8
Bavaria 8 Oct 202319 Sep 20230.6Freie Wähler +1.2
Bundestag 26 Sep 202114 Sep 20211.1FDP +1.5
Bavaria 14 Oct 201827 Sep 20181.6SPD +3.3
Bundestag 24 Sep 201721 Sep 20171.8CDU/CSU +4.1
Federal

GMS on the federal election

The pollster's latest polls for the Bundestag.

PollsterPublishedAfDCDU/CSUGrüneSPDLinkeFDPBSWFreie WählerOthers
GMS14 Sep 202630201411114316
GMS20 Jul 202628231311105217
GMS1 Jun 202627231611115223
GMS3 Mar 202624261216103324
GMS5 Jan 202627241215103423
GMS17 Nov 2025262512141133–6
GMS30 Sep 202525261115103316
GMS1 Jul 20252229131594314
GMS19 May 202523261214104416
GMS7 Apr 202525261115104414
GMS19 Feb 20252031131564425
GMS7 Feb 20252130141554425
GMS3 Jan 20251833131634427
GMS3 Dec 20241734131534626
GMS17 Sep 20241834111424737

Average of all pollsters for the federal election

All parliaments

Latest poll per election

  • Bundestag9 Feb 2017
    CDU/CSU 33% · SPD 29% · AfD 11%
  • Bavaria19 Oct 2017
    CSU 41% · SPD 15% · AfD 13%
  • Saxony-Anhalt29 Jul 2020
    CDU 33% · AfD 19% · Linke 16%

Other pollsters

Election tickerNext electionSaarland207 daysLatest pollForsa, North Rhine-Westphalia23 Sep 2026CDU 29AfD 22Grüne 18Biggest moveSPD, Rhineland-Palatinate▼ −8,3Leading nationallyAfDfor 159 daysRun-offsLower Saxony local elections4 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%, preliminary

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