Wahlergebnisse
Pollster

GMS poll: latest Sunday question

Latest federal Sunday question of 19 October 2026: AfD 30.0%, CDU/CSU 19.0%, Grüne 15.0%, SPD 12.0%, Linke 10.0%, FDP 3.0%. 133 polls since 9 February 2017, 9 of them in 2026. Latest release on 19 October 2026. Recently commissioned by: GMS, SAT.1 Bayern, CSU, SAT.1 Bayern / Antenne Bayern.

Our analysis

How does GMS compare?

House effect since 7 November 2025 in federal polls: AfD +0.9, SPD -0.7, Linke -0.5 relative to the average of the other pollsters (7 polls). Accuracy: rank 5 of 13 with an average deviation of 1.3 points per party across 5 elections since 2017. All pollsters compared.

  • AfD +0.9
  • SPD -0.7
  • Linke -0.5
  • BSW -0.5
  • CDU/CSU -0.3
  • FDP -0.2
  • Grüne ±0
Deviation of the final GMS poll before each election from the result
ElectionPoll ofMean deviationBiggest miss
Bundestag 23 Feb 202519 Feb 20251.5Linke -2.8
Bavaria 8 Oct 202319 Sep 20230.6Freie Wähler +1.2
Bundestag 26 Sep 202114 Sep 20211.1FDP +1.5
Bavaria 14 Oct 201827 Sep 20181.6SPD +3.3
Bundestag 24 Sep 201721 Sep 20171.8CDU/CSU +4.1
Federal

All GMS federal election polls

83 polls since 9 February 2017, newest first; each row with date, values, fieldwork period and sample size.

All GMS federal election polls
PollsterPublishedAfDCDU/CSUGrüneSPDLinkeFDPBSWFreie WählerOthers
GMS19 Oct 202630191512103317
GMS14 Sep 202630201411114316
GMS20 Jul 202628231311105217
GMS1 Jun 202627231611115223
GMS3 Mar 202624261216103324
GMS5 Jan 202627241215103423
GMS17 Nov 2025262512141133–6
GMS30 Sep 202525261115103316
GMS1 Jul 20252229131594314
GMS19 May 202523261214104416
GMS7 Apr 202525261115104414
GMS19 Feb 20252031131564425
GMS7 Feb 20252130141554425
GMS3 Jan 20251833131634427
GMS3 Dec 20241734131534626
GMS17 Sep 20241834111424737
GMS13 Aug 20241732121435827
GMS18 Jun 20241831141435627
GMS7 May 20241831141524637
GMS6 Feb 20241832131624537
GMS3 Jan 20242333131436–35
GMS12 Dec 20232232151425–37
GMS19 Sep 20232327151646––9
GMS9 Aug 20232127141747––10
GMS4 Jul 20232028141747––10
GMS6 Jun 20231929151847––8
GMS4 Apr 20231531171946––8
GMS21 Feb 20231529171957––8
GMS4 Jan 20231429171957––9
GMS2 Dec 20221228211847––10
GMS26 Oct 20221528201846––9
GMS21 Sep 20221328211847––9
GMS27 Jul 20221027231859––8
GMS21 Jun 2022829212148––9
GMS31 May 2022730202248––9
GMS26 Apr 2022926182648––9
GMS1 Mar 20229271524610––9
GMS4 Jan 202211241626412––7
GMS5 Nov 202110211626415––8
GMS14 Sep 202111231625613––6
GMS7 Sep 202111231725612––6
GMS28 Jul 202110301815712––8
GMS21 Jun 202110282016812––6
GMS17 May 202111262415711––6
GMS29 Mar 202111262116811––7
GMS15 Feb 2021937181777––5
GMS4 Jan 2021937181686––6
GMS9 Nov 20201037191575––7
GMS12 Oct 20201036201675––6
GMS27 Jul 20201038191466––7
GMS15 Jun 2020939171586––6
GMS27 Apr 20201038161686––6
GMS3 Jan 20201428211389––7
GMS3 Dec 20191527211489––6
GMS8 Oct 20191527221478––7
GMS13 Sep 20191227231687––7
GMS23 Jul 20191228251388––6
GMS25 Jun 20191326261388––6
GMS9 May 20191329191798––5
GMS4 Apr 201913301815910––5
GMS28 Feb 20191431181699––3
GMS24 Jan 201913311914910––4
GMS13 Dec 20181530191499––4
GMS11 Oct 2018182716151010––4
GMS27 Sep 201818271516109––5
GMS11 Sep 20181629141799––6
GMS1 Aug 2018163013171010––4
GMS12 Jul 201817301217109––5
GMS17 May 201814341216109––5
GMS27 Apr 201813331217119––5
GMS22 Mar 2018133311181010––5
GMS8 Feb 20181432131899––5
GMS3 Jan 201814321120109––4
GMS4 Dec 2017133210211010––4
GMS19 Oct 201713319211012––4
GMS21 Sep 2017103782299––5
GMS7 Sep 2017838922910––4
GMS16 Aug 201774082289––6
GMS6 Jul 201773992389––5
GMS1 Jun 2017839823810––4
GMS4 May 201793672987––4
GMS23 Mar 201793483186––4
GMS9 Feb 2017113392986––4
Min – Max7–3019–407–2611–312–113–152–81–33–10

For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.

Average of all pollsters for the federal election

All parliaments

Latest poll per election

  • Bundestag9 Feb 2017
    CDU/CSU 33% · SPD 29% · AfD 11%
  • Bavaria19 Oct 2017
    CSU 41% · SPD 15% · AfD 13%
  • Saxony-Anhalt29 Jul 2020
    CDU 33% · AfD 19% · Linke 16%

Other pollsters

Election tickerNext electionSaarland161 daysLatest pollINSA, Federal7 Nov 2026AfD 29CDU/CSU 19Grüne 15Biggest moveCDU, Hamburg▼ −6,0Leading nationallyAfDfor 204 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.