North Rhine-Westphalia state election 2027: polls, forecast and date

Each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.

Since 23 September 2024, Forsa has measured AfD on average 2.9 points above the average of the other pollsters, Forsa has measured SPD on average 2.5 points below the average of the other pollsters, Forsa has measured CDU on average 1.9 points below the average of the other pollsters.

Adjusted for these house effects, CDU would stand at 32.1% instead of 30.5%, AfD would stand at 18.3% instead of 19.5%, SPD would stand at 16.4% instead of 15.5%. The current average is therefore shaped by which pollsters published most recently.

Under Sainte-Laguë, the 181 seats would split into 62 for CDU, 40 for AfD, 34 for Grüne, 31 for SPD, 14 for Linke. FDP would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 181 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold 5 per cent.

All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.

Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.

Before the North Rhine-Westphalia state election on 15 May 2022, Institut Wahlkreisprognose came closest to the result with an average error of 1.4 points per party, YouGov was furthest away with 2.8 points. All pollsters underestimated CDU (by 4.0 points on average) and underestimated Grüne (by 2.0 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.

98 polls since 10 February 2017. Pollsters: Forsa, Infratest dimap, INSA, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, YouGov, Civey, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Mentefactum.

Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.

Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.

Which pollsters survey the North Rhine-Westphalia state election and when they last did.