Terms

Election glossary

28 terms that appear on these pages, explained in our own words. Polls first, then electoral law, then institutions.

Election poll: A representative survey of usually 1,000 to 2,500 eligible voters about their party preference. The raw answers are weighted by age, gender, region and education, with the undecided and non-voters removed. What gets published is the Sunday question; some pollsters additionally report an unweighted political mood. An election poll describes the fieldwork period, not a future election. Current election polls.
Election forecast: Strictly speaking, the projection on election night based on exit polls; in everyday use, any extrapolation of the polls to election day. Seats, coalitions and probabilities can be calculated from the polling average; how far such extrapolations have historically missed depends above all on the distance to the election. Forecasts for all upcoming elections.
Sunday question: The standard question in election research: “Which party would you vote for if the election were held next Sunday?” The answers are weighted and adjusted for the undecided; the result is the published poll. It describes the mood at the time of the survey, not the result of a future election. Current federal polls.
Projection and political mood: Some pollsters publish two figures: the raw political mood and a projection that factors in long-term party loyalties and voting behaviour. The projection is what gets published and what is shown here, because it is closer to the election result.
Margin of error: Every sample deviates randomly from the population. With 1,000 to 2,000 respondents the margin is around two to three points for large parties and about one point for small ones. A difference within this margin is no evidence of a change. On top of that come errors no statistic captures: who does not respond, who conceals their intention, how the weighting is done.
Polling average: Several polls together are more reliable than one. This portal takes the most recent poll from each pollster within a time window and averages them without weighting. Other providers weight by age or sample size; the differences are usually below half a point. Method.
House effect: A pollster measures a party systematically higher or lower than the others because method, weighting and sampling differ. The house effect says nothing about who is right. But it explains why a jump in the average sometimes comes down to nothing more than which pollster published last. House effects at federal level.
Sample size: The number of respondents. More respondents reduce random fluctuation, but only by the square root: four times as many respondents halve the error. Beyond about 1,000, a larger sample adds little; what matters then is the quality of the sample.
Telephone, online, face to face: Pollsters survey by telephone (randomly dialled landline and mobile numbers), online (panels of registered participants, weighted by population characteristics) or in person at home. No method is inherently better; what matters is how well the weighting matches the population. Pollster accuracy.
Electoral threshold (five-percent hurdle): A party only receives seats if it wins at least five percent of the votes statewide. The threshold is meant to prevent fragmentation. Exceptions: direct mandates (three at federal level, one or two in some states) and parties of national minorities such as the SSW in Schleswig-Holstein. The European election currently has no threshold.; Also: five-percent clause, electoral hurdle, minimum vote share; Exceptions and special rules by state
Bundestag: Five-percent threshold, waived for parties with at least three direct mandates
Berlin: Five-percent threshold, waived with one direct mandate
Brandenburg: Five-percent threshold, waived with one direct mandate and for lists of the Sorbian minority
Bremen: Five-percent threshold applied separately in Bremen and Bremerhaven
Hamburg: Five-percent threshold, waived with one direct mandate
Saxony: Five-percent threshold, waived with two direct mandates
Schleswig-Holstein: Five-percent threshold; the SSW is exempt as the party of the Danish minority
European Parliament (German seats): No threshold at the 2024 European election
Five-percent threshold without exception: Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Hesse, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia.
Basic-mandate clause: A party that wins enough constituencies outright enters parliament according to its second-vote share even below five percent. At federal level that takes three direct mandates, in Berlin, Brandenburg, Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein one, in Saxony two. In 2021 the Left owed its entry to the Bundestag to this rule.; Also: basic mandate, direct-mandate clause, alternative clause; Exceptions and special rules by state
Bundestag: three direct mandates
Berlin: one direct mandate
Brandenburg: one direct mandate
Hamburg: one direct mandate
Saxony: two direct mandates
Schleswig-Holstein: one direct mandate
All other states and the European election have no basic-mandate clause.
First vote and second vote: The first vote elects a person in the constituency, the second vote a party list. What counts for the parties' strength in parliament is the second vote. That is why polls ask about the second vote. In Bavaria both votes count; in Bremen and Hamburg voters have several votes to distribute.; Also: constituency vote, direct vote (first vote), state vote, list vote (second vote); Exceptions and special rules by state
Bundestag: two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
Baden-Württemberg: two votes since 2026: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
Bavaria: two votes, both count for the seat distribution; the second vote goes to a person on the district list
Berlin: two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the district list
Brandenburg: two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
Bremen: five votes, freely distributable across lists and individual candidates
Hamburg: ten votes: five for constituency lists, five for the state list, each cumulable
Hesse: two votes: constituency vote and state vote
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
Lower Saxony: two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
North Rhine-Westphalia: two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
Rhineland-Palatinate: two votes: constituency vote and state vote
Saarland: one vote for a state and constituency list
Saxony: two votes: direct vote for the constituency, list vote for the state list
Saxony-Anhalt: two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
Schleswig-Holstein: two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
Thuringia: two votes: constituency vote and state vote
European Parliament (German seats): one vote for a federal or state list
Sainte-Laguë/Schepers: The calculation method used to translate vote shares into seats, at federal level and in most states. Each party's votes are divided successively by 1, 3, 5, 7 and so on; the largest quotients win the seats. The method treats large and small parties neutrally.
Hare/Niemeyer: Another calculation method: each party first receives the whole-number quota of its seats, and the remaining seats go to the largest fractional remainders. Used in Berlin, Brandenburg, Hesse, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia. The result usually differs from Sainte-Laguë by at most one seat.
d'Hondt: The oldest method, dividing by 1, 2, 3, 4 and so on. It slightly favours large parties and in Germany is now used only in Saarland.
Overhang and compensatory seats: If a party wins more constituencies than it is entitled to by second votes, overhang seats arise. To keep the proportions right, the other parties receive compensatory seats and the parliament grows. The Bundestag abolished this in 2025 and stays at 630 seats. Most state parliaments still grow; North Rhine-Westphalia went to 195 instead of 181 seats in 2022. Example: North Rhine-Westphalia.
Coalition and majority: A government needs more than half the seats, so at least 316 out of 630. This portal shows all two- and three-party alliances that reach this threshold, without political assessment. Whether an alliance comes about is decided by the parties, not by the arithmetic.
Blocking minority: More than a third of the seats is enough to block constitutional amendments, because those require two thirds. In Thuringia in 2024 the AfD became the first party in a state parliament to reach this threshold.
Bundesrat: The chamber of the states with 69 votes, three to six per state depending on population. Each state votes as a bloc, which is why coalitions abstain when they disagree. For legislation requiring the states' consent, the federal government needs 35 votes. State elections therefore also shift the majorities at federal level. Votes in the Bundesrat.
Legislative term: The term of a parliament: four years in the Bundestag and in Bremen, five years in all other state parliaments and in the European Parliament. The election date falls within a legally defined window at the end of the term, which is why dates are often only fixed a year in advance. Election dates.; Also: legislative period, parliamentary term, term of office; Exceptions and special rules by state
four years: Bundestag, Bremen
five years: Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Berlin, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Hesse, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Schleswig-Holstein, Thuringia, European Parliament (German seats)
Voting age: In federal elections people are eligible to vote from 18; in the European election and in eight states already from 16: Baden-Württemberg, Berlin, Brandenburg, Bremen, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein.; Also: minimum voting age, right to vote, votes at 16; Exceptions and special rules by state
from 16: Baden-Württemberg, Berlin, Brandenburg, Bremen, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Schleswig-Holstein, European Parliament (German seats)
from 18: Bundestag, Bavaria, Hesse, Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia
Chancellor question: The question of whom respondents would directly elect as chancellor. It measures people, not parties, and is asked regularly by some pollsters. This portal does not show it yet, because the underlying database only contains the Sunday question.
Election of the Federal President: The Federal President is elected by the Federal Convention: all members of the Bundestag plus an equal number of delegates elected by the state parliaments (Article 54 Basic Law). The first two ballots require an absolute majority, the third a plurality. The term is five years, one consecutive re-election is allowed; the next election is due in early 2027. Federal Convention 2027: composition and majorities.; Also: Who elects the Federal President?, Federal Convention
Election of the Federal Chancellor: The Bundestag elects the chancellor on the proposal of the Federal President, without debate and with the majority of its members, the chancellor majority (Article 63 Basic Law). If the proposal fails, the Bundestag can elect its own candidate within 14 days by absolute majority; after that a plurality suffices and the Federal President may appoint or dissolve the Bundestag. Which coalitions would have a chancellor majority?.; Also: Who elects the Federal Chancellor?, chancellor majority
Local elections (Kommunalwahl): Elections of municipal and city councils and district councils, in many states also of mayors and district administrators. Each state has its own local election law: terms of four to six years, mostly with cumulative and split voting, in eight states held together with the European election. EU citizens may vote from 16 or 18. Local elections: dates in all states and results.; Also: What are Kommunalwahlen?, council election, district council election
Mayoral election: In all territorial states the mayor is directly elected, mostly for six to eight years and separately from the council. If nobody wins more than half the votes, most states hold a run-off between the top two candidates two weeks later; Baden-Württemberg instead holds a new vote decided by plurality. Run-off rules per state.; Also: district administrator election, lord mayor election, direct election
Run-off (Stichwahl): Second ballot between the two best-placed candidates when nobody reached an absolute majority in the first round. Common in mayoral and district administrator elections, held two weeks after election day in Bavaria, Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia and Thuringia. State and federal elections have no run-off.; Also: second ballot
Cumulative and split voting: In most local elections each voter has as many votes as there are seats (often three per list). Cumulating means stacking up to three votes on one candidate; splitting means spreading votes across candidates of different lists. North Rhine-Westphalia, Schleswig-Holstein and Saarland vote with a single vote instead.; Also: Kumulieren, Panaschieren

Reference data

Minimum size of the parliaments

The statutory number of members per parliament, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. The legal basis cites the section of the respective electoral law; in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania the number is fixed in the state constitution.

Parliament	Minimum number of members	Legal basis
Saarland	51	§ 1 Abs. 1 LWG
Schleswig-Holstein	69	§ 1 Abs. 1 LWahlG
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania	71	Art. 20 Abs. 2 Verf M-V
Saxony-Anhalt	83	§ 1 Abs. 1 LWG
Bremen	87	§ 5 Abs. 1 BremWahlG
Brandenburg	88	§ 1 Abs. 1 BbgLWahlG
Thuringia	88	§ 1 Abs. 1 ThürLWG
Rhineland-Palatinate	101	§ 26 Abs. 1 LWahlG
Hesse	110	§ 1 Abs. 1 LWG
Baden-Württemberg	120	§ 1 Abs. 1 LWG
Saxony	120	§ 1 Abs. 1 SächsWahlG
Hamburg	121	§ 2 Abs. 1 BüWG
Berlin	130	§ 7 Abs. 2 LWG
Lower Saxony	135	§ 1 Abs. 1 NLWG
Bavaria	180	Art. 21 Abs. 1 LWG
North Rhine-Westphalia	181	§ 14 Abs. 2 LWahlG
Bundestag	630	§ 1 Abs. 1 BWahlG

The actual size after the most recent election is shown on each parliament's page. Legal texts as of 2026.