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Election poll Sweden

General election Sweden: current election polls

Average of the latest poll from each pollster within the last 45 days, as of 13 September 2026, 9 pollsters. S leads with 28.5%. Next election: expected September 2030, plus the Sweden election forecast 2030.

Next electionSeptember 2030to the election forecastLast election 13 Sep 2026S 28.0%official result, Valmyndigheten
Seats349
Polls, as of 13 Sep 2026S 28.5%leading in the average across all pollsters
Election poll Sweden
Average of each pollster's latest poll, shares in percent
  • S28.5%+0.5
  • SD18.8%+1.3
  • M17.5%-2.4
  • C7.8%+0.8
  • V7.5%-0.9
  • MP6.9%+0.8
  • KD6.4%+0.2
  • L4.7%-0.6
  • Others1.9%-1.2

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 4%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 13 Sep 2026.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 13 Sep 2026
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Basis

These polls feed into the average

The latest poll from each pollster within the last 45 days, averaged without weighting.

Polls in the average, Sweden
PollsterPublishedSSDMCVMPKDL
SVT13 Sep 202628.417.218.17.587.46.15.4
Novus exitpoll13 Sep 202628.418.517.596.9765
Novus11 Sep 202628.619.518.19.26.66.45.54.7
Infostat11 Sep 202626.320.217.37.88.27.36.44.5
Demoskop11 Sep 202629.71916.77.77.55.67.64.7
Verian10 Sep 202627.618.115.88.27.786.55.5
Ipsos10 Sep 202627.418.818.37.67.66.86.95
Indikator Opinion10 Sep 202628.618.316.86.97.86.97.15.4
Indikator23 Aug 202631.319.718.95.97.66.55.82.2
Projection

Seat projection for the Riksdag

349 seats. Four per cent threshold nationwide, or twelve per cent in one constituency. Sweden uses the modified Sainte-Laguë method with a first divisor of 1.2 and levelling seats; we simplify by using the classic method, which can differ by one or two seats for small parties.

Seat projection Sweden
Projected seat distribution based on the polling average
S: 101 seatsSD: 67 seatsM: 62 seatsC: 28 seatsV: 27 seatsMP: 24 seatsKD: 23 seatsL: 17 seatsMajority from 175349of 349 seats
  • S101
  • SD67
  • M62
  • C28
  • V27
  • MP24
  • KD23
  • L17
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 13 Sep 2026
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Majorities

Which coalitions would have a majority?

All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Whether an alliance is politically feasible is not something the arithmetic can tell.

Coalition calculator Sweden
Seats based on the polling average, tap parties to test an alliance
Coalition calculator: tap the parties
Tap parties to test an alliance
S: 101 seatsSD: 67 seatsM: 62 seatsC: 28 seatsV: 27 seatsMP: 24 seatsKD: 23 seatsL: 17 seats0/349
Majority from 175 seats
Projected seat distribution with 349 seats, majority from 175.
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 13 Sep 2026
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  • S + SD + M230 of 349
  • S + SD + C196 of 349
  • S + SD + V195 of 349
  • S + SD + MP192 of 349
  • S + SD + KD191 of 349
  • S + M + C191 of 349
  • S + M + V190 of 349
  • S + M + MP187 of 349
  • S + M + KD186 of 349
  • S + SD + L185 of 349
  • S + M + L180 of 349
Simulation

How safe are the majorities?

The seat distribution is recalculated 3,000 times with randomly varied polling figures. The spread per party follows from the sampling error and a flat systematic deviation of 1.5 points, because there is no accuracy history of our own for Sweden yet.

Majority probabilities Sweden
Share of simulations in which an alliance holds a majority

Majority in parliament

  • S + SD + Mover 99%
  • S + SD + Cover 99%
  • S + SD + Vover 99%
  • S + SD + MP99%
  • S + SD + KD98%
  • S + M + C99%
  • S + M + V98%
  • S + M + MP96%
  • S + M + KD93%
  • S + SD + L84%
  • S + M + L69%
  • S + SD32%

Clearing the electoral threshold

  • L (±1.5)68%
  • KD (±1.5)95%
  • MP (±1.5)98%
  • V (±1.5)99%

3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 13 Sep 2026
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Trend

Polling trend since the general election 2026

Polling trend Sweden
Rolling average and individual polls, shares in percent
010203040502023202420252026SSDMCVMPKDL
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 45 days. Period 25 Sep 2022 to 13 Sep 2026. Tap the tiles to hide parties.
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 13 Sep 2026
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Background

The general election in Sweden at a glance

The Riksdag has 349 seats and is elected every four years on the second Sunday in September, at the same time as the regions and municipalities. Seats are allocated by modified Sainte-Laguë, 310 in 29 constituencies and 39 as levelling seats.

From 2022 Ulf Kristersson governed with Moderaterna, Kristdemokraterna and Liberalerna, supported by Sverigedemokraterna (Tidö Agreement). The general election on 13 September 2026 decides whether that continues; government formation follows the final result.

Most polls come from Verian (formerly Sifo), Novus, Demoskop, Indikator and Ipsos; the statistics agency SCB publishes the largest survey twice a year, with more than 5,000 respondents.

Parliament
Riksdag
Seats
349
Threshold
4 per cent
Last election
13 September 2026
Next election
expected September 2030

Result of the general election 2026

S 28.0%M 19.9%SD 17.5%V 8.4%C 7.0%KD 6.2%MP 6.1%L 5.3%Others 3.1%

Source: Valmyndigheten, Val till riksdagen 2026. Turnout 84.89%.

Archive

All polls for the general election

228 polls since 25 September 2022. Pollsters: SCB (43), Novus (39), Demoskop (32), Verian (29), Ipsos (25), Indikator (17), Sentio (14), Sifo (9), Indikator Opinion (8), Infostat (2), Demoskop for Aftonbladet (2), SKOP (Archived) (2), Kantar (2), SVT (1), Novus exitpoll (1), Verian (Archived) (1), Kantar (Archived) (1).

The 40 latest polls, Sweden
PollsterPublishedSSDMCVMPKDL
SVT13 Sep 202628.417.218.17.587.46.15.4
Novus exitpoll13 Sep 202628.418.517.596.9765
Novus11 Sep 202628.619.518.19.26.66.45.54.7
Infostat11 Sep 202626.320.217.37.88.27.36.44.5
Demoskop11 Sep 202629.71916.77.77.55.67.64.7
Verian10 Sep 202627.618.115.88.27.786.55.5
Ipsos10 Sep 202627.418.818.37.67.66.86.95
Indikator Opinion10 Sep 202628.618.316.86.97.86.97.15.4
Novus8 Sep 202626.619.316.67.87.58.86.45.8
Novus5 Sep 20262719.717.97.77.87.864.3
Indikator Opinion4 Sep 202627.919.318.47.39.36.86.62.2
Verian2 Sep 202629.218.916.47.48.186.33
Infostat1 Sep 202628.120.818.17.797.762.6
Demoskop1 Sep 202627.22016.68.67.96.97.92.8
Novus30 Aug 202625.820.717.28.38.47.86.53.3
Demoskop24 Aug 202630.418.317.27.76.86.88.52
Indikator23 Aug 202631.319.718.95.97.66.55.82.2
Verian16 Aug 202630.518.517.387.77.76.21.9
Novus16 Aug 202630.119.118.37.97.47.96.31.9
Demoskop10 Aug 202630.220.216.87.36.56.67.52.4
Novus19 Jul 202631.820.417.36.67.87.26.11.8
Indikator Opinion26 Jun 202632.519.217.777.86.36.11.7
Demoskop17 Jun 202631.319.316.36.27.67.66.52.9
Novus14 Jun 202632.62016.66.18.96.45.62.2
Verian7 Jun 202631.618.917.15.48.77.862
SCB28 May 202633.918.317.36.18.66.64.52.5
Ipsos25 May 202632201968652
Indikator Opinion24 May 202633.720.417.56.37.86.14.32
Demoskop24 May 202631.91916.767.68.15.73.1
Novus17 May 202630.919.218.268.87.15.62.4
Verian10 May 202632.518.917.25.57.97.95.12
Ipsos27 Apr 202632191969752
Indikator Opinion27 Apr 202633.619.418.36.47.25.752.4
Demoskop27 Apr 202633.219.916.55.97.17.24.84
Novus19 Apr 202632.419.818.46.67.66.14.82.9
Verian5 Apr 202632.72016.86.87.76.15.72.2
Indikator Opinion29 Mar 202633.420.618.45.775.74.62.2
Ipsos22 Mar 202633201869642
Demoskop19 Mar 202631.119.917.35.97.56.654.5
Novus18 Mar 202632.72117.56.37.55.75.12.3

The 40 latest of 228 polls.

Sources

Data and licence

Polls: Wikipedia authors, article "Opinion polling for the 2026 Swedish general election", licence CC BY-SA 4.0, retrieved on 24 Sep 2026 (revision 1375923966). Averages, seats, coalitions and probabilities are our own calculations by wahlergebnisse.io and are likewise licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. Election result and government: Valmyndigheten, Val till riksdagen 2026.

Method · All countries · Election polls Germany

Election tickerNext electionSaarland207 daysLatest pollForsa, North Rhine-Westphalia23 Sep 2026CDU 29AfD 22Grüne 18Biggest moveSPD, Rhineland-Palatinate▼ −8,3Leading nationallyAfDfor 159 daysRun-offsLower Saxony local elections4 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%, preliminary

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