AfD: current polling
Alternative für Deutschland in polls for the federal election and in the states. Figures are the average of the latest poll from each pollster.
- Mood index
- 25.9%
- State average
- 23.9%
- West
- 20.8%
- East
- 35.9%
AfD trend in federal election polls
Attention for AfD: searches, Wikipedia, media
Choose a party and a source: the line shows the polling average, the area shows attention as an index (highest week in the period = 100).
In the last four weeks AfD accounted for the following shares of attention across the eight parties: Google searches 41.4% and Wikipedia views 19.5%. Poll rating: 28.0%.
How is the attention index calculated?
The weekly value of the selected source is divided by the highest week in the selected period and multiplied by 100. The line shows the mean of the latest federal poll of each pollster within 28 days.
In which districts AfD is strong
Relationship between AfD's second-vote share at the 2025 federal election and the structural data of the districts:
- stronger where high: share aged 67 and over (r 0.70)
- weaker where high: share of foreigners (r -0.55)
- weaker where high: population density (r -0.49)
Do polls overestimate or underestimate AfD?
Across 38 elections since 2017, the final polls before the election put AfD on average ±0 points below the result (196 polls, mean absolute deviation 1.4 points). All parties and pollsters compared.
- Berlin 20 Sep 2026+1.7
- Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania 20 Sep 2026-1.4
- Saxony-Anhalt 6 Sep 2026-1.8
- Rhineland-Palatinate 22 Mar 2026-0.2
- Baden-Württemberg 8 Mar 2026-0.1
- Hamburg 2 Mar 2025+2.3
- Bundestag 23 Feb 2025-0.3
- Brandenburg 22 Sep 2024-1.7
- Saxony 1 Sep 2024+0.2
Polling at federal and state level
Current polling average per parliament compared with the last election result. The rank shows the position among all parties and the change since the election.
| Parliament | As of | Poll | Last election | Change | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundestag | 7 Nov 2026 | 27.8% | 20.8% | +7.0 | 1↑ |
| Baden-Württemberg | 15 Oct 2026 | 23.0% | 18.8% | +4.2 | 2↑ |
| Bavaria | 20 Oct 2026 | 20.3% | 14.6% | +5.7 | 2↑ |
| Berlin | 8 Oct 2026 | 17.8% | 16.3% | +1.5 | 3= |
| Brandenburg | 9 Oct 2026 | 38.5% | 29.2% | +9.3 | 1↑ |
| Bremen | 19 Aug 2026 | 16.0% | – | – | 3 |
| Hamburg | 30 Sep 2026 | 13.0% | 7.5% | +5.5 | 5= |
| Hesse | 27 Oct 2026 | 23.0% | 18.4% | +4.6 | 2= |
| Lower Saxony | 11 Sep 2026 | 21.0% | 10.9% | +10.1 | 3↑ |
| Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania | 29 Oct 2026 | 37.2% | 38.2% | -1.0 | 1= |
| North Rhine-Westphalia | 16 Oct 2026 | 20.0% | 5.4% | +14.6 | 2↑ |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 20 Aug 2026 | 24.0% | 19.5% | +4.5 | 2↑ |
| Saarland | 4 Nov 2026 | 21.0% | 5.7% | +15.3 | 2↑ |
| Saxony | 21 May 2026 | 42.0% | 30.6% | +11.4 | 1↑ |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 3 Sep 2026 | 42.0% | 43.8% | -1.8 | 1= |
| Schleswig-Holstein | 14 Jul 2026 | 16.5% | 4.4% | +12.1 | 3↑ |
| Thuringia | 6 Nov 2026 | 40.0% | 32.8% | +7.2 | 1= |
| European election | 8 Jun 2024 | 15.5% | 15.9% | -0.4 | 2↑ |
The AfD posts its highest figures in Saxony (42.0%) and Saxony-Anhalt (42.0%), its lowest in Hamburg (13.0%). It is the largest party in five states.
What does the table show?
For each parliament the current polling average for AfD (latest poll from each pollster, unweighted mean), the result of the last election, the difference in percentage points and the rank among all parties; the arrow shows whether AfD has moved up or down since the election. States without a current poll or without a figure for the party are omitted.
Where AfD was the strongest party at the last election
Three levels: states by their most recent state election, districts and municipalities by second votes at the 2025 federal election. Colour only where the party came first, the stronger the shade, the higher the share. Grey areas: another party was stronger.
AfD is the strongest party in 3 of 16 states (latest state election), in 80 of 401 districts and in 3,300 of 10,648 municipalities (2025 federal election).
How is “strongest party” determined?
For each area the party with the highest vote share counts: in the states by the official result of the most recent state election, in districts and municipalities by second votes at the 2025 federal election (Federal Returning Officer). AfD is coloured where it leads; the opacity rises with the share, the highest value is fully coloured.
Why do the state and district maps differ?
The state map shows state elections from different years, the district and municipality maps a single federal election. State elections have other candidates, issues and turnout, so a party can lead a state and still trail in the same districts at the federal election.
Highest shares: Saxony-Anhalt 43.8% · Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania 38.2% · Thuringia 32.8%
Highest shares: Hildburghausen 46.8% · Görlitz 46.7% · Sächsische Schweiz-Osterzgebirge 46.5% · Saale-Orla-Kreis 46.1% · Sonneberg 45.8%
Highest shares: Groß Luckow 74.7% · Karlsdorf 73.3% · Garz 73.0% · Wrangelsburg 72.9% · Göschitz 71.4%