Party
AfD: current polling
Alternative für Deutschland in polls for the federal election and in the states. Figures are the average of the latest poll from each pollster.
Federal election, polling average
27.9%
As of 22 Sep 2026, 10 pollsters
Versus election result 23 Feb 2025
+7.1
Election result 20.8%
Versus a year ago
+1.9
Average on 23 Sep 2025: 26.0%
Federal
AfD trend in federal election polls
Our analysis
Do polls overestimate or underestimate AfD?
Across 38 elections since 2017, the final polls before the election put AfD on average ±0 points below the result (196 polls, mean absolute deviation 1.4 points). All parties and pollsters compared.
- Berlin 20 Sep 2026+1.7
- Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania 20 Sep 2026-1.4
- Saxony-Anhalt 6 Sep 2026-1.8
- Rhineland-Palatinate 22 Mar 2026-0.2
- Baden-Württemberg 8 Mar 2026-0.1
- Hamburg 2 Mar 2025+2.3
- Bundestag 23 Feb 2025-0.3
- Brandenburg 22 Sep 2024-1.7
- Saxony 1 Sep 2024+0.2
States
AfD in state election polls
Sorted by polling figure. States without a figure for the party are omitted.
| Election | Average |
|---|---|
| Saxony | 42.0% |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 42.0% |
| Thuringia | 40.0% |
| Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania | 36.8% |
| Brandenburg | 35.5% |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 24.0% |
| Saarland | 23.0% |
| Hesse | 21.0% |
| Lower Saxony | 21.0% |
| Bavaria | 20.0% |
| Baden-Württemberg | 19.5% |
| North Rhine-Westphalia | 19.5% |
| Berlin | 18.0% |
| Schleswig-Holstein | 16.5% |
| Bremen | 16.0% |
| European election | 15.5% |
| Hamburg | 11.0% |
Election result