Party · Bavaria
AfD in Bavaria: current polling
Alternative für Deutschland in the Sunday question for the state election in Bavaria: average of the 1 pollsters whose latest poll is at most 120 days old, comparison with the last election result, trend and house effects.
Bavaria, polling average
20.0%
As of 12 Sep 2026, 1 pollsters
Versus election result 8 Oct 2023
+5.4
Election result 14.6%
Versus a year ago
+8.0
Average on 17 Sep 2024: 12.0%
Rank in the state
2
2 of 8 parties
Polling trend
AfD in the Bavaria Sunday question over time
AfD in the Bavaria Sunday question over time
Rolling 120-day average, shares in percent
Averaged across all pollsters, AfD stands at 20.0% in Bavaria (as of 12 Sep 2026), rank 2 among the parties.
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL), average calculated by us · As of: 12 Sep 2026
By pollster
AfD in Bavaria: value per pollster
Latest poll from each pollster within the averaging window, with the pollster's house effect for this party (mean deviation from the other pollsters' average in points).
| Pollster | Date | Value | House effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Civey | 12 Sep 2026 | 20.0% | +1.4 |
States
AfD in all states
Polling average per state parliament, sorted by value; each row leads to the party's state page.
| State | Average | vs. election | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saxony | 42.0% | +11.4 | 1 |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 42.0% | – | 1 |
| Thuringia | 40.0% | +7.2 | 1 |
| Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania | 36.8% | – | 1 |
| Brandenburg | 35.5% | +6.3 | 1 |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 24.0% | +4.5 | 2 |
| Saarland | 23.0% | +17.3 | 3 |
| Hesse | 21.0% | +2.6 | 2 |
| Lower Saxony | 21.0% | +10.1 | 3 |
| Baden-Württemberg | 19.5% | +0.7 | 3 |
| North Rhine-Westphalia | 19.5% | +14.1 | 2 |
| Berlin | 18.0% | – | 3 |
| Schleswig-Holstein | 16.5% | +12.1 | 3 |
| Bremen | 16.0% | – | 3 |
| Hamburg | 11.0% | +3.5 | 5 |
Next
More
AfD nationally and in all statesBavaria state election: all polls, seats and coalitionsSunday question Bavaria
- How is AfD polling in Bavaria right now?
- Averaged across all pollsters, AfD stands at 20.0% in Bavaria (as of 12 Sep 2026), rank 2 among the parties.
- How did AfD do in the last Bavaria state election?
- In the election on 8 October 2023, AfD won 14.6%. Against that result it is polling +5.4 today.
- When is the next state election in Bavaria?
- The next state election in Bavaria is expected autumn 2028.