Sunday question Bavaria: if the state election were this Sunday
"Which party would you vote for if the state election were held next Sunday?" This page shows the answer for Bavaria averaged across the 3 pollsters whose latest poll is at most 120 days old, compared with the result of the last election on 8 October 2023. Below: the latest poll from each pollster and the trend. The best-known series is the BayernTrend by BR, conducted by Infratest dimap; it enters the average here like every other poll. BR: BayernTrend.
Sunday question Bavaria: average of all pollsters
One column per pollster with the date of its latest poll, on the right the average and the last election result.
| Party | Average 20 Oct 2026 | Infratest dimap 20 Oct 2026 | GMS 19 Oct 2026 | Civey 17 Oct 2026 | 2023 election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 37.0 | 36.0 | 37.0 | 38.0 | 37.0 |
| AfD | 20.3 | 21.0 | 22.0 | 18.0 | 14.6 |
| Grüne | 14.3 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 14.4 |
| Freie Wähler | 10.3 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 15.8 |
| SPD | 7.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 8.4 |
| Linke | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| FDP | 2.0 | – | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| Others | 5.7 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
Values in percent, latest poll per pollster within the averaging window. Bold: highest value per party.
CSU leads with 37.0%, 16.7 points ahead of AfD (20.3%). Biggest movement over 120 days: AfD +1.8 and CSU −1.5.
The latest Sunday question from every pollster for Bavaria
One row per pollster, each showing its most recently published federal poll. Differences between pollsters are normal: they sample, weight and treat undecided voters differently.
| Pollster | Published | CSU | AfD | Grüne | Freie Wähler | SPD | Linke | FDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infratest dimap | 20 Oct 2026 | 36 | 21 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 4 | – | ||
| GMS | 19 Oct 2026 | 37 | 22 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Civey | 17 Oct 2026 | 38 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Min – Max | 36–38 | 18–22 | 13–15 | 9–12 | 6–8 | 3–4 | – | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
If the state election were today: what parliament would look like
Projected seat distribution from the polling average, 180 seats, majority from 91.
- CSU75
- AfD41
- Grüne29
- Freie Wähler21
- SPD14
CSU would be the largest group with 75 of 180 seats; a majority needs 91. Linke and FDP would miss the threshold and win no seats.
Polling trend Bavaria: how the Sunday question has moved
Since 20 Oct 2024 AfD +6.1 and Grüne +2.4 gained, while CSU −5.8 and Freie Wähler −1.3 lost points.
What happened recently
New polls, official results and fixed election dates of the past weeks, each with its date.
- PeopleMarkus Fischbach new in parliament: Rheinland-Pfalz
- PeopleJürgen Harrer new in parliament: Hessen
- Local electionsLower Saxony local elections: data as of 31 Oct 2026
- PeopleStefan Evers: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleAnne Helm: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleKai Wegner: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleMartin Pätzold: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleAlexander J. Herrmann: mandate ended, Berlin
What the Sunday question tells you, and what it does not
Pollsters usually survey 1,000 to 2,500 eligible voters per poll, by phone, online or a mix. Raw answers are weighted by age, gender, region, education and past voting behaviour; undecided voters and non-voters are excluded. The published figure is each party's share among those naming a party.
The Sunday question measures the mood on the day of the survey; it is not a forecast. How an expectation for election day is derived from it is shown in the election forecast. Each single poll carries a margin of error of roughly two to three points per party; averaging several pollsters smooths out outliers.
Which pollsters systematically rate whom higher or lower is shown under house effects, their accuracy before past elections under pollsters compared. The terms are explained in the election glossary.
Frequently asked questions about the Sunday question
- If the state election in Bavaria were held today, who would win?
- Averaged across 3 pollsters, CSU leads with 37.0%, ahead of AfD with 20.3% (as of 20 Oct 2026). Whether that becomes a government is decided by the seat distribution.
- When is the next state election in Bavaria?
- The next state election in Bavaria is expected autumn 2028. The last one took place on 8 October 2023.
- How often is the Sunday question asked for Bavaria?
- In the past twelve months 18 polls from 3 pollsters were published. Polling is far more frequent before state elections than mid-term.
- What is the BayernTrend?
- The BayernTrend is the regular poll by broadcaster BR on the Bavaria state election, conducted by Infratest dimap. It contains the Sunday question and questions on satisfaction with the state government. On this page it appears next to the other surveys and in the average.
- How is the polling average calculated?
- We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 120 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.
- Why do pollsters differ?
- Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.
More on Bavaria
Sunday question in the other states