Sunday question Bavaria: if the state election were this Sunday
"Which party would you vote for if the state election were held next Sunday?" This page shows the answer for Bavaria averaged across the 1 pollsters whose latest poll is at most 120 days old, compared with the result of the last election on 8 October 2023. Below: the latest poll from each pollster and the trend.
Sunday question Bavaria: average of all pollsters
- CSU38.0%+1.0
- AfD20.0%+5.4
- Grüne13.0%-1.4
- Freie Wähler12.0%-3.8
- SPD6.0%-2.4
- Linke3.0%+1.5
- BSW3.0%
- FDP2.0%-1.0
- Others3.0%-2.3
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the 2023 election result.
CSU leads with 38.0%, 18.0 points ahead of AfD (20.0%). Biggest movement over 120 days: Freie Wähler +2.0 and AfD +1.3. Around the 5% threshold: SPD 6.0%.
The latest Sunday question from every pollster for Bavaria
One row per pollster, each showing its most recently published federal poll. Differences between pollsters are normal: they sample, weight and treat undecided voters differently.
| Pollster | Published | CSU | AfD | Grüne | Freie Wähler | SPD | Linke | BSW | FDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civey | 12 Sep 2026 | 38 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| GMS | 3 Mar 2026 | 39 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 14 Jan 2026 | 39 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 3 | – | – | ||
| Forsa | 12 Sep 2025 | 37 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | ||
| Min – Max | 37–39 | 18–20 | 13–15 | 9–12 | 6–8 | 3–5 | 1–3 | 2–2 | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
How the Sunday question in Bavaria has moved
Since 17 Sept 2024 AfD +6.2 and Linke +2.0 gained, while CSU −4.6 and BSW −1.7 lost points.
What the Sunday question tells you, and what it does not
Pollsters usually survey 1,000 to 2,500 eligible voters per poll, by phone, online or a mix. Raw answers are weighted by age, gender, region, education and past voting behaviour; undecided voters and non-voters are excluded. The published figure is each party's share among those naming a party.
The Sunday question measures the mood on the day of the survey; it is not a forecast. How an expectation for election day is derived from it is shown in the election forecast. Each single poll carries a margin of error of roughly two to three points per party; averaging several pollsters smooths out outliers.
Which pollsters systematically rate whom higher or lower is shown under house effects, their accuracy before past elections under pollsters compared. The terms are explained in the election glossary.
Frequently asked questions about the Sunday question
- If the state election in Bavaria were held today, who would win?
- Averaged across 1 pollsters, CSU leads with 38.0%, ahead of AfD with 20.0% (as of 12 Sep 2026). Whether that becomes a government is decided by the seat distribution.
- When is the next state election in Bavaria?
- The next state election in Bavaria is expected autumn 2028. The last one took place on 8 October 2023.
- How often is the Sunday question asked for Bavaria?
- In the past twelve months 19 polls from 4 pollsters were published. Polling is far more frequent before state elections than mid-term.
- How is the polling average calculated?
- We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 120 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.
- Why do pollsters differ?
- Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.
More on Bavaria
Sunday question in the other states