Sunday question Saxony: if the state election were this Sunday
"Which party would you vote for if the state election were held next Sunday?" This page shows the answer for Saxony averaged across the 1 pollster whose latest poll is at most 120 days old, compared with the result of the last election on 1 September 2024. Below: the latest poll from each pollster and the trend. The best-known series is the SachsenTrend by MDR, conducted by Infratest dimap; it enters the average here like every other poll. MDR: SachsenTrend.
Sunday question Saxony: average of all pollsters
One column per pollster with the date of its latest poll, on the right the average and the last election result.
| Party | Average 11 Nov 2026 | INSA 11 Nov 2026 | 2024 election |
|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 41.0 | 41.0 | 30.6 |
| CDU | 20.0 | 20.0 | 31.9 |
| Linke | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 |
| BSW | 8.0 | 8.0 | 11.8 |
| SPD | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.3 |
| Grüne | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.1 |
| Others | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.8 |
Values in percent, latest poll per pollster within the averaging window. Bold: highest value per party.
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the 2024 election result.
AfD leads with 41.0%, 21.0 points ahead of CDU (20.0%). Biggest movement over 120 days: AfD −1.0 and CDU −1.0. Around the 5% threshold: Grüne 6.0%.
The latest Sunday question from every pollster for Saxony
One row per pollster, each showing its most recently published federal poll. Differences between pollsters are normal: they sample, weight and treat undecided voters differently.
If the state election were today: what parliament would look like
Projected seat distribution from the polling average, 120 seats, majority from 61.
- AfD54
- CDU26
- Linke12
- BSW11
- SPD9
- Grüne8
AfD would be the largest group with 54 of 120 seats; a majority needs 61.
Polling trend Saxony: how the Sunday question has moved
Since 7 Jan 2025 AfD +6.2 and SPD +1.6 gained, while CDU −9.2 and BSW −0.8 lost points.
What happened recently
New polls, official results and fixed election dates of the past weeks, each with its date.
- New pollSaxony: INSA for BILD
- PeopleMarkus Fischbach new in parliament: Rheinland-Pfalz
- PeopleJürgen Harrer new in parliament: Hessen
- Local electionsLower Saxony local elections: data as of 31 Oct 2026
- PeopleStefan Evers: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleAnne Helm: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleKai Wegner: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleMartin Pätzold: mandate ended, Berlin
What the Sunday question tells you, and what it does not
Pollsters usually survey 1,000 to 2,500 eligible voters per poll, by phone, online or a mix. Raw answers are weighted by age, gender, region, education and past voting behaviour; undecided voters and non-voters are excluded. The published figure is each party's share among those naming a party.
The Sunday question measures the mood on the day of the survey; it is not a forecast. How an expectation for election day is derived from it is shown in the election forecast. Each single poll carries a margin of error of roughly two to three points per party; averaging several pollsters smooths out outliers.
Which pollsters systematically rate whom higher or lower is shown under house effects, their accuracy before past elections under pollsters compared. The terms are explained in the election glossary.
Frequently asked questions about the Sunday question
- If the state election in Saxony were held today, who would win?
- Averaged across 1 pollster, AfD leads with 41.0%, ahead of CDU with 20.0% (as of 11 Nov 2026). Whether that becomes a government is decided by the seat distribution.
- When is the next state election in Saxony?
- The next state election in Saxony is expected autumn 2029. The last one took place on 1 September 2024.
- How often is the Sunday question asked for Saxony?
- In the past twelve months 3 polls from 2 pollsters were published. Polling is far more frequent before state elections than mid-term.
- What is the SachsenTrend?
- The SachsenTrend is the regular poll by broadcaster MDR on the Saxony state election, conducted by Infratest dimap. It contains the Sunday question and questions on satisfaction with the state government. On this page it appears next to the other surveys and in the average.
- How is the polling average calculated?
- We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 120 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.
- Why do pollsters differ?
- Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.
More on Saxony
Sunday question in the other states