Sunday question North Rhine-Westphalia: if the state election were this Sunday
"Which party would you vote for if the state election were held next Sunday?" This page shows the answer for North Rhine-Westphalia averaged across the 3 pollsters whose latest poll is at most 120 days old, compared with the result of the last election on 15 May 2022. Below: the latest poll from each pollster and the trend. The best-known series is the NRW-Trend by WDR, conducted by Infratest dimap; it enters the average here like every other poll. WDR: NRW-Trend.
Sunday question North Rhine-Westphalia: average of all pollsters
One column per pollster with the date of its latest poll, on the right the average and the last election result.
| Party | Average 16 Oct 2026 | INSA 16 Oct 2026 | Forsa 23 Sep 2026 | Infratest dimap 28 Jun 2026 | 2022 election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDU | 29.0 | 26.0 | 29.0 | 32.0 | 35.7 |
| AfD | 20.0 | 21.0 | 22.0 | 17.0 | 5.4 |
| SPD | 16.3 | 18.0 | 14.0 | 17.0 | 26.7 |
| Grüne | 16.3 | 16.0 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 18.2 |
| Linke | 8.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.1 |
| FDP | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 5.9 |
| Others | 6.3 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 |
Values in percent, latest poll per pollster within the averaging window. Bold: highest value per party.
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the 2022 election result.
CDU leads with 29.0%, 9.0 points ahead of AfD (20.0%). Biggest movement over 120 days: CDU −4.7 and AfD +2.7. Around the 5% threshold: FDP 4.0%.
The latest Sunday question from every pollster for North Rhine-Westphalia
One row per pollster, each showing its most recently published federal poll. Differences between pollsters are normal: they sample, weight and treat undecided voters differently.
| Pollster | Published | CDU | AfD | SPD | Grüne | Linke | FDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 16 Oct 2026 | 26 | 21 | 18 | 16 | 10 | 4 | ||
| Forsa | 23 Sep 2026 | 29 | 22 | 14 | 18 | 8 | 3 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 28 Jun 2026 | 32 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Min – Max | 26–32 | 17–22 | 14–18 | 15–18 | 6–10 | 3–5 | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
If the state election were today: what parliament would look like
Projected seat distribution from the polling average, 181 seats, majority from 91.
- CDU59
- AfD40
- SPD33
- Grüne33
- Linke16
CDU would be the largest group with 59 of 181 seats; a majority needs 91. FDP would miss the threshold and win no seats.
Polling trend North Rhine-Westphalia: how the Sunday question has moved
Since 12 Dec 2024 AfD +5.0 and Grüne +2.9 gained, while CDU −8.8 and SPD −0.9 lost points.
What happened recently
New polls, official results and fixed election dates of the past weeks, each with its date.
- PeopleMarkus Fischbach new in parliament: Rheinland-Pfalz
- PeopleJürgen Harrer new in parliament: Hessen
- Local electionsLower Saxony local elections: data as of 31 Oct 2026
- PeopleStefan Evers: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleAnne Helm: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleKai Wegner: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleMartin Pätzold: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleAlexander J. Herrmann: mandate ended, Berlin
What the Sunday question tells you, and what it does not
Pollsters usually survey 1,000 to 2,500 eligible voters per poll, by phone, online or a mix. Raw answers are weighted by age, gender, region, education and past voting behaviour; undecided voters and non-voters are excluded. The published figure is each party's share among those naming a party.
The Sunday question measures the mood on the day of the survey; it is not a forecast. How an expectation for election day is derived from it is shown in the election forecast. Each single poll carries a margin of error of roughly two to three points per party; averaging several pollsters smooths out outliers.
Which pollsters systematically rate whom higher or lower is shown under house effects, their accuracy before past elections under pollsters compared. The terms are explained in the election glossary.
Frequently asked questions about the Sunday question
- If the state election in North Rhine-Westphalia were held today, who would win?
- Averaged across 3 pollsters, CDU leads with 29.0%, ahead of AfD with 20.0% (as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether that becomes a government is decided by the seat distribution.
- When is the next state election in North Rhine-Westphalia?
- The next state election in North Rhine-Westphalia is 25 April 2027. The last one took place on 15 May 2022.
- How often is the Sunday question asked for North Rhine-Westphalia?
- In the past twelve months 7 polls from 3 pollsters were published. Polling is far more frequent before state elections than mid-term.
- What is the NRW-Trend?
- The NRW-Trend is the regular poll by broadcaster WDR on the North Rhine-Westphalia state election, conducted by Infratest dimap. It contains the Sunday question and questions on satisfaction with the state government. On this page it appears next to the other surveys and in the average.
- How is the polling average calculated?
- We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 120 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.
- Why do pollsters differ?
- Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.
More on North Rhine-Westphalia
Sunday question in the other states