Saxony state election: latest polls and 2024 result

Each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.

Since 21 May 2024, INSA has measured CDU on average 4.8 points below the average of the other pollsters, Civey has measured BSW on average 3.7 points below the average of the other pollsters, INSA has measured AfD on average 3.0 points above the average of the other pollsters.

Adjusted for these house effects, CDU would stand at 25.8% instead of 21.0%, AfD would stand at 39.0% instead of 42.0%, BSW would stand at 5.5% instead of 7.0%. The current average is therefore shaped by which pollsters published most recently.

Under Sainte-Laguë, the 120 seats would split into 55 for AfD, 28 for CDU, 12 for Linke, 9 for BSW, 8 for SPD, 8 for Grüne. Regular size 120 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Five per cent threshold, waived for parties with two constituency seats

All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.

Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.

Before the Saxony state election on 1 Sep 2024, Forsa came closest to the result with an average error of 0.7 points per party, INSA was furthest away with 1.3 points. All pollsters overestimated BSW (by 1.5 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.

74 polls since 22 June 2017. Pollsters: INSA, Civey, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, IM Field, uniQma.

Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.

Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.

Which pollsters survey the Saxony state election and when they last did.