Single poll

Civey poll of 1 January 2024 for the Saxony state election

Commissioned by
Sächsische Zeitung
Fieldwork period
18 Dec 2023 to 1 Jan 2024
Respondents
3,004
Method
Online
  • AfD37.0%+4.0
  • CDU33.0%±0
  • Linke8.0%+1.0
  • Grüne7.0%±0
  • SPD3.0%-4.0
  • Freie Wähler3.0%±0
  • FDP1.0%-1.0
  • Others8.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 4 Dec 2023.

In this poll Civey has AfD ahead on 37.0%, followed by CDU on 33.0%. 3,004 people were surveyed from 18 Dec 2023 to 1 Jan 2024, method Online, commissioned by Sächsische Zeitung.

Compared with the previous Civey poll of 4 Dec 2023, AfD gains 4.0 points, SPD loses 4.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has SPD 4.8 points lower and CDU 4.2 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -4.8average 7.8
  • CDU +4.2average 28.8
  • FDP -3.5average 4.5
  • AfD +3.2average 33.8
  • Grüne +1.2average 5.8
  • Linke -0.3average 8.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning two constituencies.

AfD: 52 seatsCDU: 47 seatsLinke: 11 seatsGrüne: 10 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • AfD52
  • CDU47
  • Linke11
  • Grüne10
  • AfD + CDU99 of 120
  • AfD + Linke63 of 120
  • AfD + Grüne62 of 120
  • CDU + Linke + Grüne68 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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