Election forecast: who will win the next elections?
For every upcoming election we convert the current polls into seats and run thousands of simulations to see which party ends up strongest and which majority is likely. Each page also shows how far polls were off at earlier elections with the same lead time to polling day.
All elections in date order
- Saarland state election 2027 forecast18 Apr 2027Saarland state election, in 162 daysLeading: SPD 33.0%Strongest party: SPD in over 99%Majority: SPD + AfD over 99%Polls: as of 4 Nov 2026, 1 pollsters
- Schleswig-Holstein state election, in 162 daysLeading: CDU 30.0%Strongest party: CDU in over 99%Majority: CDU + Grüne 71%Polls: as of 14 Jul 2026, 2 pollsters
- North Rhine-Westphalia state election, in 169 daysLeading: CDU 29.0%Strongest party: CDU in 99%Majority: CDU + AfD 91%Polls: as of 16 Oct 2026, 3 pollsters
- Bremen state election 2027 forecast30 May 2027Bremen state election, in 204 daysLeading: CDU 22.5%Strongest party: CDU in 65%Majority: CDU + SPD + AfD over 99%Polls: as of 19 Aug 2026, 2 pollsters
- Lower Saxony state election 2027 forecast26 Sep 2027Lower Saxony state election, in 323 daysLeading: SPD 26.0%Strongest party: SPD in 81%Majority: SPD + CDU 70%Polls: as of 11 Sep 2026, 1 pollsters
- Bavaria state election 2028 forecastexpected autumn 2028Bavarian state electionLeading: CSU 37.0%Strongest party: CSU in over 99%Majority: CSU + AfD over 99%Polls: as of 20 Oct 2026, 3 pollsters
- Hesse state election 2028 forecastexpected autumn 2028Hesse state electionLeading: CDU 25.0%Strongest party: CDU in 70%Majority: CDU + AfD 92%Polls: as of 27 Oct 2026, 1 pollsters
- German federal election 2029 forecastexpected January to March 2029Federal electionLeading: AfD 27.8%Strongest party: AfD in over 99%Majority: AfD + CDU/CSU 91%Polls: as of 7 Nov 2026, 10 pollsters
- European election 2029 forecastexpected June 2029European electionLeading: CDU/CSU 30.1%Polls: as of 8 Jun 2024, 7 pollsters
- Brandenburg state election 2029 forecastexpected autumn 2029Brandenburg state electionLeading: AfD 38.5%Strongest party: AfD in over 99%Majority: AfD + SPD over 99%Polls: as of 9 Oct 2026, 2 pollsters
- Saxony state election 2029 forecastexpected autumn 2029Saxony state electionLeading: AfD 42.0%Strongest party: AfD in over 99%Majority: AfD + CDU over 99%Polls: as of 21 May 2026, 1 pollsters
- Thuringia state election 2029 forecastexpected autumn 2029Thuringia state electionLeading: AfD 40.0%Strongest party: AfD in over 99%Majority: AfD + CDU over 99%Polls: as of 6 Nov 2026, 1 pollsters
- Hamburg state election 2030 forecastexpected spring 2030Hamburg state electionLeading: SPD 30.0%Strongest party: SPD in over 99%Majority: SPD + Grüne 85%Polls: as of 30 Sep 2026, 2 pollsters
- Baden-Württemberg state election 2031 forecastexpected spring 2031Baden-Württemberg state electionLeading: Grüne 30.0%Strongest party: Grüne in 96%Majority: Grüne + AfD over 99%Polls: as of 15 Oct 2026, 1 pollsters
- Rhineland-Palatinate state election 2031 forecastexpected spring 2031Rhineland-Palatinate state electionLeading: CDU 28.0%Strongest party: CDU in 86%Majority: CDU + AfD over 99%Polls: as of 20 Aug 2026, 1 pollsters
- Berlin state election 2031 forecastexpected autumn 2031Berlin state electionLeading: Linke 22.0%Strongest party: Linke in 75%Majority: Linke + CDU + AfD over 99%Polls: as of 8 Oct 2026, 6 pollsters
- Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election 2031 forecastexpected autumn 2031Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state electionLeading: AfD 37.2%Strongest party: AfD in 97%Majority: AfD + SPD over 99%Polls: as of 29 Oct 2026, 5 pollsters
- Saxony-Anhalt state election 2031 forecastexpected autumn 2031Saxony-Anhalt state electionLeading: AfD 42.0%Strongest party: AfD in over 99%Majority: AfD + CDU over 99%Polls: as of 3 Sep 2026, 5 pollsters
How accurate are polls before an election?
Mean deviation of the polling average from the result per party, for all 38 elections since 2017, by lead time to polling day. The closer the election, the smaller the error, but even a week ahead polls are typically off by more than a point.
| Lead time | Elections | Deviation per party | Largest deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 38 | ± 1.6 points | ± 4.0 points |
| 1 month | 37 | ± 2.3 points | ± 5.8 points |
| 3 months | 36 | ± 2.9 points | ± 7.0 points |
| 6 months | 34 | ± 3.5 points | ± 8.0 points |
| 1 year | 31 | ± 3.9 points | ± 8.7 points |
| 2 years | 25 | ± 4.5 points | ± 9.8 points |
What an election forecast can do
The real forecast only arrives on election night, from the exit polls. Until then, polls show the mood of the day, and from that mood seats, coalitions and probabilities can be calculated. This projection becomes more robust the closer polling day gets.
We do not weight by pollster and do not extrapolate trends: the average is the latest poll from each pollster, averaged without weighting. The uncertainty per party comes from sampling error and from how accurately polls have historically measured that party, see Method.