German federal election 2029 forecast: who is ahead?
Federal election, expected autumn 2029. Polls as of 22 September 2026, 10 pollsters. AfD leads with 27.9%; AfD remains the strongest party in over 99% of simulated outcomes. Polls are not a prediction but a snapshot of today's mood. How far they typically still move before the election is shown further down.
If the federal election were held today
Unweighted average of the latest poll from each pollster within the last 45 days, compared with the result of the last election on 23 Feb 2025.
- AfD27.9%+7.1
- CDU/CSU20.3%-8.2
- Grüne14.8%+3.2
- SPD12.7%-3.7
- Linke11.6%+2.8
- FDP4.6%+0.3
- BSW3.4%-1.6
- Others5.9%+1.3
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 23 Feb 2025.
All polls, house effects and details for the federal election
What the Bundestag would look like today
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë/Schepers, without overhang and levelling seats. Five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies. The incumbent government of CDU/CSU and SPD would hold 238 of 630 seats today and would no longer have a majority.
- AfD201
- CDU/CSU146
- Grüne107
- SPD92
- Linke84
- CDU/CSU + SPDGovernment, no majority238 of 630
- AfD + CDU/CSU347 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD400 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke392 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke377 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD345 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke337 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke322 of 630
How likely are the majorities?
The seat projection is recalculated 3,000 times with randomly varied polling figures. The spread per party follows from sampling error and from how far polls have missed that party at earlier elections. This is the uncertainty of the polls today, not the uncertainty up to polling day.
Majority in parliament
- CDU/CSU + SPDGovernmentunder 1%
- AfD + CDU/CSU89%
- AfD + Grüne + SPDover 99%
- AfD + Grüne + Linkeover 99%
- AfD + SPD + Linke99%
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD85%
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke74%
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke46%
- AfD + Grüne21%
- AfD + SPD5%
- CDU/CSU + Grüneunder 1%
- Grüne + SPDunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- BSW (±1.3)11%
- FDP (±1)34%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
How reliable is a forecast this far before the election?
For every election since 2017 we calculated the polling average as it stood 7 days to 2 years before polling day and compared it with the official result. Deviation per party is the average across all parties at an election; largest deviation is the party that was furthest off.
Two years ahead, polling averages at 25 elections were off by 4.5 points per party on average, and by 9.8 points for the party missed most. AfD's lead is within this range, so the lead is not secure.
| Lead time | Elections | Deviation per party | Largest deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 38 | ± 1.6 points | ± 4.0 points |
| 1 month | 37 | ± 2.3 points | ± 5.8 points |
| 3 months | 36 | ± 2.9 points | ± 7.0 points |
| 6 months | 34 | ± 3.5 points | ± 8.0 points |
| 1 year | 31 | ± 3.9 points | ± 8.7 points |
| 2 yearsnow | 25 | ± 4.5 points | ± 9.8 points |
Only federal elections since 2017
| Lead time | Elections | Deviation per party | Largest deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 3 | ± 1.5 points | ± 3.3 points |
| 1 month | 3 | ± 2.1 points | ± 5.2 points |
| 3 months | 3 | ± 3.0 points | ± 7.1 points |
| 6 months | 3 | ± 3.5 points | ± 8.7 points |
| 1 year | 2 | ± 3.9 points | ± 8.8 points |
| 2 yearsnow | 2 | ± 4.6 points | ± 8.5 points |
What has shifted since the last election
Polling trend since 23 February 2025. The “Change” view shows gains and losses since the start of the period.
What this forecast can and cannot do
An election poll measures the mood at the time of fieldwork. A forecast in the strict sense only exists on election night at 6 pm, from the exit polls. Everything before that is a projection of the polls: we show what the current figures would mean, and how large the error of such projections has been in the past.
Lead candidates, coalition statements and issues can change before the 2029 federal election. Shortly before the election, polls become more frequent and more accurate; this page updates automatically with every new poll.
Source of the polls: dawum.de (Open Database License). Averages, seats, probabilities and accuracy are our own calculations at wahlergebnisse.io.