German federal election 2029 forecast: who is ahead?
Federal election, expected January to March 2029. Polls as of 7 November 2026, 10 pollsters. AfD leads with 27.8%; AfD remains the strongest party in over 99% of simulated outcomes. Polls are not a prediction but a snapshot of today's mood. How far they typically still move before the election is shown further down.
If the federal election were held today
Unweighted average of the latest poll from each pollster within the last 45 days, compared with the result of the last election on 23 Feb 2025.
All polls, house effects and details for the federal election
When is the next German federal election?
The next federal election is expected between 26 January 2029 and 25 March 2029. The Bundestag convened on 25 March 2025; under Article 39 of the Basic Law, the election takes place no earlier than 46 and no later than 48 months after the start of the legislative term. The Federal President sets the election day, a Sunday or public holiday within that window. 809 days remain until the earliest possible election day on 26 January 2029.
An earlier election is only held if the Bundestag is dissolved: after a lost confidence vote (Article 68, as in 2005 and 2024) or after a failed election of the Chancellor (Article 63). The new election must then take place within 60 days, as on 23 February 2025.
What the Bundestag would look like today
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë/Schepers, without overhang and levelling seats. Five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies. The incumbent government of CDU/CSU and SPD would hold 242 of 630 seats today and would no longer have a majority.
- AfD201
- CDU/CSU144
- Grüne109
- SPD98
- Linke78
- CDU/CSU + SPDGovernment, no majority242 of 630
- AfD + CDU/CSU345 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD408 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke388 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke377 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke331 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke320 of 630
How likely are the majorities?
The seat projection is recalculated 3,000 times with randomly varied polling figures. The spread per party follows from sampling error and from how far polls have missed that party at earlier elections. This is the uncertainty of the polls today, not the uncertainty up to polling day.
Majority in parliament
- CDU/CSU + SPDGovernmentunder 1%
- AfD + CDU/CSU91%
- AfD + Grüne + SPDover 99%
- AfD + Grüne + Linkeover 99%
- AfD + SPD + Linkeover 99%
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD95%
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke74%
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke53%
- AfD + Grüne29%
- AfD + SPD12%
- CDU/CSU + Grüneunder 1%
- Grüne + SPDunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- BSW (±1.3)7%
- FDP (±1)16%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
How reliable is a forecast this far before the election?
For every election since 2017 we calculated the polling average as it stood 7 days to 2 years before polling day and compared it with the official result. Deviation per party is the average across all parties at an election; largest deviation is the party that was furthest off.
Two years ahead, polling averages at 25 elections were off by 4.5 points per party on average, and by 9.8 points for the party missed most. AfD's lead is within this range, so the lead is not secure.
| Lead time | Elections | Deviation per party | Largest deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 38 | ± 1.6 points | ± 4.0 points |
| 1 month | 37 | ± 2.3 points | ± 5.8 points |
| 3 months | 36 | ± 2.9 points | ± 7.0 points |
| 6 months | 34 | ± 3.5 points | ± 8.0 points |
| 1 year | 31 | ± 3.9 points | ± 8.7 points |
| 2 yearsnow | 25 | ± 4.5 points | ± 9.8 points |
Only federal elections since 2017
| Lead time | Elections | Deviation per party | Largest deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 3 | ± 1.5 points | ± 3.3 points |
| 1 month | 3 | ± 2.1 points | ± 5.2 points |
| 3 months | 3 | ± 3.0 points | ± 7.1 points |
| 6 months | 3 | ± 3.5 points | ± 8.7 points |
| 1 year | 2 | ± 3.9 points | ± 8.8 points |
| 2 yearsnow | 2 | ± 4.6 points | ± 8.5 points |
What has shifted since the last election
Polling trend since 23 February 2025. The “Change” view shows gains and losses since the start of the period.
What this forecast can and cannot do
An election poll measures the mood at the time of fieldwork. A forecast in the strict sense only exists on election night at 6 pm, from the exit polls. Everything before that is a projection of the polls: we show what the current figures would mean, and how large the error of such projections has been in the past.
Lead candidates, coalition statements and issues can change before the 2029 federal election. Shortly before the election, polls become more frequent and more accurate; this page updates automatically with every new poll.
Source of the polls: dawum.de (Open Database License). Averages, seats, probabilities and accuracy are our own calculations at wahlergebnisse.io.