Bremen state election 2027: polls, forecast and date
Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 180 days, as of 19 August 2026 (35 days ago). Next election: 30 May 2027; see also the Bremen state election 2027 forecast.
- CDU22.5%-3.7
- SPD21.0%-8.8
- AfD16.0%
- Grüne15.0%+3.1
- Linke13.5%+2.6
- FDP4.0%-1.1
- BD3.0%-6.4
- BSW3.0%
- Others5.5%-1.2
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 14 May 2023.
Averaging the 2 latest polls for the Bremen state election, CDU leads with 22.5%, followed by SPD on 21.0%, a gap within the usual margin of error.
- Lead at the topCDU 1.5 points ahead of SPD, within the margin of error
- Around the 5% thresholdFDP 4.0%
- Movement over 180 daysSPD −4.0 · AfD +1.0 · Grüne +1.0
- Two-party majoritiesnone, 10 three-party options
- Current governmentSPD + Grüne + Linke: 49 of 87 seats, majority
- Basis2 pollsters, latest poll 19 August 2026
These polls feed into the average
Each pollster's latest poll from the past 180 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.
| Pollster | Published | CDU | SPD | AfD | Grüne | Linke | FDP | BD | BSW | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 19 Aug 2026 | 21 | 20 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Infratest dimap | 19 Mar 2026 | 24 | 22 | 15 | 15 | 13 | – | – | 3 | 8 |
Seat distribution in the Bremen Bürgerschaft
Under Sainte-Laguë, the 87 seats would split into 22 for CDU, 21 for SPD, 16 for AfD, 15 for Grüne, 13 for Linke. FDP, BD, BSW would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 87 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Five per cent threshold applied separately for Bremen and Bremerhaven
Which coalitions would have a majority?
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.
- CDU + SPD + AfD59 of 87
- CDU + SPD + Grüne58 of 87
- CDU + SPD + Linke56 of 87
- CDU + AfD + Grüne53 of 87
- SPD + AfD + Grüne52 of 87
- CDU + AfD + Linke51 of 87
- CDU + Grüne + Linke50 of 87
- SPD + AfD + Linke50 of 87
- SPD + Grüne + LinkeGovernment49 of 87
- AfD + Grüne + Linke44 of 87
How secure are the majorities?
Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.
Majority in parliament
- SPD + Grüne + LinkeGovernment96%
- CDU + SPD + AfDover 99%
- CDU + SPD + Grüneover 99%
- CDU + SPD + Linkeover 99%
- CDU + AfD + Grüneover 99%
- SPD + AfD + Grüne99%
- CDU + AfD + Linke99%
- CDU + Grüne + Linke98%
- SPD + AfD + Linke98%
- AfD + Grüne + Linke50%
- CDU + SPD33%
- CDU + AfD1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- BD (±1)2%
- BSW (±1.3)6%
- FDP (±1.1)18%
Largest party
- CDU65%
- SPD35%
- AfD1%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
Polling trend since 28 April 2025
Accuracy ahead of the election on 14 May 2023
Before the Bremen state election on 14 May 2023, Institut Wahlkreisprognose came closest to the result with an average error of 0.6 points per party, INSA was furthest away with 1.1 points. Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.
| Pollster | Poll dated | SPD | CDU | Grüne | Linke | BD | FDP | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 14 May 2023 | 29.8% | 26.2% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 5.1% | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 13 May 2023 (1 day before) | -0.8 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.4 | 0.6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 11 May 2023 (3 days before) | -0.8 | -0.2 | +1.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.9 | 0.6 |
| Infratest dimap | 4 May 2023 (10 days before) | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.1 | -0.9 | -0.4 | +0.9 | 0.7 |
| INSA | 9 May 2023 (5 days before) | +0.2 | +1.8 | +0.1 | -1.9 | -1.4 | +0.9 | 1.1 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.
All polls for the Bremen state election
34 polls since 1 May 2018. Pollsters: INSA, Infratest dimap, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, pollytix.
| Pollster | Published | CDU | SPD | AfD | Grüne | Linke | FDP | BD | BSW | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 19 Aug 2026 | 21 | 20 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Infratest dimap | 19 Mar 2026 | 24 | 22 | 15 | 15 | 13 | – | – | 3 | 8 |
| Infratest dimap | 28 Apr 2025 | 22 | 25 | 15 | 14 | 13 | – | 3 | – | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 13 May 2023 | 25.5 | 29 | – | 13 | 11 | 5.5 | 10 | – | 6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 11 May 2023 | 26 | 29 | – | 13 | 11 | 6 | 10 | – | 5 |
| INSA | 9 May 2023 | 28 | 30 | – | 12 | 9 | 6 | 8 | – | 7 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 May 2023 | 27 | 30 | – | 13 | 9 | 6 | 9 | – | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 4 May 2023 | 27 | 30 | – | 13 | 10 | 6 | 9 | – | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 3 May 2023 | 26 | 32 | – | 15.5 | 8 | 6 | 7.5 | – | 5 |
| INSA | 29 Apr 2023 | 30 | 30 | – | 15 | 6 | 7 | 7 | – | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 20 Apr 2023 | 28 | 31 | – | 17 | 7 | 6 | 6 | – | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 1 Mar 2023 | 27 | 28 | 7 | 19 | 8 | 4 | – | – | 7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 19 Feb 2023 | 21.5 | 27.5 | 10 | 19.5 | 9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | – | 5.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 23 Dec 2022 | 20 | 29 | 9.5 | 20 | 10 | 4.5 | 2.5 | – | 4.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Dec 2022 | 22 | 28 | 10 | 19.5 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 2 | – | 4.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 22 Oct 2022 | 21 | 26 | 11 | 21 | 6.5 | 5 | 4 | – | 5.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 27 Sep 2022 | 23 | 28 | 9.5 | 18 | 9 | 5.5 | 3 | – | 4 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Aug 2022 | 24.5 | 30.5 | 7.5 | 18.5 | 8.5 | 5 | 2 | – | 3.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Jul 2022 | 24.5 | 30 | 5 | 21 | 8.5 | 5 | 2 | – | 4 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 22 Jun 2022 | 23.5 | 32 | 5.5 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 1.5 | – | 4.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 27 May 2022 | 20 | 34.5 | 5.5 | 20 | 10 | 5 | 2 | – | 3 |
| Infratest dimap | 19 May 2022 | 22 | 30 | 6 | 21 | 8 | 6 | – | – | 7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 Mar 2022 | 18 | 31 | 6 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 3 | – | 4 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 23 May 2019 | 26 | 24.5 | 7 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 3 | – | 4.5 |
| INSA | 21 May 2019 | 28 | 23 | 6 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 2 | – | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 16 May 2019 | 27 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 3 | – | 5 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 16 May 2019 | 26 | 24.5 | 8 | 18 | 12 | 5.5 | 3 | – | 3 |
| Infratest dimap | 7 May 2019 | 26 | 25 | 8 | 18 | 12 | 6 | – | – | 5 |
| INSA | 2 Apr 2019 | 25 | 25 | 7 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 2 | – | 4 |
| Infratest dimap | 7 Feb 2019 | 25 | 24 | 8 | 18 | 13 | 6 | – | – | 6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 10 Sep 2018 | 26 | 26 | 6 | 20 | 12 | 7 | – | – | 3 |
| pollytix | 3 Aug 2018 | 24 | 28 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 10 | – | – | 2 |
| INSA | 28 May 2018 | 24 | 22 | 10 | 14 | 17 | 9 | – | – | 4 |
| Infratest dimap | 1 May 2018 | 24 | 26 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 7 | – | – | 5 |
Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.
The Bremen state election at a glance
At the last Bremen state election on 14 May 2023, SPD became the largest party with 29.8% and replaced CDU at the top. The biggest move compared with 2019: BD gained 7.0 points.
Bremen is governed by SPD and Grüne and Linke. On the current polling average this alliance would win 49 of 87 seats and would keep its majority.
34 polls for the Bremen state election have been published since 1 May 2018, 2 of them this year. Most come from Institut Wahlkreisprognose (12), Infratest dimap (10), INSA (6). Recently a new poll has appeared every 106 days on average.
The next Bremen state election is scheduled for 30 May 2027. The term is 4 years, and anyone aged 16 or over is eligible to vote.
- The five per cent threshold applies separately in the Bremen and Bremerhaven electoral areas.
- Bremen is the only state that votes every four years.
Results: 14 May 2023 · 26 May 2019. Pollster accuracy.
- Parliament
- Bremen Bürgerschaft
- Seats
- 87 (regular size)
- Threshold
- 5 per cent
- Seat allocation
- Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
- Votes
- five votes, freely distributable across lists and individual candidates
- Term
- 4 years
- Voting age
- 16 years
- Last election
- 14 May 2023
- Next election
- 30 May 2027
- Government
- SPD, Grüne, Linke
Bremen: largest party by district
Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.
Districts, cities and constituencies in Bremen
Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.
Districts and independent cities
The largest cities
Constituencies at the 2025 federal election
All constituencies in Bremen as a list · All districts and municipalities
Pollsters
Which pollsters survey the Bremen state election and when they last did.
- INSA28 May 2018
- Infratest dimap1 May 2018
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose6 Mar 2022
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen10 Sep 2018
- pollytix3 Aug 2018