Sunday question: if Germany voted this Sunday
The Sunday question is the standard question of German polling: "Which party would you vote for if the federal election were held next Sunday?" This page shows the answer averaged across the 10 pollsters whose latest poll is at most 45 days old, then the latest poll from each pollster and the Sunday question for every state parliament.
Sunday question, federal election: average of all pollsters
One column per pollster with the date of its latest poll, on the right the average and the last election result.
| Party | Average 13 Nov 2026 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 13 Nov 2026 | Ipsos 11 Nov 2026 | INSA 10 Nov 2026 | Forsa 10 Nov 2026 | Infratest dimap 5 Nov 2026 | Verian (Emnid) 23 Oct 2026 | Allensbach 22 Oct 2026 | pollytix 20 Oct 2026 | YouGov 20 Oct 2026 | GMS 19 Oct 2026 | 2025 election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 28.0 | 28.0 | 27.0 | 28.5 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 28.0 | 27.0 | 29.0 | 28.0 | 30.0 | 20.8 |
| CDU/CSU | 20.0 | 22.0 | 20.0 | 19.5 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 23.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 19.0 | 28.5 |
| Grüne | 15.3 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 14.5 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 16.0 | 15.0 | 11.6 |
| SPD | 13.5 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 16.4 |
| Linke | 10.5 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 8.8 |
| FDP | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 4.3 |
| BSW | 3.2 | – | 3.0 | 3.5 | – | 3.0 | 3.0 | – | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 |
| Others | 6.6 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.6 |
Values in percent, latest poll per pollster within the averaging window. Bold: highest value per party.
AfD leads with 28.0%, 8.0 points ahead of CDU/CSU (20.0%). Biggest movement over 45 days: Linke −0.9 and Grüne +0.5. Around the 5% threshold: FDP 4.0%.
The latest Sunday question from every pollster
One row per pollster, each showing its most recently published federal poll. Differences between pollsters are normal: they sample, weight and treat undecided voters differently.
| Pollster | Published | AfD | CDU/CSU | Grüne | SPD | Linke | FDP | BSW | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 13 Nov 2026 | 28 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 3 | – | ||
| Ipsos | 11 Nov 2026 | 27 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | ||
| INSA | 10 Nov 2026 | 28.5 | 19.5 | 14.5 | 14 | 9.5 | 5 | 3.5 | ||
| Forsa | 10 Nov 2026 | 27 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 4 | – | ||
| Infratest dimap | 5 Nov 2026 | 27 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 3 | ||
| Verian (Emnid) | 23 Oct 2026 | 28 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 3 | ||
| Allensbach | 22 Oct 2026 | 27 | 23 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 4 | – | ||
| pollytix | 20 Oct 2026 | 29 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 4 | ||
| YouGov | 20 Oct 2026 | 28 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | ||
| GMS | 19 Oct 2026 | 30 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | ||
| Min – Max | 27–30 | 18–23 | 14–16 | 12–15 | 9.5–11 | 3–5 | 3–4 | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
If the federal election were today: what parliament would look like
Projected seat distribution from the polling average, 630 seats, majority from 316.
- AfD202
- CDU/CSU144
- Grüne110
- SPD98
- Linke76
AfD would be the largest group with 202 of 630 seats; a majority needs 316. FDP and BSW would miss the threshold and win no seats.
Sunday question in the 16 states
Largest party in the polling average for each state parliament. Each row leads to the page with all polls, seat distribution and coalitions of that state.
| State | Largest party | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Baden-Württemberg | Grüne 30.0% | 15 Oct 2026 |
| Bavaria | CSU 37.0% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Berlin | Linke 22.0% | 8 Oct 2026 |
| Brandenburg | AfD 38.5% | 9 Oct 2026 |
| Bremen | CDU 22.5% | 19 Aug 2026 |
| Hamburg | SPD 30.0% | 30 Sep 2026 |
| Hesse | CDU 25.0% | 27 Oct 2026 |
| Lower Saxony | SPD 26.0% | 11 Sep 2026 |
| Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania | AfD 37.2% | 29 Oct 2026 |
| North Rhine-Westphalia | CDU 29.0% | 16 Oct 2026 |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | CDU 28.0% | 20 Aug 2026 |
| Saarland | SPD 33.0% | 4 Nov 2026 |
| Saxony | AfD 41.0% | 11 Nov 2026 |
| Saxony-Anhalt | AfD 42.0% | 3 Sep 2026 |
| Schleswig-Holstein | CDU 30.0% | 14 Jul 2026 |
| Thuringia | AfD 40.0% | 6 Nov 2026 |
What happened recently
New polls, official results and fixed election dates of the past weeks, each with its date.
- New pollFederal election: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF-Politbarometer
- New pollFederal election: Ipsos for DER SPIEGEL
- New pollFederal election: INSA for BILD
- New pollFederal election: Forsa for RTL / n-tv
- New pollFederal election: INSA for BILD am Sonntag
- New pollFederal election: Infratest dimap for ARD-Tagesthemen
- PeopleMarkus Fischbach new in parliament: Rheinland-Pfalz
- New pollFederal election: INSA for BILD
What the Sunday question tells you, and what it does not
Pollsters usually survey 1,000 to 2,500 eligible voters per poll, by phone, online or a mix. Raw answers are weighted by age, gender, region, education and past voting behaviour; undecided voters and non-voters are excluded. The published figure is each party's share among those naming a party.
The Sunday question measures the mood on the day of the survey; it is not a forecast. How an expectation for election day is derived from it is shown in the election forecast. Each single poll carries a margin of error of roughly two to three points per party; averaging several pollsters smooths out outliers.
Which pollsters systematically rate whom higher or lower is shown under house effects, their accuracy before past elections under pollsters compared. The terms are explained in the election glossary.
Frequently asked questions about the Sunday question
- If the federal election were held today, who would win?
- Averaged across 10 pollsters, AfD leads with 28.0%, ahead of CDU/CSU with 20.0% (as of 13 Nov 2026). Who governs is decided by the seat distribution and coalition building, not by first place alone.
- How often is the Sunday question asked?
- Forsa and INSA publish weekly, YouGov mostly every two weeks, Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Allensbach, GMS and Verian roughly monthly. For the Bundestag this adds up to three to five polls per week.
- Is the Sunday question an election forecast?
- No. It measures the current mood. A forecast additionally accounts for the uncertainty until election day and the historical deviation of polls from results.
- How is the polling average calculated?
- We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 45 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.
- Why do pollsters differ?
- Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.