Sunday question Schleswig-Holstein: if the state election were this Sunday
"Which party would you vote for if the state election were held next Sunday?" This page shows the answer for Schleswig-Holstein averaged across the 2 pollsters whose latest poll is at most 180 days old, compared with the result of the last election on 8 May 2022. Below: the latest poll from each pollster and the trend.
Sunday question Schleswig-Holstein: average of all pollsters
One column per pollster with the date of its latest poll, on the right the average and the last election result.
| Party | Average 14 Jul 2026 | INSA 14 Jul 2026 | Infratest dimap 16 Apr 2026 | 2022 election |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDU | 30.0 | 27.0 | 33.0 | 43.4 |
| Grüne | 18.0 | 17.0 | 19.0 | 18.3 |
| AfD | 16.5 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 4.4 |
| SPD | 13.5 | 15.0 | 12.0 | 16.0 |
| Linke | 6.5 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 1.7 |
| SSW | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.7 |
| FDP | 5.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 6.4 |
| Others | 5.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.1 |
Values in percent, latest poll per pollster within the averaging window. Bold: highest value per party.
CDU leads with 30.0%, 12.0 points ahead of Grüne (18.0%). Biggest movement over 180 days: CDU −9.0 and Grüne +5.0. Around the 5% threshold: SSW 5.5% and FDP 5.0%.
The latest Sunday question from every pollster for Schleswig-Holstein
One row per pollster, each showing its most recently published federal poll. Differences between pollsters are normal: they sample, weight and treat undecided voters differently.
| Pollster | Published | CDU | Grüne | AfD | SPD | Linke | SSW | FDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 14 Jul 2026 | 27 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 16 Apr 2026 | 33 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
If the state election were today: what parliament would look like
Projected seat distribution from the polling average, 69 seats, majority from 35.
- CDU21
- Grüne13
- AfD12
- SPD10
- Linke5
- FDP4
- SSW4
CDU would be the largest group with 21 of 69 seats; a majority needs 35.
Polling trend Schleswig-Holstein: how the Sunday question has moved
What happened recently
New polls, official results and fixed election dates of the past weeks, each with its date.
- PeopleMarkus Fischbach new in parliament: Rheinland-Pfalz
- PeopleJürgen Harrer new in parliament: Hessen
- Local electionsLower Saxony local elections: data as of 31 Oct 2026
- PeopleStefan Evers: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleAnne Helm: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleKai Wegner: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleMartin Pätzold: mandate ended, Berlin
- PeopleAlexander J. Herrmann: mandate ended, Berlin
What the Sunday question tells you, and what it does not
Pollsters usually survey 1,000 to 2,500 eligible voters per poll, by phone, online or a mix. Raw answers are weighted by age, gender, region, education and past voting behaviour; undecided voters and non-voters are excluded. The published figure is each party's share among those naming a party.
The Sunday question measures the mood on the day of the survey; it is not a forecast. How an expectation for election day is derived from it is shown in the election forecast. Each single poll carries a margin of error of roughly two to three points per party; averaging several pollsters smooths out outliers.
Which pollsters systematically rate whom higher or lower is shown under house effects, their accuracy before past elections under pollsters compared. The terms are explained in the election glossary.
Frequently asked questions about the Sunday question
- If the state election in Schleswig-Holstein were held today, who would win?
- Averaged across 2 pollsters, CDU leads with 30.0%, ahead of Grüne with 18.0% (as of 14 Jul 2026). Whether that becomes a government is decided by the seat distribution.
- When is the next state election in Schleswig-Holstein?
- The next state election in Schleswig-Holstein is 18 April 2027. The last one took place on 8 May 2022.
- How often is the Sunday question asked for Schleswig-Holstein?
- In the past twelve months 2 polls from 2 pollsters were published. Polling is far more frequent before state elections than mid-term.
- How is the polling average calculated?
- We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 180 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.
- Why do pollsters differ?
- Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.
More on Schleswig-Holstein
Sunday question in the other states