Brandenburg polling average

Brandenburg state election: latest polls and 2024 result

Coat of arms of Brandenburg

Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, as of 9 October 2026 (29 days ago). Next election: expected autumn 2029; see also the Brandenburg state election 2029 forecast. Sunday question Brandenburg: average, pollsters and trend.

Next electionautumn 2029expected, see the forecastLast election 22 Sep 2024SPD 30.9%official result, all partiesGovernmentSPD + BSW25 of 88 seats according to the polls, no majorityPolls, as of 9 Oct 2026AfD 38.5%leading in the average of all pollsters
Polling average Brandenburg
Average of each pollster's latest poll, shares in percent

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 22 Sep 2024.

AfD leads with 38.5%, 17.5 points ahead of SPD (21.0%). Biggest movement over 120 days: AfD +4.0 and CDU −3.5. Around the 5% threshold: BSW 5.5%.

How is the polling average calculated?

We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 120 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.

Why do pollsters differ?

Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 9 Oct 2026
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Averaging the 2 latest polls for the Brandenburg state election, AfD leads with 38.5%, followed by SPD on 21.0%.

Lead at the top
AfD 17.5 points ahead of SPD
Around the 5% threshold
BSW 5.5%
Movement over 120 days
AfD +4.0 · CDU −3.5 · Linke +2.5
Two-party majorities
AfD + SPD · AfD + Linke · AfD + CDU
Current government
SPD + BSW: 25 of 88 seats, no majority
Basis
2 pollsters, latest poll 9 October 2026
Basis

These polls feed into the average

Each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.

Sunday question Brandenburg state election: values per pollster, average and last election result
PartyAverage
9 Oct 2026
INSA
9 Oct 2026
Infratest dimap
24 Jun 2026
2024 election
AfD38.540.037.029.2
SPD21.020.022.030.9
Linke10.59.012.03.0
CDU10.59.012.012.1
Grüne6.57.06.04.1
BSW5.57.04.013.5
Others7.58.07.07.2

Values in percent, latest poll per pollster within the averaging window. Bold: highest value per party.

Polls in the average for the Brandenburg state election, as of 9 Oct 2026, values in per cent
PollsterPublishedAfDSPDLinkeCDUGrüneBSWOthers
INSA9 Oct 2026402099778
Infratest dimap24 Jun 202637221212647
Projected

Seat distribution in the Landtag of Brandenburg

Under Sainte-Laguë, the 88 seats would split into 37 for AfD, 20 for SPD, 10 for Linke, 10 for CDU, 6 for Grüne, 5 for BSW. Regular size 88 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Five per cent threshold, waived for parties with one constituency seat and for lists of the Sorbian minority

Seat distribution Brandenburg
Projected seat distribution based on the polling average
AfD: 37 seatsSPD: 20 seatsLinke: 10 seatsCDU: 10 seatsGrüne: 6 seatsBSW: 5 seatsMajority from 4588of 88 seats
  • AfD37
  • SPD20
  • Linke10
  • CDU10
  • Grüne6
  • BSW5

AfD would be the largest group with 37 of 88 seats; a majority needs 45.

How is the seat distribution calculated?

Seats are allocated by the Hare/Niemeyer method among all parties above the 5% threshold (Fünf-Prozent-Hürde, Ausnahme bei einem Direktmandat und für Listen der sorbischen Minderheit), based on the polling average. The parliament has 88 seats; a majority needs 45. Overhang or levelling seats and constituency effects are not modelled.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 9 Oct 2026
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Majorities

Which coalitions would have a majority?

All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.

Coalition calculator Brandenburg
Seats based on the polling average, tap parties to test an alliance
Coalition calculator: tap the parties
SPD + BSW
SPD: 20 seatsBSW: 5 seatsAfD: 37 seatsLinke: 10 seatsCDU: 10 seatsGrüne: 6 seats25/88
20 seats short of a majority
Majorities
Seats based on the current polling average, 88 regular seats, majority from 45.

3 two-party alliances have a majority: AfD + SPD, AfD + Linke and AfD + CDU. The current government (SPD and BSW) would lose its majority with 25 seats.

Which coalitions are shown?

All two- and three-party alliances with at least 45 of 88 seats. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. Tap parties in the calculator to test any other combination; exclusions can be set under Settings.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 9 Oct 2026
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  • SPD + BSWGovernment, no majority25 of 88
  • AfD + SPD57 of 88
  • AfD + Linke47 of 88
  • AfD + CDU47 of 88
  • AfD + Grüne + BSW48 of 88
Coalition timeline Brandenburg
Arithmetic majorities in the polling average at each month's end, last 48 months; majority from 45 of 88 seats
majorityno majority

SPD + BSW has had no majority in the last 48 months; currently holding a majority: AfD + SPD (throughout the period) and AfD + CDU (for 14 consecutive months).

How is the coalition timeline calculated?

For the end of each of the last 48 months the polling average is computed as it stood on that date: the latest poll from each pollster within the preceding 120 days, averaged without weighting. Seats are then allocated using the parliament's method and threshold. An alliance has a majority in a month if its seats add up to at least half plus one. The most recent month uses the current average.

Which alliances are shown?

The incumbent government, the alliances with a majority in the current average and the pairs of the four largest parties. A filled cell means an arithmetic majority in that month, a pale cell none. The bar says nothing about whether an alliance is politically feasible.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · own calculation · As of: 9 Oct 2026
Our analysis

How secure are the majorities?

Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.

Majority probabilities Brandenburg
Share of simulations in which an alliance holds a majority

Majority in parliament

  • SPD + BSWGovernmentunder 1%
  • AfD + SPDover 99%
  • AfD + Linke86%
  • AfD + CDU85%
  • AfD + Grüne + BSW80%
  • SPD + Linkeunder 1%
  • SPD + CDUunder 1%
  • Linke + CDUunder 1%

Clearing the electoral threshold

  • BSW (±1.3)65%
  • Grüne (±1.8)79%
  • CDU (±3)97%

3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.

AfD and SPD holds a majority in 100% of 3,000 simulations. Uncertain at the 5% threshold: BSW (65% above) and Grüne (79% above).

How are the probabilities calculated?

We recompute the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied poll values. The variation per party combines the sampling error of the average with the historical error of polls before elections since 2017. The probability is the share of runs in which an alliance reaches 45 seats.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 9 Oct 2026
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Polling trend

Polling trend: how the polls moved since 10 December 2024

Polling trend Brandenburg
Rolling average and individual polls, shares in percent
010203040Jan 25Mar 25May 25Jul 25Sep 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26Sep 26AfDSPDLinkeCDUGrüneBSW
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 120 days. Period 10 Dec 2024 to 9 Oct 2026. Tap the tiles to hide parties.

Since 10 Dec 2024 AfD +6.5 and Linke +3.3 gained, while BSW −4.5 and CDU −4.1 lost points.

How does the rolling average work?

Each point is one poll. The line is the average of all polls of the previous 120 days, one per pollster, so a single outlier moves it only slightly. Choose a period, an end month or the area view to explore the history back to 2017.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 9 Oct 2026
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Google searches

Search interest by party in Brandenburg

Each party's share of Google searches for the eight parties in the state, last 90 days. For comparison the current poll rating, where the party is listed in the state's polls.

Search interest by party in Brandenburg
Share of search interest across the eight parties in per cent, last 90 days
Search share and poll rating by party in Brandenburg
PartySearch sharePolls
AfD54.2%38.5%
CDU/CSU16.2%10.5%
Linke10.1%10.5%
SPD9.2%21.0%
BSW6.2%5.5%
Grüne2.8%6.5%
FDP1.2%–
Freie Wähler0.0%–

In Brandenburg, AfD accounts for 54.2% of the search interest across the eight parties, ahead of CDU/CSU on 16.2%. In the state's polls AfD stands at 38.5%.

How is the search share by state calculated?

Google Trends reports for each state how search interest is distributed across the compared parties over the last 90 days. Two groups of five are linked through the AfD as a common yardstick; CDU and CSU are added together.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Google Trends, search interest by topic · As of: 9 Nov 2026

Analysis for all states

Our analysis

Accuracy ahead of the election on 22 Sep 2024

Before the Brandenburg state election on 22 Sep 2024, Institut Wahlkreisprognose came closest to the result with an average error of 1.3 points per party, Infratest dimap was furthest away with 2.1 points. All pollsters underestimated SPD (by 4.4 points on average) and overestimated CDU (by 2.8 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.

Deviation of the last polls before the election of 22 Sep 2024 from the result, in percentage points
PollsterPoll datedSPDAfDBSWCDUGrüneLinkeBVB/FWFDPØ abs.
Result 22 Sep 202430.9%29.2%13.5%12.1%4.1%3.0%2.6%0.8%
Institut Wahlkreisprognose21 Sep 2024 (1 day before)-2.9-2.2-1.0+1.4-0.1+0.5+1.9-0.31.3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen19 Sep 2024 (3 days before)-3.9-1.2-0.5+1.9+0.4+1.0+0.9–1.4
INSA17 Sep 2024 (5 days before)-5.9-1.2+0.5+3.9-0.1±0+1.4+1.21.8
Infratest dimap12 Sep 2024 (10 days before)-4.9-2.2-0.5+3.9+0.4+1.0+1.9–2.1

Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.

Archive

All polls for the Brandenburg state election

78 polls since 21 June 2017. Pollsters: INSA, Infratest dimap, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Forsa, IFM Berlin, Policy Matters, Civey.

The 40 latest polls for the Brandenburg state election, values in per cent
PollsterPublishedAfDSPDLinkeCDUGrüneBSWOthers
INSA9 Oct 2026402099778
Infratest dimap24 Jun 202637221212647
INSA20 Mar 20263424714588
INSA15 Jan 20263425813587
Infratest dimap10 Dec 20253522914578
INSA18 Sep 20253424913493
Infratest dimap25 Jun 20253223914598
INSA28 Jan 202529255173134
Infratest dimap10 Dec 202430284155126
Institut Wahlkreisprognose21 Sep 202427283.513.5412.56.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose19 Sep 202428.526.53.5154125
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen19 Sep 202428274144.5136
INSA17 Sep 202428253164144
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen13 Sep 202429263155145
Infratest dimap12 Sep 202427264164.5135
Institut Wahlkreisprognose5 Sep 20243020.53.5155.514.55.5
Infratest dimap5 Sep 202427234185155
INSA6 Aug 202424205195174
INSA16 Jul 202424195187173
Infratest dimap11 Jul 202423194197166
Institut Wahlkreisprognose24 Jun 202429163.516.55176
INSA24 May 202425196197133
Infratest dimap10 Apr 202426226188107
Institut Wahlkreisprognose8 Apr 202427215.51579.57.5
INSA3 Apr 202425197198123
INSA17 Jan 202428176188132
Forsa11 Jan 20243222616745
Institut Wahlkreisprognose2 Nov 20233227713.56.5–5.5
Infratest dimap13 Sep 202332208188–4
Institut Wahlkreisprognose14 Aug 202330258157–6
INSA4 Jul 2023282110189–6
IFM Berlin9 Jun 20232424121710–2
Infratest dimap26 Apr 202323227239–6
INSA5 Apr 20232521101910–6
Institut Wahlkreisprognose13 Mar 20232623.58179–7
Policy Matters28 Dec 202223279177–6
Institut Wahlkreisprognose25 Nov 20222626813.510–6
INSA11 Oct 20222522101711–6
Infratest dimap28 Sep 2022242491811–6
Institut Wahlkreisprognose12 Sep 20222526.561212–6.5
Min – Max23–4016–283–129–233–124–172–8

For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.

The 40 latest of 78 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.

Background

The Brandenburg state election at a glance

At the last Brandenburg state election on 22 September 2024, SPD became the largest party with 30.9%, defending first place from 2019. The biggest move compared with 2019: Linke lost 7.7 points.

Brandenburg is governed by SPD and BSW. On the current polling average this alliance would win 25 of 88 seats, and would no longer have a majority.

78 polls for the Brandenburg state election have been published since 21 June 2017, 4 of them this year. Most come from Infratest dimap (24), INSA (20), Institut Wahlkreisprognose (14). Recently a new poll has appeared every 63 days on average.

The next Brandenburg state election is expected in autumn 2029. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 16 or over is eligible to vote.

  • One constituency seat is enough to bypass the electoral threshold.
  • Lists of the Sorbian minority are exempt from the threshold.

Results: 22 Sep 2024 · 1 Sep 2019. Pollster accuracy.

Parliament
Landtag of Brandenburg
Seats
88 (regular size)
Constituencies
44
Threshold
5 per cent
Seat allocation
Hare/Niemeyer
Votes
two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
Term
5 years
Voting age
16 years
Last election
22 September 2024
Next election
expected autumn 2029
Government
SPD, BSW
State capital
Potsdam
2024 European election

2024 European election in Brandenburg

In the European election on 9 June 2024, AfD came first in Brandenburg with 27.5% of the vote. The bars show the European election shares, the small figures the gap to the 2025 federal election in the same area.

2024 European election in Brandenburg
Vote shares in per cent, difference from the 2025 federal election in points

Change compared with 2025 federal election.

In the 2024 European election, AfD was the strongest party in Brandenburg with 27.5%, −5.0 points compared with the 2025 federal election. Turnout was 67.5% (2025 federal election: 81.6%).

Why do the European and federal elections differ?

The European election has no electoral threshold, so small parties such as Volt, Die PARTEI or the animal-welfare party win more votes. Turnout is much lower, and the political mood shifted between June 2024 and February 2025. The single European-election vote is compared with the second vote of the federal election in the same area; parties that count as Others in 2025 get no difference.

Where do these figures come from?

Official final result of the 2024 European election from the Federal Returning Officer (kerg2.csv), votes per district and independent city.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Federal Returning Officer · As of: 9 Jun 2024
2024 European election and 2025 federal election in Brandenburg: shares by party
PartyVotes 2024European election 2024Federal election 2025Difference
AfD380,71727.5%32.5%-5.0
CDU253,93718.4%18.1%+0.3
BSW191,29013.8%10.7%+3.1
SPD181,69713.1%14.8%-1.7
Grüne82,6726.0%6.6%-0.6
Linke61,5204.4%10.7%-6.3
FDP44,7643.2%3.2%±0
Die PARTEI31,8062.3%––
Freie Wähler29,3492.1%1.5%+0.6
Tierschutzpartei23,2001.7%––
Volt22,0961.6%0.7%+0.9
ÖDP4,5140.3%––
Others75,9485.5%––

Die PARTEI, Tierschutzpartei, ÖDP: counted as Others in the 2025 federal election, so no difference is shown.

Source: Federal Returning Officer, 2024 European election, results by state and district (kerg2.csv) (file), final result, retrieved 28 Sep 2026, Data licence Germany, attribution 2.0. Berlin East and Berlin West are aggregated from the boroughs as in the 2025 federal election. Comparison values: second votes of the 2025 federal election in the same area. Compiled by wahlergebnisse.io.

Profile

Brandenburg in figures

Key facts about the place from official statistics and Wikidata, so the election result can be put in context. The figures describe, they do not explain.

Brandenburg in figures
Official statistics and Wikidata, date per source below
Population
Population
2,551,889 (as of 2025-12-31)
Area
29,654.2 km²
Population density
86 inhabitants per km²
Under 19
17.0%
67 and older
22.5%
Foreign nationals (2022 census)
5.8%
Economy
Employees subject to social insurance (place of work)
885,637 (as of 2025-12-31)
Largest sectors
Health and social work 18% · Trade and vehicle repair 10% · Manufacturing 10%
Commuter balance
-139,998 (more out-commuters than in-commuters)
Largest companies headquartered here
Höffner (Möbelhaus)
6,000 employees
Sconto Möbel
761 employees
Rieck Logistik-Gruppe
700 employees (2020)
Investitionsbank des Landes Brandenburg
677 employees (2019)
Place
Elevation
0 m
First mention or foundation
1990
Twin towns
1

Brandenburg has 2,551,889 inhabitants. The largest sector is Health and social work with 18% of employees. The largest company headquartered in Brandenburg is Höffner (Möbelhaus) with 6,000 employees.

Where do the profile figures come from?

Population, area and coordinates from the Federal Statistical Office's municipality register, employees, sectors and unemployment from the Federal Employment Agency, age structure from the 2022 census, coat of arms, website and companies from Wikidata and Wikimedia Commons. All sources are openly licensed and linked below the list.

Does the profile explain the election result?

No. It describes the place so readers can put figures in context. Whether sector, age or density relate to voting can only be tested across many places, not from a single result.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikidata (CC0 1.0) · Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Gemeindeverzeichnis GV-ISys (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0) · Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (© Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nutzung mit Quellenangabe) · Zensus 2022, Statistische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder, Regionaltabelle Demografie (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0) · As of: 2026-11-03

Sources: Wikidata (CC0 1.0) · Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Gemeindeverzeichnis GV-ISys (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0) · Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (© Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nutzung mit Quellenangabe) · Zensus 2022, Statistische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder, Regionaltabelle Demografie (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0)

Map

Brandenburg: largest party by district

Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.

Brandenburg: largest party by district, 2025 federal election
Largest party by second votes per district and independent city

Strongest party: AfD in 17 districts and Linke in 1 district of 18. Highest share: AfD with 43.0% in Spree-Neiße.

What does the map show?

Each district is coloured by the party with the highest second-vote share at the 2025 federal election; the intensity follows the share. Tap or hover a district for the exact figure and turnout, click to open the district page with all municipalities.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Federal Returning Officer, © GeoBasis-DE / BKG 2025 · As of: 23 Feb 2025
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All districts and municipalities in Brandenburg · Map of Germany

On the ground

Districts, cities and constituencies in Brandenburg

Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.

Districts and independent cities

The largest cities

Constituencies at the 2025 federal election

Brandenburg: constituency seats, 2025 federal election
Party with the most first votes per constituency, share in percent

Strongest party: AfD in 9 constituencies and SPD in 1 constituency of 10. Highest share: AfD with 43.0% in 65 Elbe-Elster – Oberspreewald-Lausitz.

What does the map show?

Each constituency is coloured by the party whose candidate won the direct seat at the 2025 federal election (first votes). Click a constituency for its results, candidates and the current nowcast.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Federal Returning Officer, © GeoBasis-DE / BKG 2025 · As of: 23 Feb 2025
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All constituencies in Brandenburg as a list · All districts and municipalities

Since 1990

All Brandenburg state elections since 1990: result, seats and turnout

There have been 8 state elections in Brandenburg since 1990. SPD was the largest party 8 times; most recently SPD led in 2024 with 30.9%. Turnout ranged from 47.9% (2014) to 72.9% (2024).

Shares in percent, seats in brackets. Parties without a seat in any election are counted under Others.

Election results Brandenburg since the first election: share in percent, seats in brackets, turnout and seat total per election
YearTurnoutSeatsSPDAfDBSWCDUGrüneLinke/PDSBVB/FWFDPDVUOthers
202472.9%8830.9% (32)29.2% (30)13.5% (14)12.1% (12)4.1% (0)3.0% (0)2.6% (0)0.8% (0)–1.8%
201961.3%8826.2% (25)23.5% (23)–15.6% (15)10.8% (10)10.7% (10)5.0% (5)4.1% (0)–0.8%
201447.9%8831.9% (30)12.2% (11)–23.0% (21)6.2% (6)18.6% (17)2.7% (3)1.5% (0)–0.2%
200967.0%8833.0% (31)––19.8% (19)5.7% (5)27.2% (26)1.7% (0)7.2% (7)1.1% (0)1.5%
200456.4%8831.9% (33)––19.4% (20)3.6% (0)28.0% (29)–3.3% (0)6.1% (6)5.1%
199954.3%8939.3% (37)––26.6% (25)1.9% (0)23.3% (22)–1.9% (0)5.3% (5)1.7%
199456.3%8854.1% (52)––18.7% (18)2.9% (0)18.7% (18)–2.2% (0)–2.2%
199067.1%8838.2% (36)––29.4% (27)9.3% (6)13.4% (13)–6.6% (6)–1.9%

Source: Landeswahlleitungen und Bundeswahlleiterin, zusammengeführt über wahlrecht.de/ergebnisse; Hamburg 2025: Statistikamt Nord, as of 29 Sep 2026. Official seats including overhang and compensatory seats; predecessor parties merged (Linke/PDS, Grüne/Bündnis 90).

Who won the state elections in Brandenburg?

Largest party per election: 2024 SPD (30.9%), 2019 SPD (26.2%), 2014 SPD (31.9%), 2009 SPD (33.0%), 2004 SPD (31.9%), 1999 SPD (39.3%), 1994 SPD (54.1%), 1990 SPD (38.2%).

Pollsters

Which pollsters survey the Brandenburg state election and when they last did.

Table as CSV

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