Brandenburg state election: latest polls and 2024 result

Each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.

Since 24 June 2024, Infratest dimap has measured BSW on average 2.3 points below the average of the other pollsters, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has measured CDU on average 1.9 points below the average of the other pollsters, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has measured AfD on average 1.5 points above the average of the other pollsters.

Adjusted for these house effects, SPD would stand at 21.9% instead of 23.0%, BSW would stand at 6.9% instead of 6.0%, Linke would stand at 8.9% instead of 9.5%. The current average is therefore shaped by which pollsters published most recently.

Under Sainte-Laguë, the 88 seats would split into 34 for AfD, 22 for SPD, 12 for CDU, 9 for Linke, 6 for BSW, 5 for Grüne. Regular size 88 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Five per cent threshold, waived for parties with one constituency seat and for lists of the Sorbian minority

All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.

Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.

Before the Brandenburg state election on 22 Sep 2024, Institut Wahlkreisprognose came closest to the result with an average error of 1.3 points per party, Infratest dimap was furthest away with 2.1 points. All pollsters underestimated SPD (by 4.4 points on average) and overestimated CDU (by 2.8 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.

77 polls since 21 June 2017. Pollsters: Infratest dimap, INSA, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Forsa, IFM Berlin, Policy Matters, Civey.

Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.

Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.

Which pollsters survey the Brandenburg state election and when they last did.