INSA poll of 28 January 2025 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung (MAZ) / Märkische Oderzeitung (MOZ) / Lausitzer Rundschau (LR)
- Fieldwork period
- 20 to 27 Jan 2025
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD29.0%+1.0
- SPD25.0%±0
- CDU17.0%+1.0
- BSW13.0%-1.0
- Linke5.0%+2.0
- Grüne3.0%-1.0
- FDP2.0%±0
- BVB/FW2.0%-2.0
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 17 Sep 2024.
In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 29.0%, followed by SPD on 25.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 20 to 27 Jan 2025, method Online, commissioned by Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung (MAZ) / Märkische Oderzeitung (MOZ) / Lausitzer Rundschau (LR).
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 17 Sep 2024, Linke gains 2.0 points, BVB/FW loses 2.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU 2.8 points higher and SPD 2.7 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU +2.8average 14.2
- SPD -2.7average 27.7
- BVB/FW -2.2average 4.2
- Grüne -1.5average 4.5
- FDP +1.5average 0.5
- Linke +1.2average 3.8
- AfD +0.7average 28.3
- BSW +0.5average 12.5
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- AfD28
- SPD25
- CDU17
- BSW13
- Linke5
- AfD + SPD53 of 88
- AfD + CDU45 of 88
- SPD + CDU + BSW55 of 88
- SPD + CDU + Linke47 of 88
- AfD + BSW + Linke46 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.