INSA poll of 17 September 2024 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung (MAZ) / Märkische Oderzeitung (MOZ) / Lausitzer Rundschau (LR)
- Fieldwork period
- 9 to 16 Sep 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD28.0%+4.0
- SPD25.0%+5.0
- CDU16.0%-3.0
- BSW14.0%-3.0
- Grüne4.0%-1.0
- BVB/FW4.0%±0
- Linke3.0%-2.0
- FDP2.0%±0
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 6 Aug 2024.
In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 28.0%, followed by SPD on 25.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 9 to 16 Sep 2024, method Online, commissioned by Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung (MAZ) / Märkische Oderzeitung (MOZ) / Lausitzer Rundschau (LR).
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 6 Aug 2024, SPD gains 5.0 points, AfD gains 4.0 points, CDU loses 3.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.0average 5.0
- SPD +0.8average 24.2
- AfD -0.7average 28.7
- CDU +0.7average 15.3
- Linke -0.5average 3.5
- BSW +0.2average 13.8
- BVB/FW ±0average 4.0
- FDP ±0average 2.0
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- AfD30
- SPD26
- CDU17
- BSW15
- AfD + SPD56 of 88
- AfD + CDU47 of 88
- AfD + BSW45 of 88
- SPD + CDU + BSW58 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.