Bavaria state election: latest polls and 2023 result
Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, as of 12 September 2026 (11 days ago). Next election: expected autumn 2028; see also the Bavaria state election 2028 forecast.
- CSU38.0%+1.0
- AfD20.0%+5.4
- Grüne13.0%-1.4
- Freie Wähler12.0%-3.8
- SPD6.0%-2.4
- Linke3.0%+1.5
- BSW3.0%
- FDP2.0%-1.0
- Others3.0%-2.3
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 8 Oct 2023.
Averaging the latest poll for the Bavaria state election, CSU leads with 38.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%.
- Lead at the topCSU 18.0 points ahead of AfD
- Around the 5% thresholdSPD 6.0%
- Movement over 120 daysFreie Wähler +2.0 · AfD +1.3 · SPD −1.3
- Two-party majoritiesCSU + AfD · CSU + Grüne · CSU + Freie Wähler
- Current governmentCSU + Freie Wähler: 101 of 180 seats, majority
- Basis1 pollster, latest poll 12 September 2026
These polls feed into the average
Each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.
| Pollster | Published | CSU | AfD | Grüne | Freie Wähler | SPD | Linke | BSW | FDP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civey | 12 Sep 2026 | 38 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
House effects: which pollster rates whom higher?
Since 12 September 2024, GMS has measured Grüne on average 1.5 points below the average of the other pollsters, Civey has measured AfD on average 1.4 points above the average of the other pollsters, GMS has measured SPD on average 1.4 points below the average of the other pollsters.
Adjusted for these house effects, AfD would stand at 18.6% instead of 20.0%, CSU would stand at 38.9% instead of 38.0%, Grüne would stand at 12.4% instead of 13.0%. The current average is therefore shaped by which pollsters published most recently.
| Pollster | Polls | CSU | AfD | Grüne | Freie Wähler | SPD | Linke | BSW | FDP | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civey | 23 | -0.9 | +1.4 | +0.6 | +0.4 | -0.2 | ±0 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| GMS | 5 | +0.9 | -0.6 | -1.5 | +0.8 | -1.4 | -0.6 | +0.6 | +0.3 | 0.8 |
| Raw average | 38.0% | 20.0% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | ||
| Adjusted for house effects | 38.9%(+0.9) | 18.6%(-1.4) | 12.4%(-0.6) | 11.6%(-0.4) | 6.2%(+0.2) | 3.0% | 3.5%(+0.5) | 2.2%(+0.2) |
Positive: the pollster measures the party higher than the other pollsters' rolling 120-day average on the same day. Only pollsters with at least 3 polls since 12 September 2024.
Seat distribution in the Bavarian Landtag
Under Sainte-Laguë, the 180 seats would split into 77 for CSU, 41 for AfD, 26 for Grüne, 24 for Freie Wähler, 12 for SPD. FDP, Linke, BSW would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 180 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold 5 per cent.
Which coalitions would have a majority?
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.
- CSU + AfD118 of 180
- CSU + Grüne103 of 180
- CSU + Freie WählerGovernment101 of 180
- AfD + Grüne + Freie Wähler91 of 180
How secure are the majorities?
Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.
Majority in parliament
- CSU + Freie WählerGovernment97%
- CSU + AfDover 99%
- CSU + Grüne98%
- AfD + Grüne + Freie Wähler55%
- AfD + Grüneunder 1%
- AfD + Freie Wählerunder 1%
- Grüne + Freie Wählerunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- BSW (±1.3)5%
- Linke (±1.8)13%
- SPD (±2.2)68%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
Polling trend since 17 September 2024
Accuracy ahead of the election on 8 Oct 2023
Before the Bavaria state election on 8 Oct 2023, Institut Wahlkreisprognose came closest to the result with an average error of 0.6 points per party, Infratest dimap was furthest away with 0.7 points. Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.
| Pollster | Poll dated | CSU | Freie Wähler | AfD | Grüne | SPD | FDP | Linke | Bayernpartei | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 8 Oct 2023 | 37.0% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 Oct 2023 (2 days before) | +0.5 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +1.1 | -0.4 | ±0 | -0.5 | – | 0.6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 Oct 2023 (3 days before) | ±0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +1.6 | +0.6 | ±0 | – | – | 0.6 |
| Civey | 2 Oct 2023 (6 days before) | ±0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +0.6 | +0.6 | +1.0 | -0.5 | – | 0.6 |
| GMS | 19 Sep 2023 (19 days before) | -1.0 | +1.2 | -0.6 | -0.4 | +0.6 | ±0 | -0.5 | +0.1 | 0.6 |
| INSA | 4 Oct 2023 (4 days before) | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +0.6 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +0.5 | – | 0.7 |
| Infratest dimap | 28 Sep 2023 (10 days before) | -1.0 | +0.2 | -0.6 | +0.6 | +0.6 | +1.0 | – | – | 0.7 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.
All polls for the Bavarian state election
187 polls since 13 October 2017. Pollsters: Civey, GMS, Infratest dimap, Forsa, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen.
| Pollster | Published | CSU | AfD | Grüne | Freie Wähler | SPD | Linke | BSW | FDP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civey | 12 Sep 2026 | 38 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Civey | 14 Aug 2026 | 38 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Civey | 18 Jul 2026 | 37 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Civey | 14 Jun 2026 | 38 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Civey | 16 May 2026 | 37 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Civey | 19 Apr 2026 | 38 | 19 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Civey | 14 Mar 2026 | 39 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| GMS | 3 Mar 2026 | 39 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Civey | 14 Feb 2026 | 40 | 18 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| Civey | 19 Jan 2026 | 40 | 18 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 14 Jan 2026 | 39 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 3 | – | – | 9 |
| GMS | 5 Jan 2026 | 39 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Civey | 17 Dec 2025 | 37 | 21 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| GMS | 11 Dec 2025 | 40 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| Civey | 15 Nov 2025 | 40 | 20 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Civey | 11 Oct 2025 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| GMS | 30 Sep 2025 | 39 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Civey | 13 Sep 2025 | 40 | 20 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Forsa | 12 Sep 2025 | 37 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Civey | 18 Aug 2025 | 41 | 20 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Civey | 14 Jul 2025 | 37 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Civey | 14 Jun 2025 | 39 | 22 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Civey | 10 May 2025 | 39 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Civey | 12 Apr 2025 | 39 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| Civey | 15 Mar 2025 | 41 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Civey | 17 Feb 2025 | 41 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Civey | 22 Jan 2025 | 43 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 9 Jan 2025 | 42 | 13 | 12.5 | 12 | 8 | – | – | – | 12.5 |
| Civey | 14 Dec 2024 | 42 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Civey | 16 Nov 2024 | 44 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| INSA | 20 Oct 2024 | 43 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 8 | – | 5 | – | 5 |
| GMS | 17 Sep 2024 | 42 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| Forsa | 8 Aug 2024 | 43 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 8 | – | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| GMS | 7 May 2024 | 41 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Civey | 16 Mar 2024 | 42 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 1 | – | 2 | 7 |
| GMS | 6 Feb 2024 | 42 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 17 Jan 2024 | 40 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 7 | – | – | 3 | 9 |
| GMS | 3 Jan 2024 | 41 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 6 | 1 | – | 3 | 5 |
| Civey | 18 Nov 2023 | 40 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 2 | – | 3 | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 Oct 2023 | 37.5 | 14 | 15.5 | 15 | 8 | 1 | – | 3 | 6 |
The 40 latest of 187 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.
The Bavarian state election at a glance
At the last Bavarian state election on 8 October 2023, CSU became the largest party with 37.0%, defending first place from 2018. The biggest move compared with 2018: AfD gained 4.4 points.
Bavaria is governed by CSU and Freie Wähler. On the current polling average this alliance would win 101 of 180 seats and would keep its majority.
187 polls for the Bavarian state election have been published since 13 October 2017, 12 of them this year. Most come from Civey (55), GMS (48), INSA (22). Recently a new poll has appeared every 22 days on average.
The next Bavarian state election is expected in autumn 2028. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 18 or over is eligible to vote.
- Seats are allocated separately in each of the seven administrative regions.
- The five per cent threshold applies statewide but is measured against the sum of first and second votes.
Results: 8 Oct 2023 · 14 Oct 2018. Pollster accuracy.
- Parliament
- Bavarian Landtag
- Seats
- 180 (regular size)
- Constituencies
- 91
- Threshold
- 5 per cent
- Seat allocation
- Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
- Votes
- two votes, both count towards the seat distribution; the second vote goes to a person on the regional list
- Term
- 5 years
- Voting age
- 18 years
- Last election
- 8 October 2023
- Next election
- expected autumn 2028
- Government
- CSU, Freie Wähler
- State capital
- München
Bavaria: largest party by district
Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.
All districts and municipalities in Bavaria · Map of Germany
Districts, cities and constituencies in Bavaria
Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.
Districts and independent cities
The largest cities
- MünchenCSU 29.4%
- NürnbergCSU 29.2%
- AugsburgCSU 28.4%
- RegensburgCSU 29.4%
- WürzburgCSU 28.5%
- FürthCSU 27.8%
- IngolstadtCSU 36.7%
- ErlangenCSU 27.6%
- BambergCSU 29.3%
- BayreuthCSU 31.7%
- AschaffenburgCSU 32.7%
- LandshutCSU 33.4%
- Kempten (Allgäu)CSU 30.9%
- RosenheimCSU 32.3%
- Neu-UlmCSU 32.1%
- PassauCSU 34.8%
Constituencies at the 2025 federal election
All constituencies in Bavaria as a list · All districts and municipalities
Pollsters
Which pollsters survey the Bavarian state election and when they last did.
- Civey13 Oct 2017
- GMS19 Oct 2017
- Infratest dimap10 Jan 2018
- Forsa10 Nov 2017
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose15 Dec 2021
- INSA5 Nov 2017
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen21 Sep 2018