Bavaria state election: latest polls and 2023 result
Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, as of 20 October 2026 (18 days ago). Next election: expected autumn 2028; see also the Bavaria state election 2028 forecast. Sunday question Bavaria: average, pollsters and trend.
CSU leads with 37.0%, 16.7 points ahead of AfD (20.3%). Biggest movement over 120 days: AfD +1.8 and CSU −1.5.
How is the polling average calculated?
We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 120 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.
Why do pollsters differ?
Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.
Averaging the 3 latest polls for the Bavaria state election, CSU leads with 37.0%, followed by AfD on 20.3%.
- Lead at the top
- CSU 16.7 points ahead of AfD
- Movement over 120 days
- AfD +1.8 · CSU −1.5
- Two-party majorities
- CSU + AfD · CSU + Grüne · CSU + Freie Wähler
- Current government
- CSU + Freie Wähler: 96 of 180 seats, majority
- Basis
- 3 pollsters, latest poll 20 October 2026
These polls feed into the average
Each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.
| Party | Average 20 Oct 2026 | Infratest dimap 20 Oct 2026 | GMS 19 Oct 2026 | Civey 17 Oct 2026 | 2023 election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 37.0 | 36.0 | 37.0 | 38.0 | 37.0 |
| AfD | 20.3 | 21.0 | 22.0 | 18.0 | 14.6 |
| Grüne | 14.3 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 14.4 |
| Freie Wähler | 10.3 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 15.8 |
| SPD | 7.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 8.4 |
| Linke | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| FDP | 2.0 | – | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| Others | 5.7 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
Values in percent, latest poll per pollster within the averaging window. Bold: highest value per party.
| Pollster | Published | CSU | AfD | Grüne | Freie Wähler | SPD | Linke | FDP | Others | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infratest dimap | 20 Oct 2026 | 36 | 21 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 4 | – | 7 | ||
| GMS | 19 Oct 2026 | 37 | 22 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | ||
| Civey | 17 Oct 2026 | 38 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | ||
| Min – Max | 36–38 | 18–22 | 13–15 | 9–12 | 6–8 | 3–4 | – | 5–7 | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
House effects: which pollster rates whom higher?
Since 20 October 2024, GMS has measured SPD on average 1.3 points below the average of the other pollsters, Civey has measured CSU on average 1.0 points below the average of the other pollsters.
Adjusted for these house effects, SPD would stand at 7.6% instead of 7.0%, Linke would stand at 3.6% instead of 3.3%, AfD would stand at 20.0% instead of 20.3%. The current average is therefore shaped by which pollsters published most recently.
| Pollster | Polls | CSU | AfD | Grüne | Freie Wähler | SPD | Linke | FDP | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civey | 24 | -1.0 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| GMS | 5 | +0.5 | +0.3 | -0.8 | +0.2 | -1.3 | -0.5 | +0.2 | 0.5 |
| Raw average | 37.0% | 20.3% | 14.3% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | ||
| Adjusted for house effects | 37.2%(+0.2) | 20.0%(-0.3) | 14.5%(+0.2) | 10.1%(-0.2) | 7.6%(+0.6) | 3.6%(+0.3) | 2.0% |
Positive: the pollster measures the party higher than the other pollsters' rolling 120-day average on the same day. Only pollsters with at least 3 polls since 20 October 2024.
Seat distribution in the Bavarian Landtag
Under Sainte-Laguë, the 180 seats would split into 75 for CSU, 41 for AfD, 29 for Grüne, 21 for Freie Wähler, 14 for SPD. FDP, Linke would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 180 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold 5 per cent.
- CSU75
- AfD41
- Grüne29
- Freie Wähler21
- SPD14
CSU would be the largest group with 75 of 180 seats; a majority needs 91. Linke and FDP would miss the threshold and win no seats.
How is the seat distribution calculated?
Seats are allocated by the Sainte-Laguë/Schepers method among all parties above the 5% threshold, based on the polling average. The parliament has 180 seats; a majority needs 91. Overhang or levelling seats and constituency effects are not modelled.
Which coalitions would have a majority?
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.
3 two-party alliances have a majority: CSU + AfD, CSU + Grüne and CSU + Freie Wähler. The current government (CSU and Freie Wähler) would keep its majority with 96 seats.
Which coalitions are shown?
All two- and three-party alliances with at least 91 of 180 seats. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. Tap parties in the calculator to test any other combination; exclusions can be set under Settings.
- CSU + AfD116 of 180
- CSU + Grüne104 of 180
- CSU + Freie WählerGovernment96 of 180
- AfD + Grüne + Freie Wähler91 of 180
CSU + Freie Wähler had a majority in all 48 months; currently also holding a majority: CSU + AfD (throughout the period) and CSU + Grüne (throughout the period).
How is the coalition timeline calculated?
For the end of each of the last 48 months the polling average is computed as it stood on that date: the latest poll from each pollster within the preceding 120 days, averaged without weighting. Seats are then allocated using the parliament's method and threshold. An alliance has a majority in a month if its seats add up to at least half plus one. The most recent month uses the current average.
Which alliances are shown?
The incumbent government, the alliances with a majority in the current average and the pairs of the four largest parties. A filled cell means an arithmetic majority in that month, a pale cell none. The bar says nothing about whether an alliance is politically feasible.
How secure are the majorities?
Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.
Majority in parliament
- CSU + Freie WählerGovernment82%
- CSU + AfDover 99%
- CSU + Grüne99%
- AfD + Grüne + Freie Wähler50%
- AfD + Grüneunder 1%
- AfD + Freie Wählerunder 1%
- Grüne + Freie Wählerunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- Linke (±1.8)16%
- SPD (±2.2)83%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
CSU and AfD holds a majority in 100% of 3,000 simulations. Uncertain at the 5% threshold: Linke (16% above) and SPD (83% above).
How are the probabilities calculated?
We recompute the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied poll values. The variation per party combines the sampling error of the average with the historical error of polls before elections since 2017. The probability is the share of runs in which an alliance reaches 91 seats.
Polling trend: how the polls moved since 20 October 2024
Since 20 Oct 2024 AfD +6.1 and Grüne +2.4 gained, while CSU −5.8 and Freie Wähler −1.3 lost points.
How does the rolling average work?
Each point is one poll. The line is the average of all polls of the previous 120 days, one per pollster, so a single outlier moves it only slightly. Choose a period, an end month or the area view to explore the history back to 2017.
Search interest by party in Bavaria
Each party's share of Google searches for the eight parties in the state, last 90 days. For comparison the current poll rating, where the party is listed in the state's polls.
In Bavaria, AfD accounts for 54.1% of the search interest across the eight parties, ahead of CDU/CSU on 17.8%. In the state's polls AfD stands at 20.3%.
How is the search share by state calculated?
Google Trends reports for each state how search interest is distributed across the compared parties over the last 90 days. Two groups of five are linked through the AfD as a common yardstick; CDU and CSU are added together.
Accuracy ahead of the election on 8 Oct 2023
Before the Bavaria state election on 8 Oct 2023, Institut Wahlkreisprognose came closest to the result with an average error of 0.6 points per party, Infratest dimap was furthest away with 0.7 points. Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.
| Pollster | Poll dated | CSU | Freie Wähler | AfD | Grüne | SPD | FDP | Linke | Bayernpartei | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 8 Oct 2023 | 37.0% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 Oct 2023 (2 days before) | +0.5 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +1.1 | -0.4 | ±0 | -0.5 | – | 0.6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 Oct 2023 (3 days before) | ±0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +1.6 | +0.6 | ±0 | – | – | 0.6 |
| Civey | 2 Oct 2023 (6 days before) | ±0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +0.6 | +0.6 | +1.0 | -0.5 | – | 0.6 |
| GMS | 19 Sep 2023 (19 days before) | -1.0 | +1.2 | -0.6 | -0.4 | +0.6 | ±0 | -0.5 | +0.1 | 0.6 |
| INSA | 4 Oct 2023 (4 days before) | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +0.6 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +0.5 | – | 0.7 |
| Infratest dimap | 28 Sep 2023 (10 days before) | -1.0 | +0.2 | -0.6 | +0.6 | +0.6 | +1.0 | – | – | 0.7 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.
All polls for the Bavarian state election
190 polls since 13 October 2017. Pollsters: Infratest dimap, GMS, Civey, Forsa, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen.
| Pollster | Published | CSU | AfD | Grüne | Freie Wähler | SPD | Linke | FDP | Others | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infratest dimap | 20 Oct 2026 | 36 | 21 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 4 | – | 7 | ||
| GMS | 19 Oct 2026 | 37 | 22 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | ||
| Civey | 17 Oct 2026 | 38 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | ||
| Civey | 12 Sep 2026 | 38 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Civey | 14 Aug 2026 | 38 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Civey | 18 Jul 2026 | 37 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 4 | ||
| Civey | 14 Jun 2026 | 38 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Civey | 16 May 2026 | 37 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Civey | 19 Apr 2026 | 38 | 19 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | ||
| Civey | 14 Mar 2026 | 39 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 5 | ||
| GMS | 3 Mar 2026 | 39 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | ||
| Civey | 14 Feb 2026 | 40 | 18 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 6 | ||
| Civey | 19 Jan 2026 | 40 | 18 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 6 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 14 Jan 2026 | 39 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 3 | – | 9 | ||
| GMS | 5 Jan 2026 | 39 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | ||
| Civey | 17 Dec 2025 | 37 | 21 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 4 | ||
| GMS | 11 Dec 2025 | 40 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | ||
| Civey | 15 Nov 2025 | 40 | 20 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3 | ||
| Civey | 11 Oct 2025 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 5 | ||
| GMS | 30 Sep 2025 | 39 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 4 | ||
| Civey | 13 Sep 2025 | 40 | 20 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | ||
| Forsa | 12 Sep 2025 | 37 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Civey | 18 Aug 2025 | 41 | 20 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | ||
| Civey | 14 Jul 2025 | 37 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 6 | ||
| Civey | 14 Jun 2025 | 39 | 22 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | ||
| Civey | 10 May 2025 | 39 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | ||
| Civey | 12 Apr 2025 | 39 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 | ||
| Civey | 15 Mar 2025 | 41 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | ||
| Civey | 17 Feb 2025 | 41 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | ||
| Civey | 22 Jan 2025 | 43 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 9 Jan 2025 | 42 | 13 | 12.5 | 12 | 8 | – | – | 12.5 | ||
| Civey | 14 Dec 2024 | 42 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Civey | 16 Nov 2024 | 44 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 7 | ||
| INSA | 20 Oct 2024 | 43 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 8 | – | – | 5 | ||
| GMS | 17 Sep 2024 | 42 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | ||
| Forsa | 8 Aug 2024 | 43 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 8 | – | 2 | 7 | ||
| GMS | 7 May 2024 | 41 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | ||
| Civey | 16 Mar 2024 | 42 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | ||
| GMS | 6 Feb 2024 | 42 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 17 Jan 2024 | 40 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 7 | – | 3 | 9 | ||
| Min – Max | 36–44 | 11–22 | 10–15 | 9–15 | 6–8 | 1–5 | 1–3 | 3–12.5 | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
The 40 latest of 190 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.
The Bavarian state election at a glance
At the last Bavarian state election on 8 October 2023, CSU became the largest party with 37.0%, defending first place from 2018. The biggest move compared with 2018: AfD gained 4.4 points.
Bavaria is governed by CSU and Freie Wähler. On the current polling average this alliance would win 96 of 180 seats and would keep its majority.
190 polls for the Bavarian state election have been published since 13 October 2017, 15 of them this year. Most come from Civey (56), GMS (49), INSA (22). Recently a new poll has appeared every 23 days on average.
The next Bavarian state election is expected in autumn 2028. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 18 or over is eligible to vote.
- Seats are allocated separately in each of the seven administrative regions.
- The five per cent threshold applies statewide but is measured against the sum of first and second votes.
Results: 8 Oct 2023 · 14 Oct 2018. Pollster accuracy.
- Parliament
- Bavarian Landtag
- Seats
- 180 (regular size)
- Constituencies
- 91
- Threshold
- 5 per cent
- Seat allocation
- Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
- Votes
- two votes, both count towards the seat distribution; the second vote goes to a person on the regional list
- Term
- 5 years
- Voting age
- 18 years
- Last election
- 8 October 2023
- Next election
- expected autumn 2028
- Government
- CSU, Freie Wähler
- State capital
- München
2024 European election in Bavaria
In the European election on 9 June 2024, CSU came first in Bavaria with 39.7% of the vote. The bars show the European election shares, the small figures the gap to the 2025 federal election in the same area.
In the 2024 European election, CSU was the strongest party in Bavaria with 39.7%, +2.5 points compared with the 2025 federal election. Turnout was 65.4% (2025 federal election: 84.3%).
Why do the European and federal elections differ?
The European election has no electoral threshold, so small parties such as Volt, Die PARTEI or the animal-welfare party win more votes. Turnout is much lower, and the political mood shifted between June 2024 and February 2025. The single European-election vote is compared with the second vote of the federal election in the same area; parties that count as Others in 2025 get no difference.
Where do these figures come from?
Official final result of the 2024 European election from the Federal Returning Officer (kerg2.csv), votes per district and independent city.
| Party | Votes 2024 | European election 2024 | Federal election 2025 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 2,513,481 | 39.7% | 37.2% | +2.5 |
| AfD | 799,060 | 12.6% | 19.0% | -6.4 |
| Grüne | 748,719 | 11.8% | 12.0% | -0.2 |
| SPD | 562,255 | 8.9% | 11.5% | -2.6 |
| Freie Wähler | 432,434 | 6.8% | 4.3% | +2.5 |
| FDP | 248,890 | 3.9% | 4.2% | -0.3 |
| BSW | 239,612 | 3.8% | 3.1% | +0.7 |
| Volt | 154,593 | 2.4% | 0.6% | +1.8 |
| ÖDP | 121,756 | 1.9% | – | – |
| Die PARTEI | 100,979 | 1.6% | – | – |
| Linke | 86,217 | 1.4% | 5.7% | -4.3 |
| Tierschutzpartei | 65,128 | 1.0% | – | – |
| Others | 250,887 | 4.0% | – | – |
ÖDP, Die PARTEI, Tierschutzpartei: counted as Others in the 2025 federal election, so no difference is shown.
Source: Federal Returning Officer, 2024 European election, results by state and district (kerg2.csv) (file), final result, retrieved 28 Sep 2026, Data licence Germany, attribution 2.0. Berlin East and Berlin West are aggregated from the boroughs as in the 2025 federal election. Comparison values: second votes of the 2025 federal election in the same area. Compiled by wahlergebnisse.io.
Bavaria in figures
Key facts about the place from official statistics and Wikidata, so the election result can be put in context. The figures describe, they do not explain.
- Population
- 13,245,503 (as of 2025-12-31)
- Area
- 70,541.5 km²
- Population density
- 188 inhabitants per km²
- Under 19
- 17.7%
- 67 and older
- 18.6%
- Foreign nationals (2022 census)
- 14.3%
- Employees subject to social insurance (place of work)
- 5,965,079 (as of 2025-12-31)
- Largest sectors
- Manufacturing 20% · Health and social work 13% · Trade and vehicle repair 11%
- Commuter balance
- +75,442 (more in-commuters than out-commuters)
- Allianz SE
- 157,883 employees (2023-12-31)
- Fresenius Medical Care
- 125,364 employees (2020)
- Elevation
- 503 m
- First mention or foundation
- 1919
- Twin towns
- 8
- Website
- bayern.de
- Wikipedia
- Bavaria (Wikipedia)
Bavaria has 13,245,503 inhabitants. The largest sector is Manufacturing with 20% of employees. The largest company headquartered in Bavaria is Siemens with 320,000 employees.
Where do the profile figures come from?
Population, area and coordinates from the Federal Statistical Office's municipality register, employees, sectors and unemployment from the Federal Employment Agency, age structure from the 2022 census, coat of arms, website and companies from Wikidata and Wikimedia Commons. All sources are openly licensed and linked below the list.
Does the profile explain the election result?
No. It describes the place so readers can put figures in context. Whether sector, age or density relate to voting can only be tested across many places, not from a single result.
Sources: Wikidata (CC0 1.0) · Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Gemeindeverzeichnis GV-ISys (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0) · Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (© Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nutzung mit Quellenangabe) · Zensus 2022, Statistische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder, Regionaltabelle Demografie (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0)
Bavaria: largest party by district
Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.
Strongest party: CSU in 96 districts of 96. Highest share: CSU with 44.4% in Garmisch-Partenkirchen.
What does the map show?
Each district is coloured by the party with the highest second-vote share at the 2025 federal election; the intensity follows the share. Tap or hover a district for the exact figure and turnout, click to open the district page with all municipalities.
All districts and municipalities in Bavaria · Map of Germany
Districts, cities and constituencies in Bavaria
Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.
Districts and independent cities
The largest cities
- MünchenCSU 29.4%
- NürnbergCSU 29.2%
- AugsburgCSU 28.4%
- RegensburgCSU 29.4%
- WürzburgCSU 28.5%
- FürthCSU 27.8%
- IngolstadtCSU 36.7%
- ErlangenCSU 27.6%
- BambergCSU 29.3%
- BayreuthCSU 31.7%
- AschaffenburgCSU 32.7%
- LandshutCSU 33.4%
- Kempten (Allgäu)CSU 30.9%
- RosenheimCSU 32.3%
- Neu-UlmCSU 32.1%
- PassauCSU 34.8%
Constituencies at the 2025 federal election
Strongest party: CSU in 47 constituencies of 47. Highest share: CSU with 50.5% in 247 Bad Kissingen.
What does the map show?
Each constituency is coloured by the party whose candidate won the direct seat at the 2025 federal election (first votes). Click a constituency for its results, candidates and the current nowcast.
All constituencies in Bavaria as a list · All districts and municipalities
All Bavaria state elections since 1946: result, seats and turnout
There have been 19 state elections in Bavaria since 1946. CSU was the largest party 18 times; most recently CSU led in 2023 with 37.0%. Turnout ranged from 57.1% (2003) to 82.4% (1954).
Shares in percent, seats in brackets. Parties without a seat in any election are counted under Others.
| Year | Turnout | Seats | CSU | Freie Wähler | AfD | Grüne | SPD | FDP | Bayernpartei | DRP/NPD | GB/BHE | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 73.3% | 203 | 37.0% (85) | 15.8% (37) | 14.6% (32) | 14.4% (32) | 8.4% (17) | 3.0% (0) | 0.9% (0) | – | – | 2.4% |
| 2018 | 72.4% | 205 | 37.2% (85) | 11.6% (27) | 10.2% (22) | 17.5% (38) | 9.7% (22) | 5.1% (11) | 1.7% (0) | – | – | 1.7% |
| 2013 | 63.6% | 180 | 47.7% (101) | 9.0% (19) | – | 8.6% (18) | 20.6% (42) | 3.3% (0) | 2.1% (0) | 0.6% (0) | – | 0.9% |
| 2008 | 57.9% | 187 | 43.4% (92) | 10.2% (21) | – | 9.4% (19) | 18.6% (39) | 8.0% (16) | 1.1% (0) | 1.2% (0) | – | 0.4% |
| 2003 | 57.1% | 180 | 60.7% (124) | 4.0% (0) | – | 7.7% (15) | 19.6% (41) | 2.6% (0) | 0.8% (0) | – | – | 0.4% |
| 1998 | 70.0% | 204 | 52.9% (123) | 3.7% (0) | – | 5.7% (14) | 28.7% (67) | 1.7% (0) | 0.7% (0) | 0.2% (0) | – | 1.0% |
| 1994 | 67.9% | 204 | 52.8% (120) | – | – | 6.1% (14) | 30.0% (70) | 2.8% (0) | 1.0% (0) | 0.1% (0) | – | 1.2% |
| 1990 | 65.9% | 204 | 54.9% (127) | – | – | 6.4% (12) | 26.0% (58) | 5.2% (7) | 0.8% (0) | – | – | 0.1% |
| 1986 | 70.3% | 204 | 55.8% (128) | – | – | 7.5% (15) | 27.5% (61) | 3.8% (0) | 0.6% (0) | 0.5% (0) | – | 1.3% |
| 1982 | 78.0% | 204 | 58.3% (133) | – | – | 4.6% (0) | 31.9% (71) | 3.5% (0) | 0.5% (0) | 0.6% (0) | – | 0.4% |
| 1978 | 76.7% | 204 | 59.1% (129) | – | – | 1.8% (0) | 31.4% (65) | 6.2% (10) | 0.4% (0) | 0.6% (0) | – | 0.1% |
| 1974 | 77.7% | 204 | 62.1% (132) | – | – | – | 30.2% (64) | 5.2% (8) | 0.8% (0) | 1.1% (0) | – | 0.3% |
| 1970 | 79.5% | 204 | 56.4% (124) | – | – | – | 33.3% (70) | 5.5% (10) | 1.5% (0) | 2.9% (0) | – | – |
| 1966 | 80.6% | 204 | 48.1% (110) | – | – | – | 35.8% (79) | 5.1% (0) | 3.4% (0) | 7.4% (15) | – | 0.1% |
| 1962 | 76.5% | 204 | 47.5% (108) | – | – | – | 35.3% (79) | 5.9% (9) | 4.8% (8) | – | 5.1% (0) | 1.4% |
| 1958 | 76.6% | 204 | 45.6% (101) | – | – | – | 30.8% (64) | 5.6% (8) | 8.1% (14) | 0.4% (0) | 8.6% (17) | 0.9% |
| 1954 | 82.4% | 204 | 38.0% (83) | – | – | – | 28.1% (61) | 7.2% (13) | 13.2% (28) | – | 10.2% (19) | 1.2% |
| 1950 | 79.9% | 204 | 27.4% (64) | – | – | – | 28.0% (63) | 7.1% (12) | 17.9% (39) | – | 12.3% (26) | 2.6% |
| 1946 | 75.7% | 180 | 52.3% (104) | – | – | – | 28.6% (54) | 5.6% (9) | – | – | – | – |
Source: Landeswahlleitungen und Bundeswahlleiterin, zusammengeführt über wahlrecht.de/ergebnisse; Hamburg 2025: Statistikamt Nord, as of 29 Sep 2026. Official seats including overhang and compensatory seats; predecessor parties merged (Linke/PDS, Grüne/Bündnis 90).
Who won the state elections in Bavaria?
Largest party per election: 2023 CSU (37.0%), 2018 CSU (37.2%), 2013 CSU (47.7%), 2008 CSU (43.4%), 2003 CSU (60.7%), 1998 CSU (52.9%), 1994 CSU (52.8%), 1990 CSU (54.9%), 1986 CSU (55.8%), 1982 CSU (58.3%), 1978 CSU (59.1%), 1974 CSU (62.1%), 1970 CSU (56.4%), 1966 CSU (48.1%), 1962 CSU (47.5%), 1958 CSU (45.6%), 1954 CSU (38.0%), 1950 SPD (28.0%), 1946 CSU (52.3%).
Pollsters
Which pollsters survey the Bavarian state election and when they last did.
- Infratest dimap10 Jan 2018
- GMS19 Oct 2017
- Civey13 Oct 2017
- Forsa10 Nov 2017
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose15 Dec 2021
- INSA5 Nov 2017
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen21 Sep 2018