Bavaria state election 2023: the result
In the Bavarian state election on 8 October 2023, CSU became the largest party with 37.0%, 21.2 points ahead of Freie Wähler (15.8%). CSU and Freie Wähler have governed since then; how the alliance stands in the polls today is shown on the page with the current election polls.
- Biggest move since 2018
- AfD +4.4 · Freie Wähler +4.2 · Grüne −3.1
- Failed to clear the threshold
- FDP (3.0%), ÖDP (1.8%), Linke (1.5%), Bayernpartei (0.9%)
- Government
- CSU + Freie Wähler: 122 of 203 seats
- Polls one week before
- off by 0.4 points per party on average, AfD underestimated by 1.0
- Turnout
- 73.3%
- Status
- official final result
Result of the 2023 state election
Turnout in the Bavarian state election on 8 October 2023 was 73.3%. The Bavarian Landtag has 203 seats; a majority needs 102.
Shares in percent, change on the election of 14 Oct 2018 in points. Parties below one percent are grouped as Others.
| Party | Votes 2023 (%) | 2018 (%) | Change | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich-Soziale Union | 37.0% | 37.2% | -0.2 | 85 |
| Freie Wähler | 15.8% | 11.6% | +4.2 | 37 |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 14.6% | 10.2% | +4.4 | 32 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 14.4% | 17.5% | -3.1 | 32 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 8.4% | 9.7% | -1.3 | 17 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 3.0% | 5.1% | -2.1 | – |
| Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei | 1.8% | 1.6% | +0.2 | – |
| Die Linke | 1.5% | 3.2% | -1.7 | – |
| Bayernpartei | 0.9% | 1.7% | -0.8 | – |
| Others | 2.6% | 2.2% | +0.4 | – |
Source: state returning officer, compiled via wahlrecht.de. Official seats, 203 in total including overhang and compensatory seats. JSON · CSV
Seat distribution in the Bavarian Landtag after the 2023 result
203 seats by the official result, including overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold of 5%.
- CSU85
- Freie Wähler37
- Grüne32
- AfD32
- SPD17
Which alliances had a majority after the 2023 election
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority; the coalition actually formed is highlighted.
- CSU + Freie WählerGovernment122 of 203
- CSU + Grüne117 of 203
- CSU + AfD117 of 203
- CSU + SPD102 of 203
The polls in the last 30 days before the 2023 state election
12 polls between 8 Sep 2023 and 6 Oct 2023, each one available individually.
| Pollster | Published | CSU | Freie Wähler | AfD | Grüne | SPD | FDP | ÖDP | Linke | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 Oct 2023 | 37.5 | 15 | 14 | 15.5 | 8 | 3 | – | 1 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 Oct 2023 | 37 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 9 | 3 | – | – | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 4 Oct 2023 | 37 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 7.5 | 4 | – | 1.5 | ||
| INSA | 4 Oct 2023 | 36 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 4 | – | 2 | ||
| Civey | 2 Oct 2023 | 37 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 4 | – | 1 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 29 Sep 2023 | 36 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 9 | 4 | – | – | ||
| Infratest dimap | 28 Sep 2023 | 36 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 4 | – | – | ||
| Civey | 21 Sep 2023 | 38 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 4 | – | 2 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 20 Sep 2023 | 37 | 17.5 | 13.5 | 15 | 8.5 | 3 | – | 1 | ||
| GMS | 19 Sep 2023 | 36 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 3 | – | 1 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 12 Sep 2023 | 36 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 9 | 3 | – | – | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 8 Sep 2023 | 36 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 9 | 4 | – | – | ||
| Min – Max | 36–38 | 14–17.5 | 12–14 | 14–16 | 7.5–9 | 3–4 | – | 1–2 | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
Last poll before the election: Institut Wahlkreisprognose, 6 Oct 2023
Who came closest before the 2023 election?
Deviation of each pollster's last poll from the result, by party in points. Ranked by mean absolute deviation.
| Pollster | Poll dated | CSU | Freie Wähler | AfD | Grüne | SPD | FDP | Linke | Bayernpartei | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 8 Oct 2023 | 37.0% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 Oct 2023 (2 days before) | +0.5 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +1.1 | -0.4 | ±0 | -0.5 | – | 0.6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 Oct 2023 (3 days before) | ±0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +1.6 | +0.6 | ±0 | – | – | 0.6 |
| Civey | 2 Oct 2023 (6 days before) | ±0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +0.6 | +0.6 | +1.0 | -0.5 | – | 0.6 |
| GMS | 19 Sep 2023 (19 days before) | -1.0 | +1.2 | -0.6 | -0.4 | +0.6 | ±0 | -0.5 | +0.1 | 0.6 |
| INSA | 4 Oct 2023 (4 days before) | -1.0 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +0.6 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +0.5 | – | 0.7 |
| Infratest dimap | 28 Sep 2023 (10 days before) | -1.0 | +0.2 | -0.6 | +0.6 | +0.6 | +1.0 | – | – | 0.7 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.