Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 20 September 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 14 to 20 Sep 2023
- Respondents
- 1,021
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CSU37.0%-4.0
- Freie Wähler17.5%+2.0
- Grüne15.0%+1.5
- AfD13.5%-1.5
- SPD8.5%+2.0
- FDP3.0%-0.5
- Linke1.0%±0
- Others4.5%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 7 Sep 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 37.0%, followed by Freie Wähler on 17.5%. 1,021 people were surveyed from 14 to 20 Sep 2023, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 7 Sep 2023, CSU loses 4.0 points, Freie Wähler gains 2.0 points, SPD gains 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Freie Wähler 2.3 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler +2.3average 15.2
- SPD -0.7average 9.2
- FDP -0.7average 3.7
- Linke -0.5average 1.5
- CSU +0.3average 36.7
- Grüne +0.3average 14.7
- AfD -0.3average 13.8
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU73
- Freie Wähler34
- Grüne29
- AfD27
- SPD17
- CSU + Freie Wähler107 of 180
- CSU + Grüne102 of 180
- CSU + AfD100 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.