Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 4 October 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 30 Sep 2023 to 3 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 1,002
- Method
- Online
- CSU37.0%±0
- Grüne15.0%±0
- Freie Wähler15.0%-2.5
- AfD14.0%+0.5
- SPD7.5%-1.0
- FDP4.0%+1.0
- Linke1.5%+0.5
- Others6.0%+1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 20 Sep 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CSU ahead on 37.0%, followed by Grüne on 15.0%. 1,002 people were surveyed from 30 Sep 2023 to 3 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 20 Sep 2023, Freie Wähler loses 2.5 points, SPD loses 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 1.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.5average 9.0
- CSU +0.3average 36.7
- Freie Wähler -0.3average 15.3
- Grüne +0.2average 14.8
- AfD +0.2average 13.8
- FDP +0.2average 3.8
- Linke ±0average 1.5
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU75
- Grüne31
- Freie Wähler31
- AfD28
- SPD15
- CSU + Grüne106 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler106 of 180
- CSU + AfD103 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.