Wahlergebnissede
Saarland polling average

Saarland state election 2027: polls, forecast and date

Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 180 days, as of 3 December 2025 (294 days ago). Next election: 18 April 2027; see also the Saarland state election 2027 forecast.

Next election18 April 2027Date set, see the forecastLast election 27 Mar 2022SPD 43.5%official result, all partiesGovernmentSPD16 of 51 seats according to the polls, no majorityPolls, as of 3 Dec 2025SPD 27.0%leading in the average of all pollsters
Polling average Saarland
Average of each pollster's latest poll, shares in percent
  • SPD27.0%-16.5
  • CDU25.0%-3.5
  • AfD23.0%+17.3
  • Grüne7.0%+2.0
  • Linke7.0%+4.4
  • BSW3.0%
  • Others8.0%-6.7

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 27 Mar 2022.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 3 Dec 2025
Share

Averaging the latest poll for the Saarland state election, SPD leads with 27.0%, followed by CDU on 25.0%.

Basis

These polls feed into the average

Each pollster's latest poll from the past 180 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.

Polls in the average for the Saarland state election, as of 3 Dec 2025, values in per cent
PollsterPublishedSPDCDUAfDGrüneLinkeBSWOthers
Infratest dimap3 Dec 20252725237738
Projected

Seat distribution in the Landtag of Saarland

Under Sainte-Laguë, the 51 seats would split into 16 for SPD, 14 for CDU, 13 for AfD, 4 for Grüne, 4 for Linke. BSW would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 51 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold 5 per cent.

Seat distribution Saarland
Projected seat distribution based on the polling average
SPD: 16 seatsCDU: 14 seatsAfD: 13 seatsGrüne: 4 seatsLinke: 4 seatsMajority from 2651of 51 seats
  • SPD16
  • CDU14
  • AfD13
  • Grüne4
  • Linke4
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 3 Dec 2025
Share
Majorities

Which coalitions would have a majority?

All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.

Coalition calculator Saarland
Seats based on the polling average, tap parties to test an alliance
Coalition calculator: tap the parties
SPD
SPD: 16 seatsCDU: 14 seatsAfD: 13 seatsGrüne: 4 seatsLinke: 4 seats16/51
10 seats short of a majority
Seats based on the current polling average, 51 regular seats, majority from 26.
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 3 Dec 2025
Share
  • SPDGovernment, no majority16 of 51
  • SPD + CDU30 of 51
  • SPD + AfD29 of 51
  • CDU + AfD27 of 51
Our analysis

How secure are the majorities?

Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.

Majority probabilities Saarland
Share of simulations in which an alliance holds a majority

Majority in parliament

  • SPDGovernmentunder 1%
  • SPD + CDUover 99%
  • SPD + AfD98%
  • CDU + AfD92%
  • SPD + Grüneunder 1%
  • CDU + Grüneunder 1%
  • AfD + Grüneunder 1%

Clearing the electoral threshold

  • BSW (±1.4)6%
  • Grüne (±1.9)85%
  • Linke (±1.9)86%

Largest party

  • SPD65%
  • CDU28%
  • AfD6%

3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 3 Dec 2025
Share
Trend

Polling trend since 4 May 2024

Polling trend Saarland
Rolling average and individual polls, shares in percent
010203040Jun 24Aug 24Oct 24Dec 24Feb 25Apr 25Jun 25Aug 25Oct 25Dec 25SPDCDUAfDGrüneLinkeBSW
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 180 days. Period 4 May 2024 to 3 Dec 2025. Tap the tiles to hide parties.
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 3 Dec 2025
Share
Our analysis

Accuracy ahead of the election on 27 Mar 2022

Before the Saarland state election on 27 Mar 2022, Institut Wahlkreisprognose came closest to the result with an average error of 1.0 points per party, Infratest dimap was furthest away with 1.8 points. All pollsters underestimated SPD (by 4.0 points on average) and overestimated Linke (by 1.4 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.

Deviation of the last polls before the election of 27 Mar 2022 from the result, in percentage points
PollsterPoll datedSPDCDUAfDGrüneFDPLinkeØ abs.
Result 27 Mar 202243.5%28.5%5.7%5.0%4.8%2.6%
Institut Wahlkreisprognose25 Mar 2022 (2 days before)-2.5-0.5+0.8±0+0.7+1.41.0
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen24 Mar 2022 (3 days before)-2.5-0.5+0.8+0.5+0.2+1.41.0
INSA20 Mar 2022 (7 days before)-4.5+2.5+0.3±0+0.2+1.41.5
Infratest dimap17 Mar 2022 (10 days before)-6.5+2.5+0.3±0+0.2+1.41.8

Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.

Archive

All polls for the Saarland state election

32 polls since 7 March 2017. Pollsters: Infratest dimap, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, INSA, Forsa.

The 40 latest polls for the Saarland state election, values in per cent
PollsterPublishedSPDCDUAfDGrüneLinkeBSWOthers
Infratest dimap3 Dec 20252725237738
Infratest dimap2 Apr 20253027176845
Infratest dimap26 Sep 20242931145–1011
Institut Wahlkreisprognose4 May 202436288.55298
Institut Wahlkreisprognose8 Aug 20233523234.51–8.5
Infratest dimap23 Mar 202338281083–8
Institut Wahlkreisprognose25 Jan 202342.527.51251.5–7
Institut Wahlkreisprognose6 Nov 20224226.5144.52–6.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose25 Mar 202241286.554–10
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen24 Mar 202241286.55.54–10
INSA20 Mar 20223931654–10
Institut Wahlkreisprognose18 Mar 20223830653.5–12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen18 Mar 20223930664–10
Infratest dimap17 Mar 20223731654–9
Institut Wahlkreisprognose9 Mar 202235.5308.575.5–6
Infratest dimap16 Feb 20223829865–8
Institut Wahlkreisprognose8 Feb 2022343376.55–4
INSA28 Jan 20223530787–7
Institut Wahlkreisprognose24 Dec 20213833.5764–2.5
Infratest dimap24 Nov 20213328986–8
INSA21 Jul 20212736697–8
INSA11 May 2021213161514–6
Infratest dimap11 Nov 2020224081211–4
INSA10 Dec 2019243671511–3
Infratest dimap8 May 2019253781112–3
Infratest dimap21 Jun 2018263515612–2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen23 Mar 2017323764.512.5–4
INSA22 Mar 201733356413–4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen17 Mar 201732377412–4
Infratest dimap16 Mar 201734356.54.513–4
Forsa9 Mar 201733346513–5
INSA7 Mar 201733367412–4

Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.

Background

The Saarland state election at a glance

At the last Saarland state election on 27 March 2022, SPD became the largest party with 43.5% and replaced CDU at the top. The biggest move compared with 2017: SPD gained 13.9 points.

Saarland is governed by SPD. On the current polling average this alliance would win 16 of 51 seats, and would no longer have a majority.

32 polls for the Saarland state election have been published since 7 March 2017, 2 of them this year. Most come from Infratest dimap (11), Institut Wahlkreisprognose (9), INSA (7). Recently a new poll has appeared every 113 days on average.

The next Saarland state election is scheduled for 18 April 2027. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 18 or over is eligible to vote.

  • Pure list election without constituency seats, seats allocated by d'Hondt, Germany's smallest Landtag.

Results: 27 Mar 2022 · 26 Mar 2017. Pollster accuracy.

Parliament
Landtag of Saarland
Seats
51 (regular size)
Threshold
5 per cent
Seat allocation
d'Hondt
Votes
one vote for a state and constituency list
Term
5 years
Voting age
18 years
Last election
27 March 2022
Next election
18 April 2027
Government
SPD
State capital
Saarbrücken
Map

Saarland: largest party by district

Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.

Saarland: largest party by district, 2025 federal election
Largest party by second votes per district and independent city
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Federal Returning Officer, © GeoBasis-DE / BKG 2025 · As of: 23 Feb 2025
Share

All districts and municipalities in Saarland · Map of Germany

On the ground

Districts, cities and constituencies in Saarland

Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.

Districts and independent cities

Merzig-WadernNeunkirchenRegionalverband SaarbrückenSaarlouisSaarpfalz-KreisSt. Wendel

The largest cities

Constituencies at the 2025 federal election

Saarland: constituency seats, 2025 federal election
Party with the most first votes per constituency, share in percent
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Federal Returning Officer, © GeoBasis-DE / BKG 2025 · As of: 23 Feb 2025
Share

All constituencies in Saarland as a list · All districts and municipalities

Pollsters

Which pollsters survey the Saarland state election and when they last did.

Election tickerNext electionSaarland207 daysLatest pollForsa, North Rhine-Westphalia23 Sep 2026CDU 29AfD 22Grüne 18Biggest moveSPD, Rhineland-Palatinate▼ −8,3Leading nationallyAfDfor 159 daysRun-offsLower Saxony local elections4 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%, preliminary

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.