Saarland polling average

Saarland state election 2027: polls, forecast and date

Coat of arms of Saarland

Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 180 days, as of 4 November 2026 (3 days ago). Next election: 18 April 2027; see also the Saarland state election 2027 forecast. Sunday question Saarland: average, pollsters and trend.

Next election18 April 2027Date set, see the forecastLast election 27 Mar 2022SPD 43.5%official result, all partiesGovernmentSPD19 of 51 seats according to the polls, no majorityPolls, as of 4 Nov 2026SPD 33.0%leading in the average of all pollsters
Polling average Saarland
Average of each pollster's latest poll, shares in percent

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 27 Mar 2022.

SPD leads with 33.0%, 12.0 points ahead of AfD (21.0%). Biggest movement over 180 days: SPD +6.0 and CDU −5.0. Around the 5% threshold: Linke 6.0%.

How is the polling average calculated?

We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 180 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.

Why do pollsters differ?

Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 4 Nov 2026
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Averaging the latest poll for the Saarland state election, SPD leads with 33.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%.

Lead at the top
SPD 12.0 points ahead of AfD
Around the 5% threshold
Linke 6.0%
Movement over 180 days
SPD +6.0 · CDU −5.0 · AfD −2.0
Two-party majorities
SPD + AfD · SPD + CDU
Current government
SPD: 19 of 51 seats, no majority
Basis
1 pollster, latest poll 4 November 2026
Basis

These polls feed into the average

Each pollster's latest poll from the past 180 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.

Sunday question Saarland state election: values per pollster, average and last election result
PartyAverage
4 Nov 2026
Infratest dimap
4 Nov 2026
2022 election
SPD33.033.043.5
AfD21.021.05.7
CDU20.020.028.5
Grüne9.09.05.0
Linke6.06.02.6
FDP3.03.04.8
BSW3.03.0–
Others5.05.09.9

Values in percent, latest poll per pollster within the averaging window. Bold: highest value per party.

Polls in the average for the Saarland state election, as of 4 Nov 2026, values in per cent
PollsterPublishedSPDAfDCDUGrüneLinkeFDPBSWOthers
Infratest dimap4 Nov 202633212096335
Projected

Seat distribution in the Landtag of Saarland

Under Sainte-Laguë, the 51 seats would split into 19 for SPD, 12 for AfD, 12 for CDU, 5 for Grüne, 3 for Linke. FDP, BSW would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 51 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold 5 per cent.

Seat distribution Saarland
Projected seat distribution based on the polling average
SPD: 19 seatsAfD: 12 seatsCDU: 12 seatsGrüne: 5 seatsLinke: 3 seatsMajority from 2651of 51 seats
  • SPD19
  • AfD12
  • CDU12
  • Grüne5
  • Linke3

SPD would be the largest group with 19 of 51 seats; a majority needs 26. FDP and BSW would miss the threshold and win no seats.

How is the seat distribution calculated?

Seats are allocated by the d'Hondt method among all parties above the 5% threshold, based on the polling average. The parliament has 51 seats; a majority needs 26. Overhang or levelling seats and constituency effects are not modelled.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 4 Nov 2026
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Majorities

Which coalitions would have a majority?

All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.

Coalition calculator Saarland
Seats based on the polling average, tap parties to test an alliance
Coalition calculator: tap the parties
SPD
SPD: 19 seatsAfD: 12 seatsCDU: 12 seatsGrüne: 5 seatsLinke: 3 seats19/51
7 seats short of a majority
What if …
Majorities
Seats based on the current polling average, 51 regular seats, majority from 26.

2 two-party alliances have a majority: SPD + AfD and SPD + CDU. The current government (SPD) would lose its majority with 19 seats.

Which coalitions are shown?

All two- and three-party alliances with at least 26 of 51 seats. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. Tap parties in the calculator to test any other combination; exclusions can be set under Settings.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 4 Nov 2026
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  • SPDGovernment, no majority19 of 51
  • SPD + AfD31 of 51
  • SPD + CDU31 of 51
  • AfD + CDU + Grüne29 of 51
  • SPD + Grüne + Linke27 of 51
  • AfD + CDU + Linke27 of 51
Coalition timeline Saarland
Arithmetic majorities in the polling average at each month's end, last 48 months; majority from 26 of 51 seats
majorityno majority

SPD last had a majority in December 2022; currently holding a majority: SPD + CDU (throughout the period) and AfD + CDU + Grüne (for 27 consecutive months).

How is the coalition timeline calculated?

For the end of each of the last 48 months the polling average is computed as it stood on that date: the latest poll from each pollster within the preceding 180 days, averaged without weighting. Seats are then allocated using the parliament's method and threshold. An alliance has a majority in a month if its seats add up to at least half plus one. The most recent month uses the current average.

Which alliances are shown?

The incumbent government, the alliances with a majority in the current average and the pairs of the four largest parties. A filled cell means an arithmetic majority in that month, a pale cell none. The bar says nothing about whether an alliance is politically feasible.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · own calculation · As of: 4 Nov 2026
Our analysis

How secure are the majorities?

Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.

Majority probabilities Saarland
Share of simulations in which an alliance holds a majority

Majority in parliament

  • SPDGovernmentunder 1%
  • SPD + AfDover 99%
  • SPD + CDUover 99%
  • AfD + CDU + Grüne96%
  • SPD + Grüne + Linke79%
  • AfD + CDU + Linke70%
  • SPD + Grüne25%
  • AfD + CDU17%
  • AfD + Grüneunder 1%
  • CDU + Grüneunder 1%

Clearing the electoral threshold

  • FDP (±1.1)4%
  • BSW (±1.3)7%
  • Linke (±1.9)70%
  • Grüne (±1.9)98%

3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.

SPD and AfD holds a majority in 100% of 3,000 simulations. Uncertain at the 5% threshold: BSW (7% above) and Linke (70% above).

How are the probabilities calculated?

We recompute the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied poll values. The variation per party combines the sampling error of the average with the historical error of polls before elections since 2017. The probability is the share of runs in which an alliance reaches 26 seats.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 4 Nov 2026
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Polling trend

Polling trend: how the polls moved since 2 April 2025

Polling trend Saarland
Rolling average and individual polls, shares in percent
010203040May 25Jul 25Sep 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26Sep 26Nov 26SPDAfDCDUGrüneLinkeFDPBSW
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 180 days. Period 2 Apr 2025 to 4 Nov 2026. Tap the tiles to hide parties.
How does the rolling average work?

Each point is one poll. The line is the average of all polls of the previous 180 days, one per pollster, so a single outlier moves it only slightly. Choose a period, an end month or the area view to explore the history back to 2017.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 4 Nov 2026
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Google searches

Search interest by party in Saarland

Each party's share of Google searches for the eight parties in the state, last 90 days. For comparison the current poll rating, where the party is listed in the state's polls.

Search interest by party in Saarland
Share of search interest across the eight parties in per cent, last 90 days
Search share and poll rating by party in Saarland
PartySearch sharePolls
AfD49.0%21.0%
CDU/CSU19.6%20.0%
SPD12.7%33.0%
Linke8.2%6.0%
BSW5.2%3.0%
FDP2.9%3.0%
Grüne1.8%9.0%
Freie Wähler0.6%–

In Saarland, AfD accounts for 49.0% of the search interest across the eight parties, ahead of CDU/CSU on 19.6%. In the state's polls AfD stands at 21.0%.

How is the search share by state calculated?

Google Trends reports for each state how search interest is distributed across the compared parties over the last 90 days. Two groups of five are linked through the AfD as a common yardstick; CDU and CSU are added together.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Google Trends, search interest by topic · As of: 9 Nov 2026

Analysis for all states

Our analysis

Accuracy ahead of the election on 27 Mar 2022

Before the Saarland state election on 27 Mar 2022, Institut Wahlkreisprognose came closest to the result with an average error of 1.0 points per party, Infratest dimap was furthest away with 1.8 points. All pollsters underestimated SPD (by 4.0 points on average) and overestimated Linke (by 1.4 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.

Deviation of the last polls before the election of 27 Mar 2022 from the result, in percentage points
PollsterPoll datedSPDCDUAfDGrüneFDPLinkeØ abs.
Result 27 Mar 202243.5%28.5%5.7%5.0%4.8%2.6%
Institut Wahlkreisprognose25 Mar 2022 (2 days before)-2.5-0.5+0.8±0+0.7+1.41.0
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen24 Mar 2022 (3 days before)-2.5-0.5+0.8+0.5+0.2+1.41.0
INSA20 Mar 2022 (7 days before)-4.5+2.5+0.3±0+0.2+1.41.5
Infratest dimap17 Mar 2022 (10 days before)-6.5+2.5+0.3±0+0.2+1.41.8

Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.

Archive

All polls for the Saarland state election

33 polls since 7 March 2017. Pollsters: Infratest dimap, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, INSA, Forsa.

The 40 latest polls for the Saarland state election, values in per cent
PollsterPublishedSPDAfDCDUGrüneLinkeFDPBSWOthers
Infratest dimap4 Nov 202633212096335
Infratest dimap3 Dec 202527232577–38
Infratest dimap2 Apr 202530172768345
Infratest dimap26 Sep 20242914315––1011
Institut Wahlkreisprognose4 May 2024368.528523.598
Institut Wahlkreisprognose8 Aug 20233523234.515–8.5
Infratest dimap23 Mar 2023381028835–8
Institut Wahlkreisprognose25 Jan 202342.51227.551.54.5–7
Institut Wahlkreisprognose6 Nov 2022421426.54.524.5–6.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose25 Mar 2022416.528545.5–10
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen24 Mar 2022416.5285.545–10
INSA20 Mar 202239631545–10
Institut Wahlkreisprognose18 Mar 20223863053.55.5–12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen18 Mar 202239630645–10
Infratest dimap17 Mar 202237631545–9
Institut Wahlkreisprognose9 Mar 202235.58.53075.56.5–6
Infratest dimap16 Feb 202238829656–8
Institut Wahlkreisprognose8 Feb 2022347336.556.5–4
INSA28 Jan 202235730876–7
Institut Wahlkreisprognose24 Dec 202138733.5646–2.5
Infratest dimap24 Nov 202133928868–8
INSA21 Jul 202127636977–8
INSA11 May 20212163115147–6
Infratest dimap11 Nov 20202284012113–4
INSA10 Dec 20192473615114–3
Infratest dimap8 May 20192583711124–3
Infratest dimap21 Jun 20182615356124–2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen23 Mar 2017326374.512.54–4
INSA22 Mar 2017336354135–4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen17 Mar 2017327374124–4
Infratest dimap16 Mar 2017346.5354.5133–4
Forsa9 Mar 2017336345134–5
INSA7 Mar 2017337364124–4
Min – Max21–42.56–2320–404–151–143–83–102–12

For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.

Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.

Background

The Saarland state election at a glance

At the last Saarland state election on 27 March 2022, SPD became the largest party with 43.5% and replaced CDU at the top. The biggest move compared with 2017: SPD gained 13.9 points.

Saarland is governed by SPD. On the current polling average this alliance would win 19 of 51 seats, and would no longer have a majority.

33 polls for the Saarland state election have been published since 7 March 2017, 1 of them this year. Most come from Infratest dimap (12), Institut Wahlkreisprognose (9), INSA (7). Recently a new poll has appeared every 141 days on average.

The next Saarland state election is scheduled for 18 April 2027. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 18 or over is eligible to vote.

  • Pure list election without constituency seats, seats allocated by d'Hondt, Germany's smallest Landtag.

Results: 27 Mar 2022 · 26 Mar 2017. Pollster accuracy.

Parliament
Landtag of Saarland
Seats
51 (regular size)
Threshold
5 per cent
Seat allocation
d'Hondt
Votes
one vote for a state and constituency list
Term
5 years
Voting age
18 years
Last election
27 March 2022
Next election
18 April 2027
Government
SPD
State capital
Saarbrücken
2024 European election

2024 European election in Saarland

In the European election on 9 June 2024, CDU came first in Saarland with 29.3% of the vote. The bars show the European election shares, the small figures the gap to the 2025 federal election in the same area.

2024 European election in Saarland
Vote shares in per cent, difference from the 2025 federal election in points

Change compared with 2025 federal election.

In the 2024 European election, CDU was the strongest party in Saarland with 29.3%, +2.4 points compared with the 2025 federal election. Turnout was 68.0% (2025 federal election: 82.4%).

Why do the European and federal elections differ?

The European election has no electoral threshold, so small parties such as Volt, Die PARTEI or the animal-welfare party win more votes. Turnout is much lower, and the political mood shifted between June 2024 and February 2025. The single European-election vote is compared with the second vote of the federal election in the same area; parties that count as Others in 2025 get no difference.

Where do these figures come from?

Official final result of the 2024 European election from the Federal Returning Officer (kerg2.csv), votes per district and independent city.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Federal Returning Officer · As of: 9 Jun 2024
2024 European election and 2025 federal election in Saarland: shares by party
PartyVotes 2024European election 2024Federal election 2025Difference
CDU147,52229.3%26.9%+2.4
SPD103,21520.5%21.9%-1.4
AfD79,06715.7%21.6%-5.9
BSW39,7897.9%6.2%+1.7
Grüne33,0826.6%7.2%-0.6
FDP23,5314.7%4.3%+0.4
Die PARTEI11,4582.3%––
Linke10,0912.0%7.4%-5.4
Tierschutzpartei9,8332.0%––
Volt8,4341.7%0.6%+1.1
Freie Wähler7,9521.6%1.4%+0.2
ÖDP3,1140.6%––
Others26,9675.4%––

Die PARTEI, Tierschutzpartei, ÖDP: counted as Others in the 2025 federal election, so no difference is shown.

Source: Federal Returning Officer, 2024 European election, results by state and district (kerg2.csv) (file), final result, retrieved 28 Sep 2026, Data licence Germany, attribution 2.0. Berlin East and Berlin West are aggregated from the boroughs as in the 2025 federal election. Comparison values: second votes of the 2025 federal election in the same area. Compiled by wahlergebnisse.io.

Profile

Saarland in figures

Key facts about the place from official statistics and Wikidata, so the election result can be put in context. The figures describe, they do not explain.

Saarland in figures
Official statistics and Wikidata, date per source below
Population
Population
1,007,342 (as of 2025-12-31)
Area
2,572 km²
Population density
392 inhabitants per km²
Under 19
16.0%
67 and older
21.6%
Foreign nationals (2022 census)
13.1%
Economy
Employees subject to social insurance (place of work)
387,135 (as of 2025-12-31)
Largest sectors
Manufacturing 20% · Health and social work 18% · Trade and vehicle repair 13%
Commuter balance
+17,140 (more in-commuters than out-commuters)
Largest companies headquartered here
Pro Seniore
9,000 employees
Villeroy & Boch
6,400 employees (2022)
Place
First mention or foundation
1947
Twin towns
2

Saarland has 1,007,342 inhabitants. The largest sector is Manufacturing with 20% of employees. The largest company headquartered in Saarland is Globus Holding with 34,000 employees.

Where do the profile figures come from?

Population, area and coordinates from the Federal Statistical Office's municipality register, employees, sectors and unemployment from the Federal Employment Agency, age structure from the 2022 census, coat of arms, website and companies from Wikidata and Wikimedia Commons. All sources are openly licensed and linked below the list.

Does the profile explain the election result?

No. It describes the place so readers can put figures in context. Whether sector, age or density relate to voting can only be tested across many places, not from a single result.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikidata (CC0 1.0) · Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Gemeindeverzeichnis GV-ISys (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0) · Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (© Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nutzung mit Quellenangabe) · Zensus 2022, Statistische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder, Regionaltabelle Demografie (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0) · As of: 2026-11-03

Sources: Wikidata (CC0 1.0) · Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Gemeindeverzeichnis GV-ISys (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0) · Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (© Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nutzung mit Quellenangabe) · Zensus 2022, Statistische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder, Regionaltabelle Demografie (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0)

Map

Saarland: largest party by district

Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.

Saarland: largest party by district, 2025 federal election
Largest party by second votes per district and independent city

Strongest party: CDU in 6 districts of 6. Highest share: CDU with 32.7% in St. Wendel.

What does the map show?

Each district is coloured by the party with the highest second-vote share at the 2025 federal election; the intensity follows the share. Tap or hover a district for the exact figure and turnout, click to open the district page with all municipalities.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Federal Returning Officer, © GeoBasis-DE / BKG 2025 · As of: 23 Feb 2025
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All districts and municipalities in Saarland · Map of Germany

On the ground

Districts, cities and constituencies in Saarland

Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.

Districts and independent cities

The largest cities

Constituencies at the 2025 federal election

Saarland: constituency seats, 2025 federal election
Party with the most first votes per constituency, share in percent

Strongest party: SPD in 2 constituencies and CDU in 2 constituencies of 4. Highest share: CDU with 33.9% in 298 St. Wendel.

What does the map show?

Each constituency is coloured by the party whose candidate won the direct seat at the 2025 federal election (first votes). Click a constituency for its results, candidates and the current nowcast.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Federal Returning Officer, © GeoBasis-DE / BKG 2025 · As of: 23 Feb 2025
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All constituencies in Saarland as a list · All districts and municipalities

Since 1947

All Saarland state elections since 1947: result, seats and turnout

There have been 17 state elections in Saarland since 1947. CDU was the largest party 10 times; most recently SPD led in 2022 with 43.5%. Turnout ranged from 55.5% (2004) to 95.7% (1947).

Shares in percent, seats in brackets. Parties without a seat in any election are counted under Others.

Election results Saarland since the first election: share in percent, seats in brackets, turnout and seat total per election
YearTurnoutSeatsSPDCDUAfDGrüneFDPLinke/PDSPiratenKP/DKPCVPOthers
202261.4%5143.5% (29)28.5% (19)5.7% (3)5.0% (0)4.8% (0)2.6% (0)0.3% (0)––8.8%
201769.7%5129.6% (17)40.7% (24)6.2% (3)4.0% (0)3.3% (0)12.8% (7)0.7% (0)––1.1%
201261.6%5130.6% (17)35.2% (19)–5.0% (2)1.2% (0)16.1% (9)7.4% (4)––1.5%
200967.7%5124.5% (13)34.5% (19)–5.9% (3)9.2% (5)21.3% (11)–––1.1%
200455.5%5130.8% (18)47.5% (27)–5.6% (3)5.2% (3)2.3% (0)–––1.6%
199968.7%5144.4% (25)45.5% (26)–3.2% (0)2.6% (0)0.8% (0)–––2.2%
199483.5%5149.4% (27)38.6% (21)–5.5% (3)2.1% (0)––––3.0%
199083.2%5154.4% (30)33.4% (18)–2.6% (0)5.6% (3)––0.1% (0)–0.2%
198585.0%5149.2% (26)37.3% (20)–2.5% (0)10.0% (5)––0.3% (0)––
198085.0%5145.4% (24)44.0% (23)–2.9% (0)6.9% (4)––0.5% (0)–0.3%
197588.8%5041.8% (22)49.1% (25)––7.4% (3)––1.0% (0)––
197083.1%5040.8% (23)47.8% (27)––4.4% (0)––2.7% (0)––
196581.8%5040.7% (21)42.7% (23)––8.3% (4)–––––
196079.1%5030.0% (16)36.6% (19)––13.8% (7)––––3.2%
195590.3%5014.3% (7)25.4% (14)––24.2% (13)––6.6% (2)21.8% (12)1.0%
195293.1%50–––––––9.5% (4)54.7% (29)3.4%
194795.7%50––––7.6% (3)––8.4% (2)51.2% (28)–

Source: Landeswahlleitungen und Bundeswahlleiterin, zusammengeführt über wahlrecht.de/ergebnisse; Hamburg 2025: Statistikamt Nord, as of 29 Sep 2026. Official seats including overhang and compensatory seats; predecessor parties merged (Linke/PDS, Grüne/Bündnis 90).

Who won the state elections in Saarland?

Largest party per election: 2022 SPD (43.5%), 2017 CDU (40.7%), 2012 CDU (35.2%), 2009 CDU (34.5%), 2004 CDU (47.5%), 1999 CDU (45.5%), 1994 SPD (49.4%), 1990 SPD (54.4%), 1985 SPD (49.2%), 1980 SPD (45.4%), 1975 CDU (49.1%), 1970 CDU (47.8%), 1965 CDU (42.7%), 1960 CDU (36.6%), 1955 CDU (25.4%), 1952 CVP (54.7%), 1947 CVP (51.2%).

Pollsters

Which pollsters survey the Saarland state election and when they last did.

Table as CSV

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