Hesse state election: latest polls and 2023 result
Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, as of 29 April 2026 (147 days ago). Next election: expected autumn 2028; see also the Hesse state election 2028 forecast.
- CDU31.0%-3.6
- AfD21.0%+2.6
- SPD15.5%+0.4
- Grüne13.5%-1.3
- Linke6.5%+3.4
- Freie Wähler4.0%
- FDP3.0%-2.0
- Others7.5%-1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 8 Oct 2023.
Averaging the 2 latest polls for the Hesse state election, CDU leads with 31.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%.
- Lead at the topCDU 10.0 points ahead of AfD
- Around the 5% thresholdFreie Wähler 4.0%
- Movement over 120 daysCDU −3.0 · AfD +2.0 · SPD +1.5
- Two-party majoritiesCDU + AfD · CDU + SPD · CDU + Grüne
- Current governmentCDU + SPD: 59 of 110 seats, majority
- Basis2 pollsters, latest poll 29 April 2026
These polls feed into the average
Each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.
| Pollster | Published | CDU | AfD | SPD | Grüne | Linke | Freie Wähler | FDP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 29 Apr 2026 | 30 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 2 Feb 2026 | 32 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 6 | – | 3 | 9 |
Seat distribution in the Landtag of Hesse
Under Sainte-Laguë, the 110 seats would split into 39 for CDU, 26 for AfD, 20 for SPD, 17 for Grüne, 8 for Linke. FDP, Freie Wähler would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 110 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold 5 per cent.
Which coalitions would have a majority?
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.
- CDU + AfD65 of 110
- CDU + SPDGovernment59 of 110
- CDU + Grüne56 of 110
- AfD + SPD + Grüne63 of 110
How secure are the majorities?
Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.
Majority in parliament
- CDU + SPDGovernment77%
- CDU + AfD99%
- CDU + Grüne54%
- AfD + SPD + Grüne97%
- AfD + SPD1%
- AfD + Grüneunder 1%
- SPD + Grüneunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- FDP (±1.1)3%
- Freie Wähler (±1)16%
- Linke (±1.8)78%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
Polling trend since 13 August 2024
Accuracy ahead of the election on 8 Oct 2023
Before the Hesse state election on 8 Oct 2023, Institut Wahlkreisprognose came closest to the result with an average error of 1.0 points per party, Civey was furthest away with 2.2 points. All pollsters underestimated AfD (by 2.9 points on average) and underestimated CDU (by 2.7 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.
| Pollster | Poll dated | CDU | AfD | SPD | Grüne | FDP | Linke | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 8 Oct 2023 | 34.6% | 18.4% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 Oct 2023 (2 days before) | -0.1 | -2.9 | +0.4 | +1.7 | -0.1 | -0.6 | 1.0 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 Oct 2023 (3 days before) | -2.6 | -2.4 | +1.9 | +2.2 | ±0 | -0.1 | 1.5 |
| INSA | 4 Oct 2023 (4 days before) | -3.6 | -2.4 | +0.9 | +1.2 | ±0 | +0.9 | 1.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 28 Sep 2023 (10 days before) | -3.6 | -3.4 | +0.9 | +2.2 | +1.0 | +0.9 | 2.0 |
| Civey | 1 Oct 2023 (7 days before) | -3.6 | -3.4 | +0.9 | +3.2 | +1.0 | +0.9 | 2.2 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.
All polls for the Hesse state election
75 polls since 19 January 2018. Pollsters: INSA, Infratest dimap, Forsa, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Civey.
| Pollster | Published | CDU | AfD | SPD | Grüne | Linke | Freie Wähler | FDP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 29 Apr 2026 | 30 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| INSA | 18 Mar 2026 | 31 | 21 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Infratest dimap | 2 Feb 2026 | 32 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 6 | – | 3 | 9 |
| INSA | 9 Oct 2025 | 32 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Infratest dimap | 23 Jun 2025 | 36 | 18 | 13 | 14 | 6 | – | 4 | 6 |
| INSA | 25 Mar 2025 | 31 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Forsa | 19 Dec 2024 | 38 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 3 | – | 3 | 8 |
| INSA | 13 Aug 2024 | 32 | 18 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 26 Apr 2024 | 37 | 16 | 15 | 15 | – | – | 5 | 9 |
| INSA | 12 Apr 2024 | 33 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 Oct 2023 | 34.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 6.1 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 Oct 2023 | 32 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| INSA | 4 Oct 2023 | 31 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 3 Oct 2023 | 33 | 16 | 16 | 16.5 | 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Civey | 1 Oct 2023 | 31 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 4 | – | 6 | 10 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 29 Sep 2023 | 32 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 28 Sep 2023 | 31 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 26 Sep 2023 | 30.5 | 17.5 | 16 | 18 | 2.5 | 4 | 5 | 6.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 15 Sep 2023 | 30 | 17.5 | 20 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 14 Sep 2023 | 31 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| INSA | 13 Sep 2023 | 29 | 15 | 20 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 8 Sep 2023 | 30 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 3 | – | 6 | 7 |
| Civey | 31 Aug 2023 | 29 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 3 | – | 6 | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Aug 2023 | 29 | 18 | 20 | 16 | 2 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25 Aug 2023 | 31 | 15 | 20 | 18 | 3 | – | 6 | 7 |
| Civey | 17 Aug 2023 | 29 | 15 | 20 | 19 | 3 | – | 6 | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 23 Jul 2023 | 25.5 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 2 | 5.5 | 5 | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Jul 2023 | 26 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 5 | 6 |
| INSA | 16 Jun 2023 | 29 | 13 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 22 May 2023 | 29 | 13 | 23.5 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6.5 |
| INSA | 4 May 2023 | 30 | 12 | 21 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 16 Apr 2023 | 28 | 12.5 | 24 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 5.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 14 Mar 2023 | 32 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 3 | – | 5 | 7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 8 Mar 2023 | 29 | 11 | 24 | 21 | 1.5 | 3 | 6 | 4.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 Feb 2023 | 26 | 12 | 25 | 20 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 5.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 28 Dec 2022 | 28 | 12 | 25 | 19 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 7 | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 27 Nov 2022 | 30 | 12 | 22 | 19.5 | 2 | 3 | 6.5 | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 28 Oct 2022 | 28.5 | 13.5 | 18 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 19 Oct 2022 | 27 | 12 | 22 | 22 | 3 | – | 6 | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Sep 2022 | 30.5 | 14.5 | 15 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
The 40 latest of 75 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.
The Hesse state election at a glance
At the last Hesse state election on 8 October 2023, CDU became the largest party with 34.6%, defending first place from 2018. The biggest move compared with 2018: CDU gained 7.6 points.
Hesse is governed by CDU and SPD. On the current polling average this alliance would win 59 of 110 seats and would keep its majority.
75 polls for the Hesse state election have been published since 19 January 2018, 3 of them this year. Most come from Institut Wahlkreisprognose (22), INSA (17), Infratest dimap (17). Recently a new poll has appeared every 78 days on average.
The next Hesse state election is expected in autumn 2028. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 18 or over is eligible to vote.
- Compensatory seats regularly enlarge the Landtag, to 133 seats in 2023.
Results: 8 Oct 2023 · 28 Oct 2018. Pollster accuracy.
- Parliament
- Landtag of Hesse
- Seats
- 110 (regular size)
- Constituencies
- 55
- Threshold
- 5 per cent
- Seat allocation
- Hare/Niemeyer
- Votes
- two votes: constituency vote and state vote
- Term
- 5 years
- Voting age
- 18 years
- Last election
- 8 October 2023
- Next election
- expected autumn 2028
- Government
- CDU, SPD
- State capital
- Wiesbaden
Hesse: largest party by district
Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.
Districts, cities and constituencies in Hesse
Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.
Districts and independent cities
The largest cities
- Frankfurt am MainCDU 24.3%
- WiesbadenCDU 26.6%
- Kassel, documenta-StadtSPD 20.7%
- DarmstadtGrüne 24.8%
- Offenbach am MainCDU 21.7%
- GießenCDU 19.6%
- MarburgGrüne 22.5%
- Hanau, Brüder-Grimm-StadtCDU 26.4%
- FuldaCDU 32.4%
- Bad Homburg v. d. HöheCDU 37.2%
- Rüsselsheim am MainCDU 24.7%
- WetzlarCDU 27.2%
- Oberursel (Taunus)CDU 33.7%
- RodgauCDU 31.8%
- BensheimCDU 31.5%
- Hofheim am TaunusCDU 34.4%
Constituencies at the 2025 federal election
All constituencies in Hesse as a list · All districts and municipalities
Pollsters
Which pollsters survey the Hesse state election and when they last did.
- INSA17 May 2018
- Infratest dimap19 Jan 2018
- Forsa25 Feb 2018
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose4 Dec 2021
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen22 Mar 2018
- Civey31 Aug 2018