Hesse state election 2023: the result
In the Hesse state election on 8 October 2023, CDU became the largest party with 34.6%, 16.2 points ahead of AfD (18.4%). CDU and SPD have governed since then; how the alliance stands in the polls today is shown on the page with the current election polls.
- Biggest move since 2018CDU +7.6 · AfD +5.3 · Grüne −5.0
- Failed to clear the thresholdLinke (3.1%), Piraten (0.3%)
- GovernmentCDU + SPD: 62 of 110 seats (projected)
- Polls one week beforeoff by 2.1 points per party on average, CDU underestimated by 3.9
- Statusofficial final result
Result of the 2023 state election
Shares in percent, change on the election of 28 Oct 2018 in points. Parties below one percent are grouped as Others.
- CDU34.6%+7.6
- AfD18.4%+5.3
- SPD15.1%-4.7
- Grüne14.8%-5.0
- FDP5.0%-2.5
- Linke3.1%-3.2
- Piraten0.3%-0.1
- Others8.7%+2.6
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the 2018 election.
| Party | 2023 | 2018 | Change | Seats (projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union | 34.6% | 27.0% | +7.6 | 43 |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 18.4% | 13.1% | +5.3 | 23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 15.1% | 19.8% | -4.7 | 19 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 14.8% | 19.8% | -5.0 | 19 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 5.0% | 7.5% | -2.5 | 6 |
| Die Linke | 3.1% | 6.3% | -3.2 | – |
| Piratenpartei | 0.3% | 0.4% | -0.1 | – |
| Others | 8.7% | 6.1% | +2.6 | – |
Source: state returning officer, compiled via wahlrecht.de. Seats projected by Hare/Niemeyer on 110 regular seats, without overhang and compensatory seats. JSON · CSV
Seat distribution in the Landtag of Hesse after the 2023 result
110 regular seats by Hare/Niemeyer. Electoral threshold of 5%. The actual size of the parliament may differ due to overhang and compensatory seats.
- CDU43
- AfD23
- SPD19
- Grüne19
- FDP6
Which alliances had a majority after the 2023 election
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority; the coalition actually formed is highlighted.
- CDU + AfD66 of 110
- CDU + SPDGovernment62 of 110
- CDU + Grüne62 of 110
- AfD + SPD + Grüne61 of 110
The polls in the last 30 days before the 2023 state election
12 polls between 8 Sep 2023 and 6 Oct 2023, each one available individually.
| Pollster | Published | CDU | AfD | SPD | Grüne | FDP | Linke | Piraten |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 Oct 2023 | 34.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | – |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 Oct 2023 | 32 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 5 | 3 | – |
| INSA | 4 Oct 2023 | 31 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 5 | 4 | – |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 3 Oct 2023 | 33 | 16 | 16 | 16.5 | 5.5 | 3 | – |
| Civey | 1 Oct 2023 | 31 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 6 | 4 | – |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 29 Sep 2023 | 32 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 5 | 3 | – |
| Infratest dimap | 28 Sep 2023 | 31 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 6 | 4 | – |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 26 Sep 2023 | 30.5 | 17.5 | 16 | 18 | 5 | 2.5 | – |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 15 Sep 2023 | 30 | 17.5 | 20 | 17 | 5 | 2 | – |
| Infratest dimap | 14 Sep 2023 | 31 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 5 | 3 | – |
| INSA | 13 Sep 2023 | 29 | 15 | 20 | 19 | 6 | 3 | – |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 8 Sep 2023 | 30 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 6 | 3 | – |
Last poll before the election: Institut Wahlkreisprognose, 6 Oct 2023
Who came closest before the 2023 election?
Deviation of each pollster's last poll from the result, by party in points. Ranked by mean absolute deviation.
| Pollster | Poll dated | CDU | AfD | SPD | Grüne | FDP | Linke | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 8 Oct 2023 | 34.6% | 18.4% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 Oct 2023 (2 days before) | -0.1 | -2.9 | +0.4 | +1.7 | -0.1 | -0.6 | 1.0 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 Oct 2023 (3 days before) | -2.6 | -2.4 | +1.9 | +2.2 | ±0 | -0.1 | 1.5 |
| INSA | 4 Oct 2023 (4 days before) | -3.6 | -2.4 | +0.9 | +1.2 | ±0 | +0.9 | 1.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 28 Sep 2023 (10 days before) | -3.6 | -3.4 | +0.9 | +2.2 | +1.0 | +0.9 | 2.0 |
| Civey | 1 Oct 2023 (7 days before) | -3.6 | -3.4 | +0.9 | +3.2 | +1.0 | +0.9 | 2.2 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.