Hesse state election 2018: the result
In the Hesse state election on 28 October 2018, CDU became the largest party with 27.0%, 7.2 points ahead of SPD (19.8%).
- Failed to clear the threshold
- Piraten (0.4%), NPD (0.2%)
- Polls one week before
- off by 1.1 points per party on average, SPD overestimated by 2.7
- Turnout
- 67.3%
- Status
- official final result
Result of the 2018 state election
Turnout in the Hesse state election on 28 October 2018 was 67.3%. The Landtag of Hesse has 137 seats; a majority needs 69.
Shares in percent. Parties below one percent are grouped as Others.
| Party | Votes 2018 (%) | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union | 27.0% | 40 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 19.8% | 29 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 19.8% | 29 |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 13.1% | 19 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 7.5% | 11 |
| Die Linke | 6.3% | 9 |
| Piratenpartei | 0.4% | – |
| Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 0.2% | – |
| Others | 5.9% | – |
Source: state returning officer, compiled via wahlrecht.de. Official seats, 137 in total including overhang and compensatory seats. JSON · CSV
Seat distribution in the Landtag of Hesse after the 2018 result
137 seats by the official result, including overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold of 5%.
- CDU40
- SPD29
- Grüne29
- AfD19
- FDP11
- Linke9
Which alliances had a majority after the 2018 election
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority.
- CDU + SPD69 of 137
- CDU + Grüne69 of 137
- SPD + Grüne + AfD77 of 137
- CDU + AfD + FDP70 of 137
- SPD + Grüne + FDP69 of 137
The polls in the last 30 days before the 2018 state election
8 polls between 28 Sep 2018 and 25 Oct 2018, each one available individually.
| Pollster | Published | CDU | SPD | Grüne | AfD | FDP | Linke | Piraten | NPD | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25 Oct 2018 | 28 | 20 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 8 | – | – | ||
| Civey | 25 Oct 2018 | 27 | 22 | 18.5 | 13 | 7.5 | 8 | – | – | ||
| INSA | 23 Oct 2018 | 26 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 7 | 8 | – | – | ||
| Infratest dimap | 18 Oct 2018 | 26 | 21 | 20 | 12 | 9 | 8 | – | – | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 18 Oct 2018 | 26 | 20 | 22 | 12 | 8 | 8 | – | – | ||
| Civey | 12 Oct 2018 | 28.5 | 24.9 | 18.2 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 7.5 | – | – | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 3 Oct 2018 | 29 | 23 | 18 | 13 | 6 | 8 | – | – | ||
| Civey | 28 Sep 2018 | 28.6 | 23 | 15.8 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 8.8 | – | – | ||
| Min – Max | 26–29 | 20–24.9 | 15.8–22 | 11.8–13 | 5.6–9 | 7.5–8.8 | – | – | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
Last poll before the election: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 25 Oct 2018
Who came closest before the 2018 election?
Deviation of each pollster's last poll from the result, by party in points. Ranked by mean absolute deviation.
| Pollster | Poll dated | CDU | SPD | Grüne | AfD | FDP | Linke | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 28 Oct 2018 | 27.0% | 19.8% | 19.8% | 13.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25 Oct 2018 (3 days before) | +1.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | -1.1 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 0.8 |
| Civey | 25 Oct 2018 (3 days before) | ±0 | +2.2 | -1.3 | -0.1 | ±0 | +1.7 | 0.9 |
| INSA | 23 Oct 2018 (5 days before) | -1.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 | -0.1 | -0.5 | +1.7 | 0.9 |
| Infratest dimap | 18 Oct 2018 (10 days before) | -1.0 | +1.2 | +0.2 | -1.1 | +1.5 | +1.7 | 1.1 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.