Pollsters compared
Which pollster is most accurate?
For each of the 38 elections since 2017 we compare the final poll from each pollster (up to 30 days before the election) with the official result. The yardstick is the mean absolute deviation per party in percentage points.
Across 38 elections since 2017, CSU was underestimated by 1.9 points on average (11 polls), CDU was underestimated by 0.8 points on average (144 polls).
Ranking
Mean deviation per pollster
Only pollsters with at least two elections. Smaller is better. Pollsters that mainly cover state elections have a harder time, because swings are larger there.
| Pollster | Elections | Mean deviation per party |
|---|---|---|
| 1.Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 19 | 1.0 points |
| 2.Ipsos | 4 | 1.0 points |
| 3.Allensbach | 3 | 1.1 points |
| 4.Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 38 | 1.2 points |
| 5.GMS | 5 | 1.3 points |
| 6.Infratest dimap | 38 | 1.4 points |
| 7.INSA | 38 | 1.5 points |
| 8.Verian (Emnid) | 3 | 1.5 points |
| 9.Forsa | 13 | 1.7 points |
| 10.Civey | 25 | 1.7 points |
| 11.YouGov | 6 | 1.8 points |
| 12.Trend Research Hamburg | 3 | 1.8 points |
| 13.pollytix | 3 | 2.1 points |
Parties
Which parties are systematically missed?
Mean deviation of poll minus result across all pollsters and elections. Positive means the polls were too high.
| Party | Polls | Systematic | Mean absolute |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPD | 200 | -0.2 | 1.7 |
| Grüne | 200 | +0.3 | 1.4 |
| Linke | 196 | +0.5 | 1.4 |
| AfD | 196 | ±0 | 1.4 |
| FDP | 178 | +0.4 | 0.8 |
| CDU | 144 | -0.8 | 2.3 |
| BSW | 50 | +0.1 | 1.0 |
| CDU/CSU | 45 | +0.4 | 1.8 |
| Freie Wähler | 33 | -0.1 | 0.7 |
| CSU | 11 | -1.9 | 2.0 |
| BVB/FW | 8 | +0.4 | 1.1 |
| SSW | 8 | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| BD | 7 | ±0 | 0.7 |
| Volt | 3 | ±0 | 0.3 |
| Piraten | 3 | +0.5 | 0.5 |
| Die PARTEI | 3 | +0.4 | 0.4 |
All elections
Election by election
Best and weakest pollster at each election. The full table is on the page of each election.
| Election | Date | Pollsters | Closest | Furthest | Biggest miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berlin | 20 Sep 2026* | 5 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (1.3) | Infratest dimap (1.7) | Linke -4.7 (Civey) |
| Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania | 20 Sep 2026* | 5 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (1.5) | Forsa (3.3) | SPD -7.5 (Forsa) |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 6 Sep 2026 | 5 | Infratest dimap (2.1) | pollytix (2.7) | CDU +5.8 (Civey) |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 22 Mar 2026* | 3 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (0.9) | INSA (1.2) | CDU -3.0 (INSA) |
| Baden-Württemberg | 8 Mar 2026 | 3 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (1.6) | INSA (2.8) | Grüne -6.2 (INSA) |
| Hamburg | 2 Mar 2025* | 4 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (1.1) | INSA (2.0) | AfD +3.5 (INSA) |
| Bundestag | 23 Feb 2025 | 12 | YouGov (0.6) | Infratest dimap (1.7) | Linke -4.8 (Verian (Emnid)) |
| Brandenburg | 22 Sep 2024 | 4 | Institut Wahlkreisprognose (1.3) | Infratest dimap (2.1) | SPD -5.9 (INSA) |
| Saxony | 1 Sep 2024 | 5 | Forsa (0.7) | INSA (1.3) | BSW +3.2 (INSA) |
| Thuringia | 1 Sep 2024 | 5 | Infratest dimap (1.0) | INSA (1.8) | BSW +4.2 (INSA) |
| European election | 9 Jun 2024 | 6 | INSA (0.6) | YouGov (1.9) | AfD +4.1 (YouGov) |
| Bavaria | 8 Oct 2023 | 6 | Institut Wahlkreisprognose (0.6) | Infratest dimap (0.7) | Grüne +1.6 (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) |
| Hesse | 8 Oct 2023 | 5 | Institut Wahlkreisprognose (1.0) | Civey (2.2) | CDU -3.6 (INSA) |
| Bremen | 14 May 2023 | 4 | Institut Wahlkreisprognose (0.6) | INSA (1.1) | Linke -1.9 (INSA) |
| Berlin | 12 Feb 2023 | 6 | Forsa (0.9) | Civey (2.2) | CDU -4.2 (Civey) |
| Lower Saxony | 9 Oct 2022 | 6 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (0.7) | Forsa (1.7) | Grüne +4.5 (Forsa) |
| North Rhine-Westphalia | 15 May 2022 | 7 | Institut Wahlkreisprognose (1.4) | YouGov (2.8) | CDU -5.7 (Infratest dimap) |
| Schleswig-Holstein | 8 May 2022 | 5 | Institut Wahlkreisprognose (1.3) | INSA (2.8) | CDU -7.4 (INSA) |
| Saarland | 27 Mar 2022 | 4 | Institut Wahlkreisprognose (1.0) | Infratest dimap (1.8) | SPD -6.5 (Infratest dimap) |
| Bundestag | 26 Sep 2021 | 12 | Allensbach (0.6) | YouGov (1.5) | CDU/CSU -3.1 (Verian (Emnid)) |
| Berlin | 26 Sep 2021 | 5 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (0.7) | Institut Wahlkreisprognose (2.1) | Grüne -3.9 (Institut Wahlkreisprognose) |
| Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania | 26 Sep 2021 | 5 | Institut Wahlkreisprognose (0.4) | Civey (1.1) | FDP +2.2 (Civey) |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 6 Jun 2021 | 4 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (2.1) | Civey (3.4) | CDU -10.1 (INSA) |
| Baden-Württemberg | 14 Mar 2021 | 5 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (0.8) | Institut Wahlkreisprognose (1.1) | AfD +3.3 (INSA) |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 14 Mar 2021 | 5 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (1.0) | Civey (2.4) | SPD -5.7 (Infratest dimap) |
| Hamburg | 23 Feb 2020 | 6 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (0.4) | Universität Hamburg (2.9) | Grüne +7.8 (Universität Hamburg) |
| Thuringia | 27 Oct 2019 | 4 | Civey (0.7) | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (2.0) | CDU +4.2 (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) |
| Brandenburg | 1 Sep 2019 | 5 | Infratest dimap (2.2) | Forsa (3.5) | SPD -9.2 (Forsa) |
| Saxony | 1 Sep 2019 | 5 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (1.7) | Civey (2.5) | Linke +5.6 (Infratest dimap) |
| Bremen | 26 May 2019 | 3 | Infratest dimap (0.6) | INSA (0.7) | SPD -1.9 (INSA) |
| European election | 26 May 2019 | 5 | Ipsos (1.1) | Infratest dimap (1.4) | Grüne -3.5 (Infratest dimap) |
| Hesse | 28 Oct 2018 | 4 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (0.8) | Infratest dimap (1.1) | SPD +2.2 (Civey) |
| Bavaria | 14 Oct 2018 | 5 | Infratest dimap (1.3) | Civey (1.8) | CSU -4.3 (Civey) |
| Lower Saxony | 15 Oct 2017 | 4 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (1.0) | INSA (1.8) | SPD -3.9 (INSA) |
| Bundestag | 24 Sep 2017 | 10 | INSA (1.1) | YouGov (2.1) | CDU/CSU +4.1 (Infratest dimap) |
| North Rhine-Westphalia | 14 May 2017 | 6 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (0.7) | YouGov (1.9) | CDU -4.0 (Forsa) |
| Schleswig-Holstein | 7 May 2017 | 3 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (0.6) | Infratest dimap (1.3) | SPD +3.8 (Infratest dimap) |
| Saarland | 26 Mar 2017 | 4 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (1.3) | Forsa (2.0) | CDU -6.7 (Forsa) |
* preliminary official result. Results from the Federal Returning Officer and the state returning officers, see Method.