North Rhine-Westphalia state election 2027 forecast: who is ahead?
North Rhine-Westphalia state election on 25 April 2027. Polls as of 23 September 2026, 2 pollsters. CDU leads with 30.5%; CDU remains the strongest party in over 99% of simulated outcomes. Polls are not a prediction but a snapshot of today's mood. How far they typically still move before the election is shown further down.
If the state election were held today
Unweighted average of the latest poll from each pollster within the last 120 days, compared with the result of the last election on 15 May 2022.
- CDU30.5%-5.2
- AfD19.5%+14.1
- Grüne16.5%-1.7
- SPD15.5%-11.2
- Linke7.0%+4.9
- FDP4.0%-1.9
- Others7.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 15 May 2022.
What the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia would look like today
181 seats by Sainte-Laguë/Schepers, without overhang and levelling seats. Electoral threshold 5%. The incumbent government of CDU and Grüne would hold 96 of 181 seats today and would still have a majority.
- CDU62
- AfD40
- Grüne34
- SPD31
- Linke14
- CDU + AfD102 of 181
- CDU + GrüneGovernment96 of 181
- CDU + SPD93 of 181
- AfD + Grüne + SPD105 of 181
How likely are the majorities?
The seat projection is recalculated 3,000 times with randomly varied polling figures. The spread per party follows from sampling error and from how far polls have missed that party at earlier elections. This is the uncertainty of the polls today, not the uncertainty up to polling day.
Majority in parliament
- CDU + GrüneGovernment79%
- CDU + AfD96%
- CDU + SPD67%
- AfD + Grüne + SPD99%
- AfD + Grüneunder 1%
- AfD + SPDunder 1%
- Grüne + SPDunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- FDP (±1.1)18%
- Linke (±1.8)86%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
How reliable is a forecast 214 days before the election?
For every election since 2017 we calculated the polling average as it stood 7 days to 2 years before polling day and compared it with the official result. Deviation per party is the average across all parties at an election; largest deviation is the party that was furthest off.
At the current lead time of 214 days, polling averages at 31 elections were off by 3.9 points per party on average, and by 8.7 points for the party missed most. CDU's lead is larger than this range.
| Lead time | Elections | Deviation per party | Largest deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 38 | ± 1.6 points | ± 4.0 points |
| 1 month | 37 | ± 2.3 points | ± 5.8 points |
| 3 months | 36 | ± 2.9 points | ± 7.0 points |
| 6 months | 34 | ± 3.5 points | ± 8.0 points |
| 1 yearnow | 31 | ± 3.9 points | ± 8.7 points |
| 2 years | 25 | ± 4.5 points | ± 9.8 points |
Only elections in North Rhine-Westphalia since 2017
| Lead time | Elections | Deviation per party | Largest deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 2 | ± 2.2 points | ± 4.9 points |
| 1 month | 2 | ± 2.7 points | ± 6.2 points |
| 3 months | 2 | ± 2.7 points | ± 6.1 points |
| 6 months | 1 | ± 5.1 points | ± 12.7 points |
| 1 yearnow | 1 | ± 5.8 points | ± 9.2 points |
| 2 years | 1 | ± 2.8 points | ± 7.2 points |
What has shifted since the last election
Polling trend since 15 May 2022. The “Change” view shows gains and losses since the start of the period.
What this forecast can and cannot do
An election poll measures the mood at the time of fieldwork. A forecast in the strict sense only exists on election night at 6 pm, from the exit polls. Everything before that is a projection of the polls: we show what the current figures would mean, and how large the error of such projections has been in the past.
Lead candidates, coalition statements and issues can change before the 2027 state election. Shortly before the election, polls become more frequent and more accurate; this page updates automatically with every new poll.
Source of the polls: dawum.de (Open Database License). Averages, seats, probabilities and accuracy are our own calculations at wahlergebnisse.io.