Hamburg state election: latest polls and 2025 result
Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 180 days, as of 30 September 2026 (38 days ago). Next election: expected spring 2030; see also the Hamburg state election 2030 forecast. Sunday question Hamburg: average, pollsters and trend.
SPD leads with 30.0%, 12.5 points ahead of Grüne (17.5%). Biggest movement over 180 days: CDU −6.0 and AfD +3.0.
How is the polling average calculated?
We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 180 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.
Why do pollsters differ?
Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.
Averaging the 2 latest polls for the Hamburg state election, SPD leads with 30.0%, followed by Grüne on 17.5%.
- Lead at the top
- SPD 12.5 points ahead of Grüne
- Movement over 180 days
- CDU −6.0 · AfD +3.0 · Grüne −2.5
- Two-party majorities
- SPD + Grüne
- Current government
- SPD + Grüne: 64 of 121 seats, majority
- Basis
- 2 pollsters, latest poll 30 September 2026
These polls feed into the average
Each pollster's latest poll from the past 180 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.
| Party | Average 30 Sep 2026 | Trend Research Hamburg 30 Sep 2026 | INSA 20 Jun 2026 | 2025 election |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPD | 30.0 | 29.0 | 31.0 | 33.5 |
| Grüne | 17.5 | 18.0 | 17.0 | 18.5 |
| Linke | 14.5 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 11.2 |
| CDU | 14.0 | 12.0 | 16.0 | 19.8 |
| AfD | 13.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 7.5 |
| FDP | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| BSW | 3.0 | 3.0 | – | 1.8 |
| Volt | 2.0 | 2.0 | – | 3.2 |
| Others | 5.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 2.2 |
Values in percent, latest poll per pollster within the averaging window. Bold: highest value per party.
| Pollster | Published | SPD | Grüne | Linke | CDU | AfD | FDP | BSW | Volt | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Research Hamburg | 30 Sep 2026 | 29 | 18 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| INSA | 20 Jun 2026 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 3 | – | – | 7 |
House effects: which pollster rates whom higher?
Since 30 September 2024, Trend Research Hamburg has measured CDU on average 4.0 points below the average of the other pollsters, Trend Research Hamburg has measured AfD on average 2.3 points above the average of the other pollsters, Infratest dimap has measured Linke on average 1.6 points above the average of the other pollsters.
Adjusted for these house effects, CDU would stand at 16.0% instead of 14.0%, AfD would stand at 11.9% instead of 13.0%, Linke would stand at 13.8% instead of 14.5%. The current average is therefore shaped by which pollsters published most recently.
| Pollster | Polls | SPD | Grüne | Linke | CDU | AfD | FDP | BSW | Volt | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infratest dimap | 5 | -0.7 | +0.2 | +1.6 | -0.8 | +0.3 | -0.4 | -0.2 | – | 0.6 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 3 | +1.3 | -1.0 | +1.5 | -4.0 | +2.3 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.3 | 1.4 |
| Raw average | 30.0% | 17.5% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | ||
| Adjusted for house effects | 29.4%(-0.6) | 18.0%(+0.5) | 13.8%(-0.7) | 16.0%(+2.0) | 11.9%(-1.1) | 3.1%(+0.1) | 3.4%(+0.4) | 2.3%(+0.3) |
Positive: the pollster measures the party higher than the other pollsters' rolling 180-day average on the same day. Only pollsters with at least 3 polls since 30 September 2024.
Seat distribution in the Hamburg Bürgerschaft
Under Sainte-Laguë, the 121 seats would split into 40 for SPD, 24 for Grüne, 20 for Linke, 19 for CDU, 18 for AfD. FDP, Volt, BSW would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 121 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Five per cent threshold, waived for parties with one constituency seat
- SPD40
- Grüne24
- Linke20
- CDU19
- AfD18
SPD would be the largest group with 40 of 121 seats; a majority needs 61. FDP, BSW and Volt would miss the threshold and win no seats.
How is the seat distribution calculated?
Seats are allocated by the Sainte-Laguë/Schepers method among all parties above the 5% threshold (Fünf-Prozent-Hürde, Ausnahme bei einem Direktmandat), based on the polling average. The parliament has 121 seats; a majority needs 61. Overhang or levelling seats and constituency effects are not modelled.
Which coalitions would have a majority?
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.
One two-party alliance has a majority: SPD + Grüne. The current government (SPD and Grüne) would keep its majority with 64 seats.
Which coalitions are shown?
All two- and three-party alliances with at least 61 of 121 seats. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. Tap parties in the calculator to test any other combination; exclusions can be set under Settings.
- SPD + GrüneGovernment64 of 121
- SPD + Linke + CDU79 of 121
- SPD + Linke + AfD78 of 121
- SPD + CDU + AfD77 of 121
- Grüne + Linke + CDU63 of 121
- Grüne + Linke + AfD62 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + AfD61 of 121
SPD + Grüne had a majority in all 48 months; currently also holding a majority: SPD + Linke + CDU (throughout the period) and SPD + CDU + AfD (throughout the period).
How is the coalition timeline calculated?
For the end of each of the last 48 months the polling average is computed as it stood on that date: the latest poll from each pollster within the preceding 180 days, averaged without weighting. Seats are then allocated using the parliament's method and threshold. An alliance has a majority in a month if its seats add up to at least half plus one. The most recent month uses the current average.
Which alliances are shown?
The incumbent government, the alliances with a majority in the current average and the pairs of the four largest parties. A filled cell means an arithmetic majority in that month, a pale cell none. The bar says nothing about whether an alliance is politically feasible.
How secure are the majorities?
Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.
Majority in parliament
- SPD + GrüneGovernment85%
- SPD + Linke + CDUover 99%
- SPD + Linke + AfDover 99%
- SPD + CDU + AfDover 99%
- Grüne + Linke + CDU68%
- Grüne + Linke + AfD56%
- Grüne + CDU + AfD47%
- SPD + Linke47%
- SPD + CDU38%
- Grüne + Linkeunder 1%
- Grüne + CDUunder 1%
- Linke + CDUunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- FDP (±1.1)3%
- BSW (±1.3)6%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
SPD, Linke and CDU holds a majority in 100% of 3,000 simulations. Uncertain at the 5% threshold: BSW (6% above).
How are the probabilities calculated?
We recompute the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied poll values. The variation per party combines the sampling error of the average with the historical error of polls before elections since 2017. The probability is the share of runs in which an alliance reaches 61 seats.
Polling trend: how the polls moved since 31 October 2024
Since 31 Oct 2024 Linke +8.7 and AfD +3.6 gained, while CDU −4.0 and Grüne −3.3 lost points.
How does the rolling average work?
Each point is one poll. The line is the average of all polls of the previous 180 days, one per pollster, so a single outlier moves it only slightly. Choose a period, an end month or the area view to explore the history back to 2017.
Search interest by party in Hamburg
Each party's share of Google searches for the eight parties in the state, last 90 days. For comparison the current poll rating, where the party is listed in the state's polls.
In Hamburg, AfD accounts for 52.6% of the search interest across the eight parties, ahead of CDU/CSU on 15.1%. In the state's polls AfD stands at 13.0%.
How is the search share by state calculated?
Google Trends reports for each state how search interest is distributed across the compared parties over the last 90 days. Two groups of five are linked through the AfD as a common yardstick; CDU and CSU are added together.
Accuracy ahead of the election on 2 Mar 2025
Before the Hamburg state election on 2 Mar 2025, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen came closest to the result with an average error of 1.1 points per party, INSA was furthest away with 2.0 points. All pollsters underestimated CDU (by 2.3 points on average) and overestimated AfD (by 2.3 points on average). Official preliminary result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.
| Pollster | Poll dated | SPD | CDU | Grüne | Linke | AfD | Volt | FDP | BSW | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 2 Mar 2025(preliminary) | 33.5% | 19.8% | 18.5% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 27 Feb 2025 (3 days before) | -0.5 | -1.8 | -1.5 | +0.8 | +1.5 | -0.2 | – | – | 1.1 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Mar 2025 (1 day before) | ±0 | -1.8 | -2.0 | +2.8 | +1.5 | – | +0.2 | +0.7 | 1.3 |
| Infratest dimap | 20 Feb 2025 (10 days before) | -1.5 | -2.8 | -0.5 | -1.2 | +2.5 | -0.2 | +0.7 | +1.2 | 1.3 |
| INSA | 27 Feb 2025 (3 days before) | -1.5 | -2.8 | -2.5 | +1.8 | +3.5 | – | +0.7 | +1.2 | 2.0 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.
All polls for the Hamburg state election
46 polls since 7 March 2018. Pollsters: Trend Research Hamburg, INSA, Infratest dimap, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Forsa, Civey, Policy Matters, Universität Hamburg.
| Pollster | Published | SPD | Grüne | Linke | CDU | AfD | FDP | BSW | Volt | Others | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Research Hamburg | 30 Sep 2026 | 29 | 18 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | ||
| INSA | 20 Jun 2026 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 3 | – | – | 7 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 25 Mar 2026 | 30 | 20 | 12 | 20 | 10 | – | – | – | 8 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Mar 2025 | 33.5 | 16.5 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | – | 4 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 27 Feb 2025 | 33 | 17 | 12 | 18 | 9 | – | – | 3 | 8 | ||
| INSA | 27 Feb 2025 | 32 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | – | 5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 20 Feb 2025 | 32 | 18 | 10 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 14 Feb 2025 | 32 | 19 | 9 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 5 Feb 2025 | 31 | 20 | 8 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 3 | – | 8 | ||
| Trend Research Hamburg | 27 Jan 2025 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 15 Jan 2025 | 31 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | – | 8 | ||
| Trend Research Hamburg | 16 Dec 2024 | 32 | 20 | 7 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 27 Nov 2024 | 30 | 21 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Forsa | 31 Oct 2024 | 30 | 21 | 5 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 4 | – | 7 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Apr 2024 | 32 | 21.5 | 6 | 18.5 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 2 | – | 8 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 7 Feb 2024 | 30 | 21 | 7 | 20 | 9 | 5 | – | – | 8 | ||
| Trend Research Hamburg | 1 Nov 2023 | 31 | 19 | 10 | 18 | 14 | 4 | – | – | 4 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 2 Oct 2023 | 24.5 | 21.5 | 8.5 | 21 | 13 | 3 | – | – | 8.5 | ||
| Civey | 26 Oct 2022 | 29 | 30 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 4 | – | – | 7 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 16 Sep 2022 | 32 | 27 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 6 | – | – | 5 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Jan 2022 | 40 | 26.5 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 7 | – | – | 5.5 | ||
| Policy Matters | 25 Jun 2020 | 39 | 23 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 5 | – | – | 4 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 20 Feb 2020 | 39 | 24 | 8.5 | 12 | 6 | 5 | – | – | 5.5 | ||
| Universität Hamburg | 20 Feb 2020 | 34 | 32 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 6 | – | – | 5 | ||
| Civey | 19 Feb 2020 | 35.4 | 24.5 | 8.6 | 13.8 | 7.9 | 5.2 | – | – | 4.6 | ||
| INSA | 19 Feb 2020 | 38 | 23 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 5 | – | – | 6 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 14 Feb 2020 | 37 | 25 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 4.5 | – | – | 5.5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 13 Feb 2020 | 38 | 23 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 5 | – | – | 6 | ||
| Trend Research Hamburg | 10 Feb 2020 | 33 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 7 | – | – | 5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 6 Feb 2020 | 34 | 27 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 5 | – | – | 5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 23 Jan 2020 | 32 | 27 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 6 | – | – | 4 | ||
| Civey | 21 Jan 2020 | 30.2 | 24.9 | 8.6 | 15.7 | 6.9 | 7.2 | – | – | 6.5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 9 Jan 2020 | 29 | 29 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 7 | – | – | 4 | ||
| Trend Research Hamburg | 9 Jan 2020 | 32 | 23 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 8 | – | – | 4 | ||
| Forsa | 6 Jan 2020 | 29 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 7 | – | – | 5 | ||
| Civey | 20 Dec 2019 | 30.4 | 24.1 | 13.7 | 13.6 | 7.5 | 7.4 | – | – | 3.3 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 17 Dec 2019 | 28 | 26 | 11 | 17 | 7 | 6 | – | – | 5 | ||
| Trend Research Hamburg | 18 Nov 2019 | 32 | 23 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 7 | – | – | 4 | ||
| INSA | 12 Nov 2019 | 25 | 26 | 12 | 17 | 8 | 8 | – | – | 4 | ||
| Trend Research Hamburg | 17 Sep 2019 | 28 | 28 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 6 | – | – | 4 | ||
| Min – Max | 24.5–40 | 16–32 | 5–15 | 10–21 | 5–14 | 2.5–8 | 2–4 | 2–3 | 3–8.5 | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
The 40 latest of 46 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.
The Hamburg state election at a glance
At the last Hamburg state election on 2 March 2025, SPD became the largest party with 33.5%, defending first place from 2020. The biggest move compared with 2020: CDU gained 8.6 points.
Hamburg is governed by SPD and Grüne. On the current polling average this alliance would win 64 of 121 seats and would keep its majority.
46 polls for the Hamburg state election have been published since 7 March 2018, 3 of them this year. Most come from Infratest dimap (12), Trend Research Hamburg (8), Institut Wahlkreisprognose (5). Recently a new poll has appeared every 56 days on average.
The next Hamburg state election is expected in spring 2030. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 16 or over is eligible to vote.
- The ballot booklet is among the most extensive in Germany.
- One constituency seat exempts a party from the threshold.
Results: 2 Mar 2025* · 23 Feb 2020. Pollster accuracy.
- Parliament
- Hamburg Bürgerschaft
- Seats
- 121 (regular size)
- Constituencies
- 71
- Threshold
- 5 per cent
- Seat allocation
- Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
- Votes
- ten votes: five for constituency lists, five for the state list, each of which can be cumulated
- Term
- 5 years
- Voting age
- 16 years
- Last election
- 2 March 2025
- Next election
- expected spring 2030
- Government
- SPD, Grüne
2024 European election in Hamburg
In the European election on 9 June 2024, Grüne came first in Hamburg with 21.1% of the vote. The bars show the European election shares, the small figures the gap to the 2025 federal election in the same area.
In the 2024 European election, Grüne was the strongest party in Hamburg with 21.1%, +1.8 points compared with the 2025 federal election. Turnout was 66.0% (2025 federal election: 80.9%).
Why do the European and federal elections differ?
The European election has no electoral threshold, so small parties such as Volt, Die PARTEI or the animal-welfare party win more votes. Turnout is much lower, and the political mood shifted between June 2024 and February 2025. The single European-election vote is compared with the second vote of the federal election in the same area; parties that count as Others in 2025 get no difference.
Where do these figures come from?
Official final result of the 2024 European election from the Federal Returning Officer (kerg2.csv), votes per district and independent city.
| Party | Votes 2024 | European election 2024 | Federal election 2025 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grüne | 182,577 | 21.1% | 19.3% | +1.8 |
| SPD | 162,776 | 18.8% | 22.7% | -3.9 |
| CDU | 159,977 | 18.5% | 20.7% | -2.2 |
| AfD | 69,318 | 8.0% | 10.9% | -2.9 |
| FDP | 60,621 | 7.0% | 4.5% | +2.5 |
| Volt | 51,349 | 5.9% | 1.5% | +4.4 |
| Linke | 44,373 | 5.1% | 14.5% | -9.4 |
| BSW | 42,586 | 4.9% | 4.0% | +0.9 |
| Die PARTEI | 21,787 | 2.5% | – | – |
| Tierschutzpartei | 13,019 | 1.5% | – | – |
| Freie Wähler | 4,086 | 0.5% | 0.4% | +0.1 |
| ÖDP | 3,494 | 0.4% | – | – |
| Others | 49,323 | 5.7% | – | – |
Die PARTEI, Tierschutzpartei, ÖDP: counted as Others in the 2025 federal election, so no difference is shown.
Source: Federal Returning Officer, 2024 European election, results by state and district (kerg2.csv) (file), final result, retrieved 28 Sep 2026, Data licence Germany, attribution 2.0. Berlin East and Berlin West are aggregated from the boroughs as in the 2025 federal election. Comparison values: second votes of the 2025 federal election in the same area. Compiled by wahlergebnisse.io.
Hamburg in figures
Key facts about the place from official statistics and Wikidata, so the election result can be put in context. The figures describe, they do not explain.
- Population
- 1,869,473 (as of 2025-12-31)
- Area
- 755.1 km²
- Population density
- 2,476 inhabitants per km²
- Under 19
- 17.9%
- 67 and older
- 16.3%
- Foreign nationals (2022 census)
- 16.9%
- Employees subject to social insurance (place of work)
- 1,091,980 (as of 2025-12-31)
- Largest sectors
- Real estate, professional services 14% · Trade and vehicle repair 13% · Health and social work 13%
- Commuter balance
- +255,621 (more in-commuters than out-commuters)
- Otto Group
- 49,895 employees (2020)
- Fielmann
- 23,412 employees (2023)
- Beiersdorf AG
- 21,743 employees (2023-12-31)
- Jungheinrich AG
- 21,000 employees (2023)
- Elevation
- 6 m
- Twin towns
- 15
- Website
- www.hamburg.de
- Wikipedia
- Hamburg (Wikipedia)
Hamburg has 1,869,473 inhabitants. The largest sector is Real estate, professional services with 14% of employees. The largest company headquartered in Hamburg is EDEKA with 413,000 employees.
Where do the profile figures come from?
Population, area and coordinates from the Federal Statistical Office's municipality register, employees, sectors and unemployment from the Federal Employment Agency, age structure from the 2022 census, coat of arms, website and companies from Wikidata and Wikimedia Commons. All sources are openly licensed and linked below the list.
Does the profile explain the election result?
No. It describes the place so readers can put figures in context. Whether sector, age or density relate to voting can only be tested across many places, not from a single result.
Sources: Wikidata (CC0 1.0) · Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Gemeindeverzeichnis GV-ISys (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0) · Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (© Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nutzung mit Quellenangabe) · Zensus 2022, Statistische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder, Regionaltabelle Demografie (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0)
Hamburg: largest party by district
Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.
Strongest party: SPD in 1 district of 1. Highest share: SPD with 22.7% in Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt.
What does the map show?
Each district is coloured by the party with the highest second-vote share at the 2025 federal election; the intensity follows the share. Tap or hover a district for the exact figure and turnout, click to open the district page with all municipalities.
All districts and municipalities in Hamburg · Map of Germany
Districts, cities and constituencies in Hamburg
Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.
Districts and independent cities
The largest cities
- Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt, Bezirk WandsbekCDU 25.5%
- Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt, Bezirk Hamburg-NordGrüne 23.9%
- Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt, Bezirk EimsbüttelGrüne 23.9%
- Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt, Bezirk AltonaGrüne 23.7%
- Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt, Bezirk Hamburg-MitteSPD 23.0%
- Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt, Bezirk HarburgSPD 23.6%
- Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt, Bezirk BergedorfSPD 23.3%
Constituencies at the 2025 federal election
Strongest party: SPD in 3 constituencies, Grüne in 2 constituencies and CDU in 1 constituency of 6. Highest share: SPD with 32.3% in 22 Hamburg-Wandsbek.
What does the map show?
Each constituency is coloured by the party whose candidate won the direct seat at the 2025 federal election (first votes). Click a constituency for its results, candidates and the current nowcast.
All constituencies in Hamburg as a list · All districts and municipalities
All Hamburg state elections since 1946: result, seats and turnout
There have been 21 state elections in Hamburg since 1946. SPD was the largest party 16 times; most recently SPD led in 2025 with 33.5%. Turnout ranged from 57.3% (2020) to 84.0% (1987).
Shares in percent, seats in brackets. Parties without a seat in any election are counted under Others.
| Year | Turnout | Seats | SPD | CDU | Grüne | Linke/PDS | AfD | FDP | KPD/DKP | STATT-Partei | DP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 67.7% | 121 | 33.5% (45) | 19.8% (26) | 18.5% (25) | 11.2% (15) | 7.5% (10) | 2.3% (0) | – | – | – | 5.4% |
| 2020 | 57.3% | 121 | 48.4% (62) | 21.9% (28) | 11.2% (14) | 6.4% (8) | – | 6.7% (9) | – | – | – | 2.5% |
| 2015 | 63.5% | 121 | 34.1% (45) | 42.6% (56) | 9.6% (12) | 6.4% (8) | – | 4.8% (0) | – | – | – | 1.7% |
| 2011 | 68.7% | 121 | 30.5% (41) | 47.2% (63) | 12.3% (17) | – | – | 2.8% (0) | – | – | – | 6.5% |
| 2008 | 71.0% | 121 | 36.5% (46) | 26.2% (33) | 8.6% (11) | 0.4% (0) | – | 5.1% (6) | – | 0.4% (0) | – | 2.6% |
| 2004 | 69.5% | 121 | 36.2% (54) | 30.7% (46) | 13.9% (21) | 0.7% (0) | – | 3.5% (0) | – | 3.8% (0) | 0.0% (0) | 4.2% |
| 2001 | 69.6% | 121 | 40.4% (58) | 25.1% (36) | 13.5% (19) | 0.5% (0) | – | 4.2% (0) | – | 5.6% (8) | – | 3.1% |
| 1997 | 66.1% | 121 | 48.0% (61) | 35.1% (44) | 7.2% (9) | 0.5% (0) | – | 5.4% (7) | 0.1% (0) | – | – | 2.5% |
| 1993 | 79.6% | 120 | 45.0% (55) | 40.5% (49) | 7.0% (8) | – | – | 6.5% (8) | – | – | – | 1.0% |
| 1991 | 78.1% | 120 | 41.7% (53) | 41.9% (54) | 10.4% (13) | – | – | 4.8% (0) | 0.2% (0) | – | – | 0.9% |
| 1987 | 84.0% | 120 | 51.3% (64) | 38.6% (48) | 6.8% (8) | – | – | 2.6% (0) | 0.4% (0) | – | – | 0.3% |
| 1986 | 77.9% | 120 | 42.7% (55) | 43.2% (56) | 7.7% (9) | – | – | 4.9% (0) | 0.6% (0) | – | – | 0.9% |
| 1978 | 76.7% | 120 | 51.5% (69) | 37.6% (51) | 4.5% (0) | – | – | 4.8% (0) | 1.0% (0) | – | – | – |
| 1974 | 80.4% | 120 | 45.0% (56) | 40.6% (51) | – | – | – | 10.9% (13) | 2.2% (0) | – | – | 0.6% |
| 1970 | 73.4% | 120 | 55.3% (70) | 32.8% (41) | – | – | – | 7.1% (9) | 1.7% (0) | – | – | 0.4% |
| 1966 | 69.8% | 120 | 59.0% (74) | 30.0% (38) | – | – | – | 6.8% (8) | – | – | – | 0.3% |
| 1961 | 72.3% | 120 | 57.4% (72) | 29.1% (36) | – | – | – | 9.6% (12) | – | – | – | 3.0% |
| 1957 | 77.3% | 120 | 53.9% (69) | 32.2% (41) | – | – | – | 8.6% (10) | – | – | 4.1% (0) | 0.8% |
| 1953 | 80.9% | 120 | 45.2% (58) | 50.0% (62) | – | – | – | – | 3.2% (0) | – | – | 0.9% |
| 1949 | 70.5% | 120 | 42.8% (65) | 34.5% (40) | – | – | – | – | 7.4% (5) | – | 13.3% (9) | 2.0% |
| 1946 | 79.0% | 110 | 43.1% (83) | 26.7% (16) | – | – | – | 18.2% (7) | 10.4% (4) | – | – | 1.6% |
Source: Landeswahlleitungen und Bundeswahlleiterin, zusammengeführt über wahlrecht.de/ergebnisse; Hamburg 2025: Statistikamt Nord, as of 29 Sep 2026. Official seats including overhang and compensatory seats; predecessor parties merged (Linke/PDS, Grüne/Bündnis 90).
Who won the state elections in Hamburg?
Largest party per election: 2025 SPD (33.5%), 2020 SPD (48.4%), 2015 CDU (42.6%), 2011 CDU (47.2%), 2008 SPD (36.5%), 2004 SPD (36.2%), 2001 SPD (40.4%), 1997 SPD (48.0%), 1993 SPD (45.0%), 1991 CDU (41.9%), 1987 SPD (51.3%), 1986 CDU (43.2%), 1978 SPD (51.5%), 1974 SPD (45.0%), 1970 SPD (55.3%), 1966 SPD (59.0%), 1961 SPD (57.4%), 1957 SPD (53.9%), 1953 CDU (50.0%), 1949 SPD (42.8%), 1946 SPD (43.1%).
Pollsters
Which pollsters survey the Hamburg state election and when they last did.
- Trend Research Hamburg17 Sep 2019
- INSA12 Nov 2019
- Infratest dimap25 Feb 2019
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose30 Jan 2022
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen14 Feb 2020
- Forsa16 Apr 2018
- Civey20 Dec 2019
- Policy Matters7 Mar 2018
- Universität Hamburg20 Mar 2019