Hamburg state election: latest polls and 2025 result
Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 180 days, as of 20 June 2026 (95 days ago). Next election: expected spring 2030; see also the Hamburg state election 2030 forecast.
- SPD30.5%-3.0
- Grüne18.5%±0
- CDU18.0%-1.8
- Linke13.0%+1.8
- AfD11.0%+3.5
- FDP3.0%+0.7
- Others7.5%+0.3
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 2 Mar 2025.
Averaging the 2 latest polls for the Hamburg state election, SPD leads with 30.5%, followed by Grüne on 18.5%.
- Lead at the topSPD 12.0 points ahead of Grüne
- Movement over 180 daysLinke +3.0 · SPD −1.9 · AfD +1.3
- Two-party majoritiesSPD + Grüne · SPD + CDU
- Current governmentSPD + Grüne: 65 of 121 seats, majority
- Basis2 pollsters, latest poll 20 June 2026
These polls feed into the average
Each pollster's latest poll from the past 180 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.
| Pollster | Published | SPD | Grüne | CDU | Linke | AfD | FDP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 20 Jun 2026 | 31 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 25 Mar 2026 | 30 | 20 | 20 | 12 | 10 | – | 8 |
Seat distribution in the Hamburg Bürgerschaft
Under Sainte-Laguë, the 121 seats would split into 40 for SPD, 25 for Grüne, 24 for CDU, 17 for Linke, 15 for AfD. FDP would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 121 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Five per cent threshold, waived for parties with one constituency seat
Which coalitions would have a majority?
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.
- SPD + GrüneGovernment65 of 121
- SPD + CDU64 of 121
- SPD + Linke + AfD72 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + Linke66 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + AfD64 of 121
How secure are the majorities?
Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.
Majority in parliament
- SPD + GrüneGovernment92%
- SPD + CDU88%
- SPD + Linke + AfDover 99%
- Grüne + CDU + Linke93%
- Grüne + CDU + AfD78%
- SPD + Linke21%
- Grüne + CDUunder 1%
- Grüne + Linkeunder 1%
- CDU + Linkeunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- FDP (±1.1)3%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
Polling trend since 31 October 2024
Accuracy ahead of the election on 2 Mar 2025
Before the Hamburg state election on 2 Mar 2025, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen came closest to the result with an average error of 1.1 points per party, INSA was furthest away with 2.0 points. All pollsters underestimated CDU (by 2.3 points on average) and overestimated AfD (by 2.3 points on average). Official preliminary result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.
| Pollster | Poll dated | SPD | CDU | Grüne | Linke | AfD | Volt | FDP | BSW | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 2 Mar 2025(preliminary) | 33.5% | 19.8% | 18.5% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 27 Feb 2025 (3 days before) | -0.5 | -1.8 | -1.5 | +0.8 | +1.5 | -0.2 | – | – | 1.1 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Mar 2025 (1 day before) | ±0 | -1.8 | -2.0 | +2.8 | +1.5 | – | +0.2 | +0.7 | 1.3 |
| Infratest dimap | 20 Feb 2025 (10 days before) | -1.5 | -2.8 | -0.5 | -1.2 | +2.5 | -0.2 | +0.7 | +1.2 | 1.3 |
| INSA | 27 Feb 2025 (3 days before) | -1.5 | -2.8 | -2.5 | +1.8 | +3.5 | – | +0.7 | +1.2 | 2.0 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.
All polls for the Hamburg state election
45 polls since 7 March 2018. Pollsters: INSA, Infratest dimap, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Trend Research Hamburg, Forsa, Civey, Policy Matters, Universität Hamburg.
| Pollster | Published | SPD | Grüne | CDU | Linke | AfD | FDP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 20 Jun 2026 | 31 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 25 Mar 2026 | 30 | 20 | 20 | 12 | 10 | – | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Mar 2025 | 33.5 | 16.5 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 2.5 | 4 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 27 Feb 2025 | 33 | 17 | 18 | 12 | 9 | – | 8 |
| INSA | 27 Feb 2025 | 32 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 20 Feb 2025 | 32 | 18 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 4 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 14 Feb 2025 | 32 | 19 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 4 |
| Infratest dimap | 5 Feb 2025 | 31 | 20 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 8 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 27 Jan 2025 | 34 | 20 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 4 |
| Infratest dimap | 15 Jan 2025 | 31 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 8 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 16 Dec 2024 | 32 | 20 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Infratest dimap | 27 Nov 2024 | 30 | 21 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 5 |
| Forsa | 31 Oct 2024 | 30 | 21 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Apr 2024 | 32 | 21.5 | 18.5 | 6 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 8 |
| Infratest dimap | 7 Feb 2024 | 30 | 21 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 8 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 1 Nov 2023 | 31 | 19 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 4 | 4 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 2 Oct 2023 | 24.5 | 21.5 | 21 | 8.5 | 13 | 3 | 8.5 |
| Civey | 26 Oct 2022 | 29 | 30 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 16 Sep 2022 | 32 | 27 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Jan 2022 | 40 | 26.5 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5.5 |
| Policy Matters | 25 Jun 2020 | 39 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 20 Feb 2020 | 39 | 24 | 12 | 8.5 | 6 | 5 | 5.5 |
| Universität Hamburg | 20 Feb 2020 | 34 | 32 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Civey | 19 Feb 2020 | 35.4 | 24.5 | 13.8 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 4.6 |
| INSA | 19 Feb 2020 | 38 | 23 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 14 Feb 2020 | 37 | 25 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 13 Feb 2020 | 38 | 23 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 10 Feb 2020 | 33 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 6 Feb 2020 | 34 | 27 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 23 Jan 2020 | 32 | 27 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| Civey | 21 Jan 2020 | 30.2 | 24.9 | 15.7 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 6.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 9 Jan 2020 | 29 | 29 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 9 Jan 2020 | 32 | 23 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 4 |
| Forsa | 6 Jan 2020 | 29 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| Civey | 20 Dec 2019 | 30.4 | 24.1 | 13.6 | 13.7 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.3 |
| Infratest dimap | 17 Dec 2019 | 28 | 26 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 18 Nov 2019 | 32 | 23 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| INSA | 12 Nov 2019 | 25 | 26 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 4 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 17 Sep 2019 | 28 | 28 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 |
| Policy Matters | 28 May 2019 | 30 | 22 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 2 |
The 40 latest of 45 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.
The Hamburg state election at a glance
At the last Hamburg state election on 2 March 2025, SPD became the largest party with 33.5%, defending first place from 2020. The biggest move compared with 2020: CDU gained 8.6 points.
Hamburg is governed by SPD and Grüne. On the current polling average this alliance would win 65 of 121 seats and would keep its majority.
45 polls for the Hamburg state election have been published since 7 March 2018, 2 of them this year. Most come from Infratest dimap (12), Trend Research Hamburg (7), Institut Wahlkreisprognose (5). Recently a new poll has appeared every 50 days on average.
The next Hamburg state election is expected in spring 2030. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 16 or over is eligible to vote.
- The ballot booklet is among the most extensive in Germany.
- One constituency seat exempts a party from the threshold.
Results: 2 Mar 2025* · 23 Feb 2020. Pollster accuracy.
- Parliament
- Hamburg Bürgerschaft
- Seats
- 121 (regular size)
- Constituencies
- 71
- Threshold
- 5 per cent
- Seat allocation
- Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
- Votes
- ten votes: five for constituency lists, five for the state list, each of which can be cumulated
- Term
- 5 years
- Voting age
- 16 years
- Last election
- 2 March 2025
- Next election
- expected spring 2030
- Government
- SPD, Grüne
Hamburg: largest party by district
Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.
All districts and municipalities in Hamburg · Map of Germany
Districts, cities and constituencies in Hamburg
Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.
Districts and independent cities
The largest cities
- Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt, Bezirk WandsbekCDU 25.5%
- Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt, Bezirk Hamburg-NordGrüne 23.9%
- Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt, Bezirk EimsbüttelGrüne 23.9%
- Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt, Bezirk AltonaGrüne 23.7%
- Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt, Bezirk Hamburg-MitteSPD 23.0%
- Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt, Bezirk HarburgSPD 23.6%
- Hamburg, Freie und Hansestadt, Bezirk BergedorfSPD 23.3%
Constituencies at the 2025 federal election
All constituencies in Hamburg as a list · All districts and municipalities
Pollsters
Which pollsters survey the Hamburg state election and when they last did.
- INSA12 Nov 2019
- Infratest dimap25 Feb 2019
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose30 Jan 2022
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen14 Feb 2020
- Trend Research Hamburg17 Sep 2019
- Forsa16 Apr 2018
- Civey20 Dec 2019
- Policy Matters7 Mar 2018
- Universität Hamburg20 Mar 2019