Trend Research Hamburg poll of 27 January 2025 for the Hamburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Radio Hamburg / Die ZEIT
- Fieldwork period
- 16 to 20 Jan 2025
- Respondents
- 890
- Method
- Online
- SPD34.0%+2.0
- Grüne20.0%±0
- CDU16.0%-1.0
- AfD11.0%+1.0
- Linke6.0%-1.0
- FDP3.0%-1.0
- Volt3.0%±0
- BSW3.0%-1.0
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Trend Research Hamburg poll of 16 Dec 2024.
In this poll Trend Research Hamburg has SPD ahead on 34.0%, followed by Grüne on 20.0%. 890 people were surveyed from 16 to 20 Jan 2025, method Online, commissioned by Radio Hamburg / Die ZEIT.
Compared with the previous Trend Research Hamburg poll of 16 Dec 2024, SPD gains 2.0 points, CDU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Trend Research Hamburg has SPD 3.5 points higher and CDU 3.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +3.5average 30.5
- CDU -3.0average 19.0
- AfD +2.5average 8.5
- Grüne -1.5average 21.5
- Linke +1.0average 5.0
- FDP -1.0average 4.0
- BSW -1.0average 4.0
- Volt ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.
- SPD48
- Grüne28
- CDU22
- AfD15
- Linke8
- SPD + Grüne76 of 121
- SPD + CDU70 of 121
- SPD + AfD63 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + AfD65 of 121
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.