Trend Research Hamburg poll of 16 December 2024 for the Hamburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Radio Hamburg / Die ZEIT
- Fieldwork period
- 5 to 10 Dec 2024
- Respondents
- 886
- Method
- Online
- SPD32.0%+1.0
- Grüne20.0%+1.0
- CDU17.0%-1.0
- AfD10.0%-4.0
- Linke7.0%-3.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- BSW4.0%
- Volt3.0%
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Trend Research Hamburg poll of 1 Nov 2023.
In this poll Trend Research Hamburg has SPD ahead on 32.0%, followed by Grüne on 20.0%. 886 people were surveyed from 5 to 10 Dec 2024, method Online, commissioned by Radio Hamburg / Die ZEIT.
Compared with the previous Trend Research Hamburg poll of 1 Nov 2023, AfD loses 4.0 points, Linke loses 3.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Trend Research Hamburg has CDU 3.0 points lower and SPD 2.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU -3.0average 20.0
- SPD +2.0average 30.0
- AfD +1.5average 8.5
- Linke +1.5average 5.5
- Grüne -1.0average 21.0
- FDP +0.5average 3.5
- BSW ±0average 4.0
- Volt ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
121 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.
- SPD45
- Grüne28
- CDU24
- AfD14
- Linke10
- SPD + Grüne73 of 121
- SPD + CDU69 of 121
- SPD + AfD + Linke69 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + AfD66 of 121
- Grüne + CDU + Linke62 of 121
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.