Party
CDU/CSU: current polling
CDU/CSU in polls for the federal election and in the states. Figures are the average of the latest poll from each pollster.
Federal election, polling average
20.3%
As of 22 Sep 2026, 10 pollsters
Versus election result 23 Feb 2025
-8.2
Election result 28.5%
Versus a year ago
-4.2
Average on 23 Sep 2025: 24.5%
Federal
CDU/CSU trend in federal election polls
Our analysis
Do polls overestimate or underestimate CDU/CSU?
Across 38 elections since 2017, the final polls before the election put CDU/CSU on average -0.8 points below the result (144 polls, mean absolute deviation 2.3 points). All parties and pollsters compared.
- Berlin 20 Sep 2026+0.8
- Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania 20 Sep 2026+2.3
- Saxony-Anhalt 6 Sep 2026+5.4
- Rhineland-Palatinate 22 Mar 2026-2.3
- Baden-Württemberg 8 Mar 2026-2.0
- Hamburg 2 Mar 2025-2.3
- Bundestag 23 Feb 2025+1.4
- Brandenburg 22 Sep 2024+2.8
- Saxony 1 Sep 2024+0.1
States
CDU/CSU in state election polls
Sorted by polling figure. States without a figure for the party are omitted.
| Election | Average |
|---|---|
| Bavaria | 38.0% |
| Hesse | 31.0% |
| North Rhine-Westphalia | 30.5% |
| European election | 30.1% |
| Schleswig-Holstein | 30.0% |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 28.0% |
| Baden-Württemberg | 27.3% |
| Saarland | 25.0% |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 22.6% |
| Bremen | 22.5% |
| Lower Saxony | 22.0% |
| Thuringia | 22.0% |
| Saxony | 21.0% |
| Berlin | 19.6% |
| Hamburg | 18.0% |
| Brandenburg | 13.0% |
| Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania | 7.2% |
Election result