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Baden-Württemberg polling average

Baden-Württemberg state election 2026: result, polls and government

Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, as of 10 April 2026 (166 days ago). Next election: expected spring 2031; see also the Baden-Württemberg state election 2031 forecast.

Next electionspring 2031expected, see the forecastLast election 8 Mar 2026Grüne 30.2%official result, all partiesGovernmentGrüne + CDU72 of 120 seats according to the polls, majorityPolls, as of 10 Apr 2026Grüne 27.8%leading in the average of all pollsters
Polling average Baden-Württemberg
Average of each pollster's latest poll, shares in percent
  • Grüne27.8%-2.4
  • CDU27.3%-2.4
  • AfD19.5%+0.7
  • SPD7.3%+1.8
  • Linke5.5%+1.1
  • FDP5.4%+1.0
  • Others7.4%+0.4

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 8 Mar 2026.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 10 Apr 2026
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Averaging the 4 latest polls for the Baden-Württemberg state election, Grüne leads with 27.8%, followed by CDU on 27.3%, a gap within the usual margin of error.

Basis

These polls feed into the average

Each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.

Polls in the average for the Baden-Württemberg state election, as of 10 Apr 2026, values in per cent
PollsterPublishedGrüneCDUAfDSPDLinkeFDPOthers
Allensbach10 Apr 20263226225546
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen5 Mar 202628281885.55.57
INSA4 Mar 20262427209668
Infratest dimap26 Feb 202627281875.568.5
Our analysis

House effects: which pollster rates whom higher?

Since 10 April 2024, Infratest dimap has measured Grüne on average 2.5 points above the average of the other pollsters, INSA has measured Grüne on average 1.9 points below the average of the other pollsters, INSA has measured AfD on average 1.4 points above the average of the other pollsters.

Adjusted for these house effects, Grüne would stand at 27.6% instead of 27.8%. The current average is therefore shaped by which pollsters published most recently.

House effects by pollster since 10 April 2024: mean deviation from the rolling average of the other pollsters in percentage points
PollsterPollsGrüneCDUAfDSPDLinkeFDPØ abs.
INSA10-1.9-0.8+1.4+0.4+0.1+0.80.9
Infratest dimap7+2.5+0.1-0.8-0.9-0.3-1.41.0
Raw average27.8%27.3%19.5%7.3%5.5%5.4%
Adjusted for house effects27.6%(-0.2)27.4%(+0.1)19.4%(-0.1)7.4%(+0.1)5.6%(+0.1)5.5%(+0.1)

Positive: the pollster measures the party higher than the other pollsters' rolling 120-day average on the same day. Only pollsters with at least 3 polls since 10 April 2024.

Projected

Seat distribution in the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg

Under Sainte-Laguë, the 120 seats would split into 36 for Grüne, 36 for CDU, 25 for AfD, 9 for SPD, 7 for FDP, 7 for Linke. Regular size 120 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold 5 per cent.

Seat distribution Baden-Württemberg
Projected seat distribution based on the polling average
Grüne: 36 seatsCDU: 36 seatsAfD: 25 seatsSPD: 9 seatsFDP: 7 seatsLinke: 7 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • Grüne36
  • CDU36
  • AfD25
  • SPD9
  • FDP7
  • Linke7
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 10 Apr 2026
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Majorities

Which coalitions would have a majority?

All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.

Coalition calculator Baden-Württemberg
Seats based on the polling average, tap parties to test an alliance
Coalition calculator: tap the parties
Grüne + CDU
Grüne: 36 seatsCDU: 36 seatsAfD: 25 seatsSPD: 9 seatsFDP: 7 seatsLinke: 7 seats72/120
Majority, 12 seats above half
Seats based on the current polling average, 120 regular seats, majority from 61.
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 10 Apr 2026
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  • Grüne + CDUGovernment72 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD61 of 120
  • CDU + AfD61 of 120
Our analysis

How secure are the majorities?

Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.

Majority probabilities Baden-Württemberg
Share of simulations in which an alliance holds a majority

Majority in parliament

  • Grüne + CDUGovernmentover 99%
  • Grüne + AfD74%
  • CDU + AfD70%
  • Grüne + SPDunder 1%
  • CDU + SPDunder 1%
  • AfD + SPDunder 1%

Clearing the electoral threshold

  • Linke (±1.8)60%
  • FDP (±1.1)64%
  • SPD (±2.2)85%

Largest party

  • Grüne54%
  • CDU46%

3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 10 Apr 2026
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Trend

Polling trend since 16 May 2024

Polling trend Baden-Württemberg
Rolling average and individual polls, shares in percent
010203040Jun 24Aug 24Oct 24Dec 24Feb 25Apr 25Jun 25Aug 25Oct 25Dec 25Feb 26Apr 26GrüneCDUAfDSPDLinkeFDP
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 120 days. Period 16 May 2024 to 10 Apr 2026. Tap the tiles to hide parties.
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 10 Apr 2026
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Our analysis

Accuracy ahead of the election on 8 Mar 2026

Before the Baden-Württemberg state election on 8 Mar 2026, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen came closest to the result with an average error of 1.6 points per party, INSA was furthest away with 2.8 points. All pollsters underestimated Grüne (by 3.9 points on average) and overestimated SPD (by 2.5 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.

Deviation of the last polls before the election of 8 Mar 2026 from the result, in percentage points
PollsterPoll datedGrüneCDUAfDSPDFDPLinkeØ abs.
Result 8 Mar 202630.2%29.7%18.8%5.5%4.4%4.4%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen5 Mar 2026 (3 days before)-2.2-1.7-0.8+2.5+1.1+1.11.6
Infratest dimap26 Feb 2026 (10 days before)-3.2-1.7-0.8+1.5+1.6+1.11.7
INSA4 Mar 2026 (4 days before)-6.2-2.7+1.2+3.5+1.6+1.62.8

Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.

Archive

All polls for the Baden-Württemberg state election

75 polls since 9 March 2017. Pollsters: Allensbach, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, INSA, Infratest dimap, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Civey, Forsa.

The 40 latest polls for the Baden-Württemberg state election, values in per cent
PollsterPublishedGrüneCDUAfDSPDLinkeFDPOthers
Allensbach10 Apr 20263226225546
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen5 Mar 202628281885.55.57
INSA4 Mar 20262427209668
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen27 Feb 20262527199668
Infratest dimap26 Feb 202627281875.568.5
INSA23 Feb 202622282010764
INSA29 Jan 202621292010755
Infratest dimap22 Jan 20262329208758
INSA16 Oct 202517312011774
Infratest dimap16 Oct 202520292110755
Infratest dimap15 May 202520311910754
Institut Wahlkreisprognose12 May 202523262312.55.54.54
INSA9 May 202517311912863
INSA15 Feb 202520311813454
Infratest dimap12 Dec 202422331513–49
INSA7 Dec 202420341711363
INSA11 Oct 202418321813364
Infratest dimap10 Oct 202418341613–59
INSA15 Aug 202419311611375
INSA13 Jun 202419301512377
Infratest dimap16 May 202422321411–77
INSA21 Mar 202423301611373
Infratest dimap18 Jan 20242232189–79
Institut Wahlkreisprognose27 Oct 2023203022101.576.5
Infratest dimap27 Sep 202322292012–89
Institut Wahlkreisprognose24 Jul 202325.5242111276.5
Infratest dimap20 Jul 202324261913–711
INSA3 Apr 202328271213398
Infratest dimap23 Mar 202326271215–1010
Institut Wahlkreisprognose13 Mar 20232832131026.55.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose22 Dec 202228231515295.5
INSA2 Nov 2022262813133107
Infratest dimap27 Oct 202227261315397
Institut Wahlkreisprognose23 Oct 202227.5221615384.5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose16 Aug 202230.52412132.5108
INSA13 Jul 2022292610143117
Institut Wahlkreisprognose10 Jun 202230.520.511144137
Institut Wahlkreisprognose7 May 202227.520.510183147
Infratest dimap21 Apr 202228269153118
INSA5 Apr 2022252310193119

The 40 latest of 75 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.

Background

The Baden-Württemberg state election at a glance

At the last Baden-Württemberg state election on 8 March 2026, Grüne became the largest party with 30.2%, defending first place from 2021. The biggest move compared with 2021: AfD gained 9.1 points.

Baden-Württemberg is governed by Grüne and CDU. On the current polling average this alliance would win 72 of 120 seats and would keep its majority.

75 polls for the Baden-Württemberg state election have been published since 9 March 2017, 8 of them this year. Most come from INSA (27), Infratest dimap (27), Institut Wahlkreisprognose (12). Recently a new poll has appeared every 28 days on average.

The next Baden-Württemberg state election is expected in spring 2031. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 16 or over is eligible to vote.

  • Until 2021 there was only one vote; the state list was filled from the parties' best constituency results.
  • Compensatory seats regularly push the Landtag well above 120 seats; in 2021 it had 154.

Results: 8 Mar 2026 · 14 Mar 2021. Pollster accuracy.

Parliament
Landtag of Baden-Württemberg
Seats
120 (regular size)
Constituencies
70
Threshold
5 per cent
Seat allocation
Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
Votes
since 2026 two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
Term
5 years
Voting age
16 years
Last election
8 March 2026
Next election
expected spring 2031
Government
Grüne, CDU
State capital
Stuttgart
Map

Baden-Württemberg: largest party by district

Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.

Baden-Württemberg: largest party by district, 2025 federal election
Largest party by second votes per district and independent city
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Federal Returning Officer, © GeoBasis-DE / BKG 2025 · As of: 23 Feb 2025
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All districts and municipalities in Baden-Württemberg · Map of Germany

On the ground

Districts, cities and constituencies in Baden-Württemberg

Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.

Districts and independent cities

Alb-Donau-KreisBaden-BadenBiberachBöblingenBodenseekreisBreisgau-HochschwarzwaldCalwEmmendingenEnzkreisEsslingenFreiburg im BreisgauFreudenstadtGöppingenHeidelbergHeidenheimHeilbronnHeilbronnHohenlohekreisKarlsruheKarlsruheKonstanzLörrachLudwigsburgMain-Tauber-KreisMannheimNeckar-Odenwald-KreisOrtenaukreisOstalbkreisPforzheimRastattRavensburgRems-Murr-KreisReutlingenRhein-Neckar-KreisRottweilSchwäbisch HallSchwarzwald-Baar-KreisSigmaringenStuttgartTübingenTuttlingenUlmWaldshutZollernalbkreis

The largest cities

Constituencies at the 2025 federal election

Baden-Württemberg: constituency seats, 2025 federal election
Party with the most first votes per constituency, share in percent
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Federal Returning Officer, © GeoBasis-DE / BKG 2025 · As of: 23 Feb 2025
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All constituencies in Baden-Württemberg as a list · All districts and municipalities

Pollsters

Which pollsters survey the Baden-Württemberg state election and when they last did.

Election tickerNext electionSaarland207 daysLatest pollForsa, North Rhine-Westphalia23 Sep 2026CDU 29AfD 22Grüne 18Biggest moveSPD, Rhineland-Palatinate▼ −8,3Leading nationallyAfDfor 159 daysRun-offsLower Saxony local elections4 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%, preliminary

Table as CSV

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