INSA poll of 4 March 2026 for the Baden-Württemberg state election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 24 Feb 2026 to 3 Mar 2026
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU27.0%-1.0
- Grüne24.0%+2.0
- AfD20.0%±0
- SPD9.0%-1.0
- FDP6.0%±0
- Linke6.0%-1.0
- Others8.0%+4.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 23 Feb 2026.
In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 27.0%, followed by Grüne on 24.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 24 Feb 2026 to 3 Mar 2026, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 23 Feb 2026, Grüne gains 2.0 points, CDU loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 2.0 points lower and AfD 1.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Mar 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -2.0average 26.0
- AfD +1.5average 18.5
- SPD +1.0average 8.0
- CDU -0.5average 27.5
- Linke +0.2average 5.8
- FDP ±0average 6.0
Seat projection from this poll
120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CDU35
- Grüne31
- AfD26
- SPD12
- FDP8
- Linke8
- CDU + Grüne66 of 120
- CDU + AfD61 of 120
- Grüne + AfD + SPD69 of 120
- Grüne + AfD + FDP65 of 120
- Grüne + AfD + Linke65 of 120
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.