Single poll

INSA poll of 23 February 2026 for the Baden-Württemberg state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
17 to 23 Feb 2026
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU28.0%-1.0
  • Grüne22.0%+1.0
  • AfD20.0%±0
  • SPD10.0%±0
  • Linke7.0%±0
  • FDP6.0%+1.0
  • BSW3.0%±0
  • Others4.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 29 Jan 2026.

In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 28.0%, followed by Grüne on 22.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 17 to 23 Feb 2026, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 29 Jan 2026, CDU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has SPD 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Feb 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +2.0average 8.0
  • CDU -1.0average 29.0
  • Grüne -1.0average 23.0
  • FDP +1.0average 5.0
  • AfD ±0average 20.0
  • Linke ±0average 7.0
  • BSW ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 36 seatsGrüne: 28 seatsAfD: 26 seatsSPD: 13 seatsLinke: 9 seatsFDP: 8 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • CDU36
  • Grüne28
  • AfD26
  • SPD13
  • Linke9
  • FDP8
  • CDU + Grüne64 of 120
  • CDU + AfD62 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + SPD67 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + Linke63 of 120
  • Grüne + AfD + FDP62 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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