German federal election: latest polls
Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 45 days, as of 7 November 2026 (today). Next election: expected January to March 2029; see also the German federal election 2029 forecast.
AfD leads with 27.8%, 7.8 points ahead of CDU/CSU (20.0%). Biggest movement over 45 days: SPD +0.9 and Linke −0.8. Around the 5% threshold: FDP 3.9%.
How is the polling average calculated?
We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 45 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.
Why do pollsters differ?
Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.
Averaging the 10 latest polls for the federal election, AfD leads with 27.8%, followed by CDU/CSU on 20.0%.
- Lead at the top
- AfD 7.8 points ahead of CDU/CSU
- Around the 5% threshold
- FDP 3.9%
- Movement over 45 days
- no party moved by more than one point
- Two-party majorities
- AfD + CDU/CSU
- Current government
- CDU/CSU + SPD: 242 of 630 seats, no majority
- Basis
- 10 pollsters, latest poll 7 November 2026
These polls feed into the average
Each pollster's latest poll from the past 45 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.
| Party | Average 7 Nov 2026 | INSA 7 Nov 2026 | Infratest dimap 5 Nov 2026 | Forsa 3 Nov 2026 | Verian (Emnid) 23 Oct 2026 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 23 Oct 2026 | Allensbach 22 Oct 2026 | pollytix 20 Oct 2026 | YouGov 20 Oct 2026 | GMS 19 Oct 2026 | Ipsos 8 Oct 2026 | 2025 election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 27.8 | 29.0 | 27.0 | 26.0 | 28.0 | 26.0 | 27.0 | 29.0 | 28.0 | 30.0 | 28.0 | 20.8 |
| CDU/CSU | 20.0 | 19.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 19.0 | 20.0 | 28.5 |
| Grüne | 15.1 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 17.0 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 16.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 11.6 |
| SPD | 13.6 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 16.4 |
| Linke | 10.8 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 8.8 |
| FDP | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| BSW | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | – | 3.0 | – | – | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 |
| Others | 6.5 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 |
Values in percent, latest poll per pollster within the averaging window. Bold: highest value per party.
| Pollster | Published | AfD | CDU/CSU | Grüne | SPD | Linke | FDP | BSW | Others | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 7 Nov 2026 | 29 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 5 Nov 2026 | 27 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 7 | ||
| Forsa | 3 Nov 2026 | 26 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 4 | – | 8 | ||
| Verian (Emnid) | 23 Oct 2026 | 28 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 6 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 23 Oct 2026 | 26 | 23 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 3 | – | 10 | ||
| Allensbach | 22 Oct 2026 | 27 | 23 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 4 | – | 7 | ||
| pollytix | 20 Oct 2026 | 29 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 4 | ||
| YouGov | 20 Oct 2026 | 28 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 6 | ||
| GMS | 19 Oct 2026 | 30 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 7 | ||
| Ipsos | 8 Oct 2026 | 28 | 20 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Min – Max | 26–30 | 18–23 | 13–17 | 12–15 | 10–12 | 3–5 | 3–4 | 4–10 | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
House effects: which pollster rates whom higher?
Since 7 November 2025, Allensbach has measured CDU/CSU on average 1.9 points above the average of the other pollsters, pollytix has measured SPD on average 1.5 points above the average of the other pollsters, Forsa has measured Grüne on average 1.3 points above the average of the other pollsters.
Adjusted for these house effects, CDU/CSU would stand at 20.2% instead of 20.0%. The current average is therefore shaped by which pollsters published most recently.
| Pollster | Polls | AfD | CDU/CSU | Grüne | SPD | Linke | FDP | BSW | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 103 | +1.2 | -0.9 | -0.9 | +0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | +0.3 | 0.6 |
| Forsa | 50 | -0.3 | -0.7 | +1.3 | -0.8 | +0.5 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 0.6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 18 | ±0 | +1.0 | -0.2 | -0.4 | +0.4 | -0.9 | – | 0.5 |
| Verian (Emnid) | 13 | -0.6 | -0.3 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +0.3 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 0.4 |
| Infratest dimap | 12 | -0.5 | +0.5 | +0.6 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.5 | ±0 | 0.4 |
| Allensbach | 12 | -0.6 | +1.9 | -0.7 | +0.5 | -0.8 | +0.7 | – | 0.9 |
| YouGov | 12 | +0.6 | -1.2 | ±0 | +0.1 | -0.2 | +0.4 | +0.5 | 0.4 |
| Ipsos | 12 | +0.1 | -1.2 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +1.2 | +0.4 | -0.1 | 0.5 |
| pollytix | 7 | +0.3 | -1.0 | -1.0 | +1.5 | -0.2 | +0.7 | +0.9 | 0.8 |
| GMS | 7 | +0.9 | -0.3 | ±0 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 0.4 |
| Raw average | 27.8% | 20.0% | 15.1% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | ||
| Adjusted for house effects | 27.7%(-0.1) | 20.2%(+0.2) | 15.1% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 3.0%(-0.1) |
Positive: the pollster measures the party higher than the other pollsters' rolling 45-day average on the same day. Only pollsters with at least 4 polls since 7 November 2025.
Seat distribution in the Bundestag
Under Sainte-Laguë, the 630 seats would split into 201 for AfD, 144 for CDU/CSU, 109 for Grüne, 98 for SPD, 78 for Linke. FDP, BSW would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 630 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Five per cent threshold, waived for parties with at least three constituency seats
- AfD201
- CDU/CSU144
- Grüne109
- SPD98
- Linke78
AfD would be the largest group with 201 of 630 seats; a majority needs 316. FDP and BSW would miss the threshold and win no seats.
How is the seat distribution calculated?
Seats are allocated by the Sainte-Laguë/Schepers method among all parties above the 5% threshold (Fünf-Prozent-Hürde, Ausnahme bei mindestens drei Direktmandaten), based on the polling average. The parliament has 630 seats; a majority needs 316. Overhang or levelling seats and constituency effects are not modelled.
Which coalitions would have a majority?
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.
One two-party alliance has a majority: AfD + CDU/CSU. The current government (CDU/CSU and SPD) would lose its majority with 242 seats.
Which coalitions are shown?
All two- and three-party alliances with at least 316 of 630 seats. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. Tap parties in the calculator to test any other combination; exclusions can be set under Settings.
- CDU/CSU + SPDGovernment, no majority242 of 630
- AfD + CDU/CSU345 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD408 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke388 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke377 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke331 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke320 of 630
CDU/CSU + SPD last had a majority in March 2025; currently holding a majority: AfD + Grüne + SPD (throughout the period) and CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD (throughout the period).
How is the coalition timeline calculated?
For the end of each of the last 48 months the polling average is computed as it stood on that date: the latest poll from each pollster within the preceding 45 days, averaged without weighting. Seats are then allocated using the parliament's method and threshold. An alliance has a majority in a month if its seats add up to at least half plus one. The most recent month uses the current average.
Which alliances are shown?
The incumbent government, the alliances with a majority in the current average and the pairs of the four largest parties. A filled cell means an arithmetic majority in that month, a pale cell none. The bar says nothing about whether an alliance is politically feasible.
How secure are the majorities?
Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.
Majority in parliament
- CDU/CSU + SPDGovernmentunder 1%
- AfD + CDU/CSU91%
- AfD + Grüne + SPDover 99%
- AfD + Grüne + Linkeover 99%
- AfD + SPD + Linkeover 99%
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD95%
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke74%
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke53%
- AfD + Grüne29%
- AfD + SPD12%
- CDU/CSU + Grüneunder 1%
- Grüne + SPDunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- BSW (±1.3)7%
- FDP (±1)16%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
AfD, Grüne and SPD holds a majority in 100% of 3,000 simulations. Uncertain at the 5% threshold: BSW (7% above) and FDP (16% above).
How are the probabilities calculated?
We recompute the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied poll values. The variation per party combines the sampling error of the average with the historical error of polls before elections since 2017. The probability is the share of runs in which an alliance reaches 316 seats.
Polling trend: how the polls moved since 7 November 2025
Since 7 Nov 2025 Grüne +3.2 and AfD +2.0 gained, while CDU/CSU −5.2 and SPD −1.1 lost points.
How does the rolling average work?
Each point is one poll. The line is the average of all polls of the previous 45 days, one per pollster, so a single outlier moves it only slightly. Choose a period, an end month or the area view to explore the history back to 2017.
Accuracy ahead of the election on 23 Feb 2025
Before the federal election on 23 Feb 2025, YouGov came closest to the result with an average error of 0.6 points per party, Infratest dimap was furthest away with 1.7 points. All pollsters underestimated Linke (by 1.9 points on average) and overestimated Grüne (by 1.5 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.
| Pollster | Poll dated | CDU/CSU | AfD | SPD | Grüne | Linke | BSW | FDP | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 23 Feb 2025 | 28.5% | 20.8% | 16.4% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | ||
| YouGov | 21 Feb 2025 (2 days before) | +0.5 | -0.8 | -0.4 | +1.4 | -0.8 | ±0 | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| INSA | 22 Feb 2025 (1 day before) | +1.0 | +0.2 | -1.4 | +0.9 | -1.3 | ±0 | +0.2 | 0.7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 21 Feb 2025 (2 days before) | +1.0 | -0.3 | -1.9 | +0.4 | -0.8 | -0.5 | +0.2 | 0.7 |
| Ipsos | 21 Feb 2025 (2 days before) | +1.5 | +0.2 | -0.4 | +0.4 | -1.8 | -0.5 | +0.2 | 0.7 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 20 Feb 2025 (3 days before) | -0.5 | +0.2 | -0.4 | +2.4 | -0.8 | -0.5 | +0.2 | 0.7 |
| Forsa | 21 Feb 2025 (2 days before) | +0.5 | +0.2 | -1.4 | +1.4 | -0.8 | -2.0 | +0.7 | 1.0 |
| Allensbach | 21 Feb 2025 (2 days before) | +3.5 | -0.8 | -1.9 | +0.4 | -1.3 | -0.5 | +0.2 | 1.2 |
| pollytix | 12 Feb 2025 (11 days before) | +0.5 | -1.8 | +0.6 | +2.4 | -2.8 | ±0 | -0.3 | 1.2 |
| Civey | 20 Feb 2025 (3 days before) | +1.5 | +0.2 | -1.4 | +2.4 | -1.8 | -1.0 | +0.7 | 1.3 |
| GMS | 19 Feb 2025 (4 days before) | +2.5 | -0.8 | -1.4 | +1.4 | -2.8 | -1.0 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| Verian (Emnid) | 31 Jan 2025 (23 days before) | +1.5 | -0.8 | -1.4 | +2.4 | -4.8 | ±0 | -0.3 | 1.6 |
| Infratest dimap | 13 Feb 2025 (10 days before) | +3.5 | +0.2 | -2.4 | +2.4 | -2.8 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 1.7 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.
All polls for the Federal election
2698 polls since 18 January 2017. Pollsters: INSA, Infratest dimap, Forsa, Verian (Emnid), Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Allensbach, pollytix, YouGov, GMS, Ipsos, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Civey, Trend Research Hamburg.
| Pollster | Published | AfD | CDU/CSU | Grüne | SPD | Linke | FDP | BSW | Others | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 7 Nov 2026 | 29 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 5 Nov 2026 | 27 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 7 | ||
| INSA | 3 Nov 2026 | 28 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | ||
| Forsa | 3 Nov 2026 | 26 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 4 | – | 8 | ||
| INSA | 31 Oct 2026 | 29 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 4 | ||
| INSA | 27 Oct 2026 | 29.5 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 5.5 | ||
| Forsa | 27 Oct 2026 | 27 | 21 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 4 | – | 8 | ||
| INSA | 24 Oct 2026 | 30 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 6 | ||
| Verian (Emnid) | 23 Oct 2026 | 28 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 6 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 23 Oct 2026 | 26 | 23 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 3 | – | 10 | ||
| Allensbach | 22 Oct 2026 | 27 | 23 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 4 | – | 7 | ||
| pollytix | 20 Oct 2026 | 29 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 4 | ||
| Forsa | 20 Oct 2026 | 27 | 20 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 4 | – | 8 | ||
| INSA | 20 Oct 2026 | 30 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | ||
| YouGov | 20 Oct 2026 | 28 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 6 | ||
| GMS | 19 Oct 2026 | 30 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 7 | ||
| INSA | 17 Oct 2026 | 29 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 7 | ||
| INSA | 13 Oct 2026 | 30 | 18.5 | 14 | 13.5 | 10 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6 | ||
| Forsa | 13 Oct 2026 | 26 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 4 | – | 8 | ||
| INSA | 11 Oct 2026 | 30 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 7 | ||
| Ipsos | 8 Oct 2026 | 28 | 20 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 8 Oct 2026 | 28 | 21 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 3 | – | 8 | ||
| Forsa | 6 Oct 2026 | 26 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 4 | – | 9 | ||
| INSA | 5 Oct 2026 | 30.5 | 17.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | ||
| INSA | 3 Oct 2026 | 30 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 6 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 1 Oct 2026 | 27 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 4 | – | 9 | ||
| INSA | 29 Sep 2026 | 29.5 | 19 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 10 | 4 | 3.5 | 5 | ||
| Forsa | 29 Sep 2026 | 26 | 19 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 6 | ||
| INSA | 26 Sep 2026 | 29 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 6 | ||
| Verian (Emnid) | 25 Sep 2026 | 28 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 4 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 25 Sep 2026 | 28 | 21 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 3 | – | 9 | ||
| Allensbach | 24 Sep 2026 | 28 | 23 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 5 | – | 7 | ||
| INSA | 22 Sep 2026 | 29.5 | 19.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5.5 | ||
| Forsa | 22 Sep 2026 | 27 | 20 | 17 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | ||
| INSA | 20 Sep 2026 | 29 | 20 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 5 | ||
| pollytix | 16 Sep 2026 | 27 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 4 | ||
| INSA | 15 Sep 2026 | 29 | 19.5 | 14 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6.5 | ||
| Forsa | 15 Sep 2026 | 27 | 20 | 18 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 4 | ||
| YouGov | 15 Sep 2026 | 29 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 5 | ||
| GMS | 14 Sep 2026 | 30 | 20 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 6 | ||
| Min – Max | 26–30.5 | 17.5–23 | 13–18 | 11–15 | 10–12 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 4–10 | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
The 40 latest of 2698 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.
The federal election at a glance
At the last Federal election on 23 February 2025, CDU/CSU became the largest party with 28.5% and replaced SPD at the top. The biggest move compared with 2021: AfD gained 10.5 points.
Germany is governed by CDU/CSU and SPD. On the current polling average this alliance would win 242 of 630 seats, and would no longer have a majority.
2698 polls for the Federal election have been published since 18 January 2017, 211 of them this year. Most come from INSA (798), Forsa (504), Verian (Emnid) (386). Recently a new poll has appeared every 2 days on average.
The next Federal election is expected in January to March 2029. The term is 4 years, and anyone aged 18 or over is eligible to vote.
- Since the 2023 electoral reform the Bundestag has a fixed size of 630 seats with no overhang or compensatory seats; constituency winners only take their seat if it is covered by their party's second-vote result.
- The basic-mandate clause (three constituency seats) remains in force for now following the Federal Constitutional Court's 2024 ruling.
Results: 23 Feb 2025 · 26 Sep 2021 · 24 Sep 2017. Pollster accuracy.
- Parliament
- Bundestag
- Seats
- 630 (regular size)
- Constituencies
- 299
- Threshold
- 5 per cent
- Seat allocation
- Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
- Votes
- two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
- Term
- 4 years
- Voting age
- 18 years
- Last election
- 23 February 2025
- Next election
- expected January to March 2029
- Government
- CDU/CSU, SPD
2025 federal election results on the ground
All 299 constituencies with their directly elected seat and a comparison with 2021, plus every municipality and district with second votes and turnout, from the official data of the Federal Returning Officer.
All German federal elections since 1949: result, seats and turnout
There have been 21 federal elections since 1949. CDU/CSU was the largest party 18 times; most recently CDU/CSU led in 2025 with 28.5%. Turnout ranged from 70.8% (2009) to 91.1% (1972).
Shares in percent, seats in brackets. Parties without a seat in any election are counted under Others.
| Year | Turnout | Seats | CDU/CSU | AfD | SPD | Grüne | Linke/PDS | FDP | SSW | Bayernpartei | KPD/DKP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 82.5% | 630 | 28.5% (208) | 20.8% (152) | 16.4% (120) | 11.6% (85) | 8.8% (64) | 4.3% (0) | 0.2% (1) | 0.0% (0) | – | 4.4% |
| 2021 | 76.6% | 736 | 24.1% (197) | 10.3% (83) | 25.7% (206) | 14.8% (118) | 4.9% (39) | 11.5% (92) | 0.1% (1) | 0.1% (0) | 0.0% (0) | 7.7% |
| 2017 | 76.2% | 709 | 32.9% (246) | 12.6% (94) | 20.5% (153) | 8.9% (67) | 9.2% (69) | 10.7% (80) | – | 0.1% (0) | 0.0% (0) | 4.1% |
| 2013 | 71.5% | 631 | 41.5% (311) | 4.7% (0) | 25.7% (193) | 8.4% (63) | 8.6% (64) | 4.8% (0) | – | 0.1% (0) | – | 2.6% |
| 2009 | 70.8% | 622 | 33.8% (239) | – | 23.0% (146) | 10.7% (68) | 11.9% (76) | 14.6% (93) | – | 0.1% (0) | 0.0% (0) | 2.0% |
| 2005 | 77.7% | 614 | 35.2% (226) | – | 34.2% (222) | 8.1% (51) | 8.7% (54) | 9.8% (61) | – | 0.1% (0) | – | 1.7% |
| 2002 | 79.1% | 603 | 38.5% (248) | – | 38.5% (251) | 8.6% (55) | 4.0% (2) | 7.4% (47) | – | 0.0% (0) | – | 2.0% |
| 1998 | 82.2% | 669 | 35.1% (245) | – | 40.9% (298) | 6.7% (47) | 5.1% (36) | 6.2% (43) | – | 0.1% (0) | – | 3.7% |
| 1994 | 79.0% | 672 | 41.4% (294) | – | 36.4% (252) | 7.3% (49) | 4.4% (30) | 6.9% (47) | – | 0.1% (0) | – | 1.7% |
| 1990 | 77.8% | 662 | 43.8% (319) | – | 33.5% (239) | 5.1% (8) | 2.4% (17) | 11.0% (79) | – | 0.1% (0) | – | 1.7% |
| 1987 | 84.3% | 497 | 44.3% (223) | – | 37.0% (186) | 8.3% (42) | – | 9.1% (46) | – | 0.1% (0) | – | 0.6% |
| 1983 | 89.1% | 498 | 48.8% (244) | – | 38.2% (193) | 5.6% (27) | – | 7.0% (34) | – | – | 0.2% (0) | 0.1% |
| 1980 | 88.6% | 497 | 44.5% (226) | – | 42.9% (218) | 1.5% (0) | – | 10.6% (53) | – | – | 0.2% (0) | 0.1% |
| 1976 | 90.7% | 496 | 48.6% (243) | – | 42.6% (214) | – | – | 7.9% (39) | – | – | 0.3% (0) | 0.2% |
| 1972 | 91.1% | 496 | 44.9% (225) | – | 45.8% (230) | – | – | 8.4% (41) | – | – | 0.3% (0) | 0.1% |
| 1969 | 86.7% | 496 | 46.1% (242) | – | 42.7% (224) | – | – | 5.8% (30) | – | 0.2% (0) | – | 1.0% |
| 1965 | 86.8% | 496 | 47.6% (245) | – | 39.3% (202) | – | – | 9.5% (49) | – | – | – | 1.6% |
| 1961 | 87.7% | 499 | 45.3% (242) | – | 36.2% (190) | – | – | 12.8% (67) | 0.1% (0) | – | – | 4.9% |
| 1957 | 87.8% | 497 | 50.2% (270) | – | 31.8% (169) | – | – | 7.7% (41) | 0.1% (0) | – | – | 1.4% |
| 1953 | 86.0% | 487 | 45.2% (243) | – | 28.8% (151) | – | – | 9.5% (48) | 0.2% (0) | 1.7% (0) | 2.2% (0) | 1.6% |
| 1949 | 78.5% | 402 | 31.0% (139) | – | 29.2% (131) | – | – | 11.9% (52) | 0.3% (1) | 4.2% (17) | 5.7% (15) | 9.1% |
Source: Landeswahlleitungen und Bundeswahlleiterin, zusammengeführt über wahlrecht.de/ergebnisse; Hamburg 2025: Statistikamt Nord, as of 29 Sep 2026. Official seats including overhang and compensatory seats; predecessor parties merged (Linke/PDS, Grüne/Bündnis 90).
Who won the federal elections in Germany?
Largest party per election: 2025 CDU/CSU (28.5%), 2021 SPD (25.7%), 2017 CDU/CSU (32.9%), 2013 CDU/CSU (41.5%), 2009 CDU/CSU (33.8%), 2005 CDU/CSU (35.2%), 2002 CDU/CSU (38.5%), 1998 SPD (40.9%), 1994 CDU/CSU (41.4%), 1990 CDU/CSU (43.8%), 1987 CDU/CSU (44.3%), 1983 CDU/CSU (48.8%), 1980 CDU/CSU (44.5%), 1976 CDU/CSU (48.6%), 1972 SPD (45.8%), 1969 CDU/CSU (46.1%), 1965 CDU/CSU (47.6%), 1961 CDU/CSU (45.3%), 1957 CDU/CSU (50.2%), 1953 CDU/CSU (45.2%), 1949 CDU/CSU (31.0%).
Pollsters
Which pollsters survey the Federal election and when they last did.
- INSA24 Jan 2017
- Infratest dimap27 Jan 2017
- Forsa18 Jan 2017
- Verian (Emnid)22 Jan 2017
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen27 Jan 2017
- Allensbach22 Feb 2017
- pollytix5 Apr 2018
- YouGov9 May 2017
- GMS9 Feb 2017
- Ipsos29 Jan 2017
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose18 Aug 2021
- Civey24 Jan 2017
- Trend Research Hamburg10 Feb 2017