German federal election: latest polls
Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 45 days, as of 22 September 2026 (1 day ago). Next election: expected autumn 2029; see also the German federal election 2029 forecast.
- AfD27.9%+7.1
- CDU/CSU20.3%-8.2
- Grüne14.8%+3.2
- SPD12.7%-3.7
- Linke11.6%+2.8
- FDP4.6%+0.3
- BSW3.4%-1.6
- Others5.9%+1.3
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 23 Feb 2025.
Averaging the 10 latest polls for the federal election, AfD leads with 27.9%, followed by CDU/CSU on 20.3%.
- Lead at the topAfD 7.6 points ahead of CDU/CSU
- Around the 5% thresholdFDP 4.6%
- Movement over 45 daysCDU/CSU −1.3
- Two-party majoritiesAfD + CDU/CSU
- Current governmentCDU/CSU + SPD: 238 of 630 seats, no majority
- Basis10 pollsters, latest poll 22 September 2026
These polls feed into the average
Each pollster's latest poll from the past 45 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.
| Pollster | Published | AfD | CDU/CSU | Grüne | SPD | Linke | FDP | BSW | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 22 Sep 2026 | 29.5 | 19.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5.5 |
| Forsa | 22 Sep 2026 | 27 | 20 | 17 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| pollytix | 16 Sep 2026 | 27 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| YouGov | 15 Sep 2026 | 29 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| GMS | 14 Sep 2026 | 30 | 20 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 3 Sep 2026 | 27 | 21 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 4 | – | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2 Sep 2026 | 27 | 21 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Verian (Emnid) | 28 Aug 2026 | 28 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| Allensbach | 21 Aug 2026 | 27.5 | 22.5 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 6 | – | 7 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 20 Aug 2026 | 27 | 22 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 4 | – | 9 |
House effects: which pollster rates whom higher?
Since 22 September 2025, Allensbach has measured CDU/CSU on average 1.6 points above the average of the other pollsters, Ipsos has measured CDU/CSU on average 1.5 points below the average of the other pollsters, pollytix has measured SPD on average 1.5 points above the average of the other pollsters.
Adjusted for these house effects, CDU/CSU would stand at 20.5% instead of 20.3%. The current average is therefore shaped by which pollsters published most recently.
| Pollster | Polls | AfD | CDU/CSU | Grüne | SPD | Linke | FDP | BSW | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 103 | +1.1 | -0.8 | -0.8 | +0.2 | ±0 | -0.2 | +0.4 | 0.5 |
| Forsa | 51 | ±0 | -0.8 | +1.1 | -1.0 | +0.6 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17 | ±0 | +0.9 | -0.1 | -0.3 | +0.2 | -0.7 | – | 0.4 |
| YouGov | 12 | +0.7 | -0.9 | -0.1 | ±0 | -0.1 | +0.3 | +0.5 | 0.4 |
| Infratest dimap | 12 | -0.2 | +0.7 | +0.6 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| Ipsos | 12 | +0.1 | -1.5 | +0.6 | +0.2 | +1.2 | +0.5 | ±0 | 0.6 |
| Verian (Emnid) | 12 | -0.6 | -0.3 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +0.1 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 0.4 |
| Allensbach | 12 | -0.8 | +1.6 | -0.6 | +0.5 | -0.6 | +0.6 | -0.3 | 0.7 |
| GMS | 7 | +0.5 | -0.1 | ±0 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 0.3 |
| pollytix | 6 | +0.2 | -0.9 | -1.0 | +1.5 | -0.2 | +0.7 | +0.9 | 0.8 |
| Raw average | 27.9% | 20.3% | 14.8% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 4.6% | 3.4% | ||
| Adjusted for house effects | 27.8%(-0.1) | 20.5%(+0.2) | 14.7%(-0.1) | 12.6%(-0.1) | 11.5%(-0.1) | 4.6% | 3.3%(-0.1) |
Positive: the pollster measures the party higher than the other pollsters' rolling 45-day average on the same day. Only pollsters with at least 4 polls since 22 September 2025.
Seat distribution in the Bundestag
Under Sainte-Laguë, the 630 seats would split into 201 for AfD, 146 for CDU/CSU, 107 for Grüne, 92 for SPD, 84 for Linke. FDP, BSW would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 630 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Five per cent threshold, waived for parties with at least three constituency seats
Which coalitions would have a majority?
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.
- CDU/CSU + SPDGovernment, no majority238 of 630
- AfD + CDU/CSU347 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD400 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke392 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke377 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD345 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke337 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke322 of 630
How secure are the majorities?
Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.
Majority in parliament
- CDU/CSU + SPDGovernmentunder 1%
- AfD + CDU/CSU89%
- AfD + Grüne + SPDover 99%
- AfD + Grüne + Linkeover 99%
- AfD + SPD + Linke99%
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD85%
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke74%
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke46%
- AfD + Grüne21%
- AfD + SPD5%
- CDU/CSU + Grüneunder 1%
- Grüne + SPDunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- BSW (±1.3)11%
- FDP (±1)34%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
Polling trend since 23 September 2025
Accuracy ahead of the election on 23 Feb 2025
Before the federal election on 23 Feb 2025, YouGov came closest to the result with an average error of 0.6 points per party, Infratest dimap was furthest away with 1.7 points. All pollsters underestimated Linke (by 1.9 points on average) and overestimated Grüne (by 1.5 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.
| Pollster | Poll dated | CDU/CSU | AfD | SPD | Grüne | Linke | BSW | FDP | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 23 Feb 2025 | 28.5% | 20.8% | 16.4% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | ||
| YouGov | 21 Feb 2025 (2 days before) | +0.5 | -0.8 | -0.4 | +1.4 | -0.8 | ±0 | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| INSA | 22 Feb 2025 (1 day before) | +1.0 | +0.2 | -1.4 | +0.9 | -1.3 | ±0 | +0.2 | 0.7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 21 Feb 2025 (2 days before) | +1.0 | -0.3 | -1.9 | +0.4 | -0.8 | -0.5 | +0.2 | 0.7 |
| Ipsos | 21 Feb 2025 (2 days before) | +1.5 | +0.2 | -0.4 | +0.4 | -1.8 | -0.5 | +0.2 | 0.7 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 20 Feb 2025 (3 days before) | -0.5 | +0.2 | -0.4 | +2.4 | -0.8 | -0.5 | +0.2 | 0.7 |
| Forsa | 21 Feb 2025 (2 days before) | +0.5 | +0.2 | -1.4 | +1.4 | -0.8 | -2.0 | +0.7 | 1.0 |
| Allensbach | 21 Feb 2025 (2 days before) | +3.5 | -0.8 | -1.9 | +0.4 | -1.3 | -0.5 | +0.2 | 1.2 |
| pollytix | 12 Feb 2025 (11 days before) | +0.5 | -1.8 | +0.6 | +2.4 | -2.8 | ±0 | -0.3 | 1.2 |
| Civey | 20 Feb 2025 (3 days before) | +1.5 | +0.2 | -1.4 | +2.4 | -1.8 | -1.0 | +0.7 | 1.3 |
| GMS | 19 Feb 2025 (4 days before) | +2.5 | -0.8 | -1.4 | +1.4 | -2.8 | -1.0 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| Verian (Emnid) | 31 Jan 2025 (23 days before) | +1.5 | -0.8 | -1.4 | +2.4 | -4.8 | ±0 | -0.3 | 1.6 |
| Infratest dimap | 13 Feb 2025 (10 days before) | +3.5 | +0.2 | -2.4 | +2.4 | -2.8 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 1.7 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.
All polls for the Federal election
2666 polls since 18 January 2017. Pollsters: INSA, Forsa, pollytix, YouGov, GMS, Infratest dimap, Ipsos, Verian (Emnid), Allensbach, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Civey, Trend Research Hamburg.
| Pollster | Published | AfD | CDU/CSU | Grüne | SPD | Linke | FDP | BSW | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 22 Sep 2026 | 29.5 | 19.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5.5 |
| Forsa | 22 Sep 2026 | 27 | 20 | 17 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| INSA | 20 Sep 2026 | 29 | 20 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| pollytix | 16 Sep 2026 | 27 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| INSA | 15 Sep 2026 | 29 | 19.5 | 14 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6.5 |
| Forsa | 15 Sep 2026 | 27 | 20 | 18 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| YouGov | 15 Sep 2026 | 29 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| GMS | 14 Sep 2026 | 30 | 20 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| INSA | 12 Sep 2026 | 29 | 20 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| pollytix | 8 Sep 2026 | 29 | 20 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| INSA | 8 Sep 2026 | 29 | 19.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 4 | 6.5 |
| Forsa | 8 Sep 2026 | 28 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| INSA | 5 Sep 2026 | 28 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Infratest dimap | 3 Sep 2026 | 27 | 21 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 4 | – | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2 Sep 2026 | 27 | 21 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| INSA | 1 Sep 2026 | 29 | 20.5 | 13.5 | 12 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6.5 |
| Forsa | 1 Sep 2026 | 28 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 4 | – | 7 |
| INSA | 29 Aug 2026 | 29 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Verian (Emnid) | 28 Aug 2026 | 28 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| INSA | 25 Aug 2026 | 29 | 20.5 | 13.5 | 12 | 11 | 4.5 | 3 | 6.5 |
| Forsa | 25 Aug 2026 | 28 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 4 | – | 7 |
| INSA | 23 Aug 2026 | 29 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| pollytix | 21 Aug 2026 | 28 | 20 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Allensbach | 21 Aug 2026 | 27.5 | 22.5 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 6 | – | 7 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 20 Aug 2026 | 27 | 22 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 4 | – | 9 |
| YouGov | 18 Aug 2026 | 28 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| INSA | 18 Aug 2026 | 28.5 | 20.5 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Forsa | 18 Aug 2026 | 28 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 4 | – | 7 |
| INSA | 15 Aug 2026 | 28 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| INSA | 11 Aug 2026 | 28.5 | 20.5 | 13 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 6.5 |
| Forsa | 11 Aug 2026 | 28 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 4 | – | 7 |
| INSA | 8 Aug 2026 | 28 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 6 Aug 2026 | 28 | 21 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 4 | – | 9 |
| Ipsos | 6 Aug 2026 | 28 | 21 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| INSA | 4 Aug 2026 | 28 | 21 | 13.5 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 5.5 |
| Forsa | 4 Aug 2026 | 28 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 4 | – | 7 |
| INSA | 2 Aug 2026 | 28 | 21 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Verian (Emnid) | 31 Jul 2026 | 27 | 21 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 31 Jul 2026 | 28 | 23 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 4 | – | 8 |
| Forsa | 28 Jul 2026 | 27 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 4 | – | 7 |
The 40 latest of 2666 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.
The federal election at a glance
At the last Federal election on 23 February 2025, CDU/CSU became the largest party with 28.5% and replaced SPD at the top. The biggest move compared with 2021: AfD gained 10.5 points.
Germany is governed by CDU/CSU and SPD. On the current polling average this alliance would win 238 of 630 seats, and would no longer have a majority.
2666 polls for the Federal election have been published since 18 January 2017, 179 of them this year. Most come from INSA (785), Forsa (498), Verian (Emnid) (384). Recently a new poll has appeared every 1 days on average.
The next Federal election is expected in autumn 2029. The term is 4 years, and anyone aged 18 or over is eligible to vote.
- Since the 2023 electoral reform the Bundestag has a fixed size of 630 seats with no overhang or compensatory seats; constituency winners only take their seat if it is covered by their party's second-vote result.
- The basic-mandate clause (three constituency seats) remains in force for now following the Federal Constitutional Court's 2024 ruling.
Results: 23 Feb 2025 · 26 Sep 2021 · 24 Sep 2017. Pollster accuracy.
- Parliament
- Bundestag
- Seats
- 630 (regular size)
- Constituencies
- 299
- Threshold
- 5 per cent
- Seat allocation
- Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
- Votes
- two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
- Term
- 4 years
- Voting age
- 18 years
- Last election
- 23 February 2025
- Next election
- expected autumn 2029
- Government
- CDU/CSU, SPD
2025 federal election results on the ground
All 299 constituencies with their directly elected seat and a comparison with 2021, plus every municipality and district with second votes and turnout, from the official data of the Federal Returning Officer.
Pollsters
Which pollsters survey the Federal election and when they last did.
- INSA24 Jan 2017
- Forsa18 Jan 2017
- pollytix5 Apr 2018
- YouGov9 May 2017
- GMS9 Feb 2017
- Infratest dimap27 Jan 2017
- Ipsos29 Jan 2017
- Verian (Emnid)22 Jan 2017
- Allensbach22 Feb 2017
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen27 Jan 2017
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose18 Aug 2021
- Civey24 Jan 2017
- Trend Research Hamburg10 Feb 2017