Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 23 October 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 20 to 22 Oct 2026
- Respondents
- 1,225
- Method
- Telefon & Online
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 8 Oct 2026.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has AfD ahead on 26.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 23.0%. 1,225 people were surveyed from 20 to 22 Oct 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 8 Oct 2026, AfD loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU/CSU 3.4 points higher and AfD 2.2 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Oct 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU +3.4average 19.6
- AfD -2.2average 28.2
- Grüne -2.2average 15.2
- FDP -1.1average 4.1
- SPD +0.6average 13.4
- Linke +0.1average 10.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD188
- CDU/CSU167
- SPD101
- Grüne94
- Linke80
- AfD + CDU/CSU355 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne383 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke369 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke362 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne362 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke341 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.