Schleswig-Holstein state election 2027: polls, forecast and date
Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 180 days, as of 14 July 2026 (71 days ago). Next election: 18 April 2027; see also the Schleswig-Holstein state election 2027 forecast.
- CDU30.0%-13.4
- Grüne18.0%-0.3
- AfD16.5%+12.1
- SPD13.5%-2.5
- Linke6.5%+4.8
- SSW5.5%-0.2
- FDP5.0%-1.4
- Others5.0%+0.9
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 8 May 2022.
Averaging the 2 latest polls for the Schleswig-Holstein state election, CDU leads with 30.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%.
- Lead at the topCDU 12.0 points ahead of Grüne
- Around the 5% thresholdSSW 5.5% · FDP 5.0%
- Movement over 180 daysCDU −9.0 · Grüne +5.0 · AfD +2.5
- Two-party majoritiesnone, 13 three-party options
- Current governmentCDU + Grüne: 34 of 69 seats, no majority
- Basis2 pollsters, latest poll 14 July 2026
These polls feed into the average
Each pollster's latest poll from the past 180 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.
| Pollster | Published | CDU | Grüne | AfD | SPD | Linke | SSW | FDP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 14 Jul 2026 | 27 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| Infratest dimap | 16 Apr 2026 | 33 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
Seat distribution in the Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein
Under Sainte-Laguë, the 69 seats would split into 21 for CDU, 13 for Grüne, 12 for AfD, 10 for SPD, 5 for Linke, 4 for FDP, 4 for SSW. Regular size 69 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Five per cent threshold; the SSW is exempt as the party of the Danish minority
Which coalitions would have a majority?
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.
- CDU + GrüneGovernment, no majority34 of 69
- CDU + Grüne + AfD46 of 69
- CDU + Grüne + SPD44 of 69
- CDU + AfD + SPD43 of 69
- CDU + Grüne + Linke39 of 69
- CDU + Grüne + FDP38 of 69
- CDU + Grüne + SSW38 of 69
- CDU + AfD + Linke38 of 69
- CDU + AfD + FDP37 of 69
- CDU + AfD + SSW37 of 69
- CDU + SPD + Linke36 of 69
- CDU + SPD + FDP35 of 69
- CDU + SPD + SSW35 of 69
- Grüne + AfD + SPD35 of 69
How secure are the majorities?
Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.
Majority in parliament
- CDU + GrüneGovernment71%
- CDU + Grüne + AfDover 99%
- CDU + Grüne + SPDover 99%
- CDU + AfD + SPDover 99%
- CDU + Grüne + Linke99%
- CDU + Grüne + FDP93%
- CDU + Grüne + SSW99%
- CDU + AfD + Linke97%
- CDU + AfD + FDP85%
- CDU + AfD + SSW97%
- CDU + SPD + Linke83%
- CDU + SPD + FDP54%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- FDP (±1.1)50%
- Linke (±1.8)79%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
Polling trend since 22 January 2025
Accuracy ahead of the election on 8 May 2022
Before the Schleswig-Holstein state election on 8 May 2022, Institut Wahlkreisprognose came closest to the result with an average error of 1.3 points per party, INSA was furthest away with 2.8 points. All pollsters underestimated CDU (by 5.2 points on average) and overestimated SPD (by 2.9 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.
| Pollster | Poll dated | CDU | Grüne | SPD | FDP | SSW | AfD | Linke | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 8 May 2022 | 43.4% | 18.3% | 16.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.7% | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 May 2022 (2 days before) | -4.4 | -0.8 | +1.5 | +0.6 | -0.2 | +1.1 | +0.3 | 1.3 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 May 2022 (3 days before) | -5.4 | -0.3 | +2.0 | +1.6 | +0.3 | +1.6 | – | 1.9 |
| Civey | 5 May 2022 (3 days before) | -3.4 | -3.3 | +4.0 | +0.6 | -0.7 | +1.6 | +0.3 | 2.0 |
| Infratest dimap | 28 Apr 2022 (10 days before) | -5.4 | -2.3 | +3.0 | +2.6 | -0.7 | +0.6 | – | 2.4 |
| INSA | 3 May 2022 (5 days before) | -7.4 | -2.3 | +4.0 | +2.6 | -0.7 | +1.6 | +1.3 | 2.8 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.
All polls for the Schleswig-Holstein state election
43 polls since 16 March 2017. Pollsters: INSA, Infratest dimap, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Civey.
| Pollster | Published | CDU | Grüne | AfD | SPD | Linke | SSW | FDP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 14 Jul 2026 | 27 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| Infratest dimap | 16 Apr 2026 | 33 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| INSA | 22 Jan 2025 | 39 | 13 | 14 | 16 | – | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| INSA | 15 Nov 2023 | 40 | 16 | 12 | 15 | – | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 2 Oct 2023 | 32.5 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 1.5 | 9 | 5 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 27 Apr 2023 | 38 | 17 | 8 | 15 | – | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| INSA | 25 Apr 2023 | 39 | 17 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 2 Nov 2022 | 36 | 23 | 8 | 16 | – | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 23 May 2022 | 42 | 23.5 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 3.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 May 2022 | 39 | 17.5 | 5.5 | 17.5 | 2 | 5.5 | 7 | 6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 May 2022 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 18 | – | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| Civey | 5 May 2022 | 40 | 15 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| INSA | 3 May 2022 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Apr 2022 | 39 | 17.5 | 5 | 18.5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 29 Apr 2022 | 38 | 17 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 28 Apr 2022 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 19 | – | 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 23 Apr 2022 | 39.5 | 16 | 4.5 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 21 Apr 2022 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 20 | – | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 3 Apr 2022 | 37 | 17 | 4.5 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 6.5 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 31 Mar 2022 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 20 | – | 4 | 8 | 8 |
| INSA | 29 Mar 2022 | 28 | 16 | 6 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 11 Mar 2022 | 35 | 19.5 | 5 | 19.5 | 2.5 | 5 | 9 | 4.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 10 Mar 2022 | 33 | 20 | 6 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 20 Feb 2022 | 30 | 17 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| INSA | 2 Feb 2022 | 25 | 15 | 7 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 3 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 28 Jan 2022 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 25 | 2 | 5.5 | 8 | 5.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 20 Jan 2022 | 28 | 20 | 7 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 13 Dec 2021 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 29 | 2 | 4.5 | 12.5 | 4 |
| INSA | 24 Nov 2021 | 21 | 18 | 7 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 3 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 26 Oct 2021 | 23 | 22 | 3 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 3 |
| Infratest dimap | 28 May 2021 | 28 | 27 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 6 |
| INSA | 19 May 2021 | 25 | 27 | 6 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 2 |
| INSA | 25 Nov 2020 | 33 | 24 | 6 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| INSA | 28 Jan 2020 | 28 | 26 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
| INSA | 8 Feb 2019 | 30 | 22 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| Infratest dimap | 20 Apr 2018 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 4 May 2017 | 32 | 12 | 6 | 29 | 4.5 | 3 | 11 | 2.5 |
| INSA | 29 Apr 2017 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 2 |
| Infratest dimap | 27 Apr 2017 | 32 | 12 | 6 | 31 | 4.5 | 3 | 8.5 | 3 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 27 Apr 2017 | 32 | 12 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
The 40 latest of 43 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.
The Schleswig-Holstein state election at a glance
At the last Schleswig-Holstein state election on 8 May 2022, CDU became the largest party with 43.4%, defending first place from 2017. The biggest move compared with 2017: CDU gained 11.4 points.
Schleswig-Holstein is governed by CDU and Grüne. On the current polling average this alliance would win 34 of 69 seats, and would no longer have a majority.
43 polls for the Schleswig-Holstein state election have been published since 16 March 2017, 2 of them this year. Most come from INSA (13), Infratest dimap (13), Institut Wahlkreisprognose (12). Recently a new poll has appeared every 128 days on average.
The next Schleswig-Holstein state election is scheduled for 18 April 2027. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 16 or over is eligible to vote.
- The SSW, as the party of the Danish minority, is exempt from the electoral threshold.
- One constituency seat is likewise enough to enter the Landtag.
Results: 8 May 2022 · 7 May 2017. Pollster accuracy.
- Parliament
- Landtag of Schleswig-Holstein
- Seats
- 69 (regular size)
- Constituencies
- 35
- Threshold
- 5 per cent
- Seat allocation
- Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
- Votes
- two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
- Term
- 5 years
- Voting age
- 16 years
- Last election
- 8 May 2022
- Next election
- 18 April 2027
- Government
- CDU, Grüne
- State capital
- Kiel
Schleswig-Holstein: largest party by district
Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.
All districts and municipalities in Schleswig-Holstein · Map of Germany
Districts, cities and constituencies in Schleswig-Holstein
Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.
Districts and independent cities
The largest cities
- KielGrüne 23.1%
- LübeckCDU 21.9%
- FlensburgGrüne 20.6%
- NorderstedtCDU 27.2%
- NeumünsterCDU 25.3%
- ElmshornCDU 24.0%
- PinnebergCDU 26.5%
- AhrensburgCDU 27.7%
- WedelCDU 26.0%
- Henstedt-UlzburgCDU 30.7%
- ItzehoeCDU 24.3%
- GeesthachtCDU 25.4%
- ReinbekCDU 30.6%
- SchleswigCDU 23.0%
- RendsburgCDU 21.5%
- Bad OldesloeCDU 26.0%
Constituencies at the 2025 federal election
All constituencies in Schleswig-Holstein as a list · All districts and municipalities
Pollsters
Which pollsters survey the Schleswig-Holstein state election and when they last did.
- INSA29 Apr 2017
- Infratest dimap16 Mar 2017
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose26 Oct 2021
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen27 Apr 2017
- Civey5 May 2022