Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 2 November 2022 for the Schleswig-Holstein state election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
24 Oct 2022 to 2 Nov 2022
Respondents
942
Method
Online
  • CDU36.0%-6.0
  • Grüne23.0%-0.5
  • SPD16.0%+2.0
  • AfD8.0%+4.0
  • SSW6.0%±0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Others6.0%+2.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 23 May 2022.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 36.0%, followed by Grüne on 23.0%. 942 people were surveyed from 24 Oct 2022 to 2 Nov 2022, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 23 May 2022, CDU loses 6.0 points, AfD gains 4.0 points, SPD gains 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has Grüne 7.0 points higher and SPD 3.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Nov 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +7.0average 16.0
  • SPD -3.5average 19.5
  • FDP -3.0average 8.0
  • AfD +2.2average 5.8
  • CDU -2.0average 38.0
  • SSW +1.0average 5.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

69 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold; the SSW is exempt as the party of the Danish minority.

CDU: 26 seatsGrüne: 17 seatsSPD: 12 seatsAfD: 6 seatsFDP: 4 seatsSSW: 4 seatsMajority from 3569of 69 seats
  • CDU26
  • Grüne17
  • SPD12
  • AfD6
  • FDP4
  • SSW4
  • CDU + Grüne43 of 69
  • CDU + SPD38 of 69
  • CDU + AfD + FDP36 of 69
  • CDU + AfD + SSW36 of 69
  • Grüne + SPD + AfD35 of 69
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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