Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 2 October 2023 for the Schleswig-Holstein state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 24 Sep 2023 to 2 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU32.5%-3.5
- Grüne18.0%-5.0
- AfD15.0%+7.0
- SPD14.0%-2.0
- SSW9.0%+3.0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke1.5%
- Others5.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 2 Nov 2022.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 32.5%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 24 Sep 2023 to 2 Oct 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 2 Nov 2022, AfD gains 7.0 points, Grüne loses 5.0 points, CDU loses 3.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 7.5 points higher and CDU 6.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 180-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +7.5average 7.5
- CDU -6.0average 38.5
- FDP -3.0average 8.0
- SSW +2.0average 7.0
- SPD -1.5average 15.5
- Grüne +1.0average 17.0
- Linke -0.5average 2.0
Seat projection from this poll
69 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold; the SSW is exempt as the party of the Danish minority.
- CDU24
- Grüne13
- AfD11
- SPD10
- SSW7
- FDP4
- CDU + Grüne37 of 69
- CDU + AfD35 of 69
- CDU + SPD + SSW41 of 69
- CDU + SPD + FDP38 of 69
- CDU + SSW + FDP35 of 69
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.