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Election poll Austria

National Council election Austria: current election polls

Average of the latest poll from each pollster within the last 90 days, as of 15 September 2026, 5 pollsters. FPÖ leads with 37.4%. Next election: expected autumn 2029, plus the Austria election forecast 2029.

Next electionautumn 2029to the election forecastLast election 29 Sep 2024FPÖ 28.8%official result, Federal Ministry of the InteriorGovernment since 3 Mar 2025ÖVP + SPÖ + NEOS83 of 183 seats according to the polls, no majorityPolls, as of 15 Sep 2026FPÖ 37.4%leading in the average across all pollsters
Election poll Austria
Average of each pollster's latest poll, shares in percent
  • FPÖ37.4%+8.6
  • ÖVP20.8%-5.5
  • SPÖ16.4%-4.7
  • Grüne11.6%+3.4
  • NEOS7.2%-1.9
  • KPÖ4.2%+1.8
  • Others2.4%-1.6

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 4%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 29 Sep 2024.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 15 Sep 2026
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Basis

These polls feed into the average

The latest poll from each pollster within the last 90 days, averaged without weighting.

Polls in the average, Austria
PollsterPublishedFPÖÖVPSPÖGrüneNEOSKPÖ
Market-Lazarsfeld15 Sep 20263722161364
OGM10 Sep 20263821151374
IFDD17 Jul 20263720151375
INSA15 Jul 2026391918874
Unique Research18 Jun 20263622181194
Projection

Seat projection for the National Council

183 seats. Four per cent threshold nationwide, or one basic mandate in a regional constituency. Seats are allocated in three stages (regional constituencies, state constituencies, federal level); we simplify by calculating nationwide by d'Hondt, which comes close to the final result of the third stage.

Seat projection Austria
Projected seat distribution based on the polling average
FPÖ: 71 seatsÖVP: 39 seatsSPÖ: 31 seatsGrüne: 22 seatsNEOS: 13 seatsKPÖ: 7 seatsMajority from 92183of 183 seats
  • FPÖ71
  • ÖVP39
  • SPÖ31
  • Grüne22
  • NEOS13
  • KPÖ7
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 15 Sep 2026
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Majorities

Which coalitions would have a majority?

All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Whether an alliance is politically feasible is not something the arithmetic can tell.

Coalition calculator Austria
Seats based on the polling average, tap parties to test an alliance
Coalition calculator: tap the parties
ÖVP + SPÖ + NEOS
ÖVP: 39 seatsSPÖ: 31 seatsNEOS: 13 seatsFPÖ: 71 seatsGrüne: 22 seatsKPÖ: 7 seats83/183
9 seats short of a majority
Projected seat distribution with 183 seats, majority from 92.
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 15 Sep 2026
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  • ÖVP + SPÖ + NEOSGovernment, no majority83 of 183
  • FPÖ + ÖVP110 of 183
  • FPÖ + SPÖ102 of 183
  • FPÖ + Grüne93 of 183
  • ÖVP + SPÖ + Grüne92 of 183
Simulation

How safe are the majorities?

The seat distribution is recalculated 3,000 times with randomly varied polling figures. The spread per party follows from the sampling error and a flat systematic deviation of 1.5 points, because there is no accuracy history of our own for Austria yet.

Majority probabilities Austria
Share of simulations in which an alliance holds a majority

Majority in parliament

  • ÖVP + SPÖ + NEOSGovernment4%
  • FPÖ + ÖVPover 99%
  • FPÖ + SPÖover 99%
  • FPÖ + Grüne68%
  • ÖVP + SPÖ + Grüne61%
  • ÖVP + SPÖunder 1%
  • ÖVP + Grüneunder 1%
  • SPÖ + Grüneunder 1%

Clearing the electoral threshold

  • KPÖ (±1.5)55%
  • NEOS (±1.5)98%

3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 15 Sep 2026
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Trend

Polling trend since the National Council election 2024

Polling trend Austria
Rolling average and individual polls, shares in percent
01020304050Nov 24Jan 25Mar 25May 25Jul 25Sep 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26Sep 26FPÖÖVPSPÖGrüneNEOSKPÖ
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 90 days. Period 1 Oct 2024 to 15 Sep 2026. Tap the tiles to hide parties.
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikipedia authors (CC BY-SA 4.0) · As of: 15 Sep 2026
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Background

The National Council election in Austria at a glance

The National Council has 183 members and is elected for five years; citizens aged 16 and over are entitled to vote.

In the 2024 National Council election the FPÖ became the largest party for the first time; since March 2025 a three-party coalition of ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS has governed under Federal Chancellor Christian Stocker.

In Austria the election poll question is asked above all by Market-Lazarsfeld, IFDD, Unique Research, OGM, Spectra and INSA, mostly on behalf of newspapers and broadcasters.

Parliament
National Council
Seats
183
Threshold
4 per cent
Last election
29 September 2024
Next election
expected autumn 2029
Government
ÖVP, SPÖ, NEOS (Federal Chancellor Christian Stocker (ÖVP))

Result of the National Council election 2024

FPÖ 28.8%ÖVP 26.3%SPÖ 21.1%NEOS 9.1%Grüne 8.2%KPÖ 2.4%BIER 2.0%Others 2.0%

Source: Federal Ministry of the Interior, National Council election 2024.

Archive

All polls for the National Council election

103 polls since 1 October 2024. Pollsters: Market-Lazarsfeld (62), INSA (12), OGM (10), IFDD (10), Unique Research (4), Market (4), Spectra (1).

The 40 latest polls, Austria
PollsterPublishedFPÖÖVPSPÖGrüneNEOSKPÖ
Market-Lazarsfeld15 Sep 20263722161364
OGM10 Sep 20263821151374
Market-Lazarsfeld8 Sep 20263921141374
Market-Lazarsfeld1 Sep 20263921151274
Market-Lazarsfeld25 Aug 20263822151173
IFDD17 Jul 20263720151375
INSA15 Jul 2026391918874
Market-Lazarsfeld7 Jul 20263719161284
Unique Research18 Jun 20263622181194
Market-Lazarsfeld16 Jun 20263820181273
Market-Lazarsfeld9 Jun 20263818181283
Market-Lazarsfeld2 Jun 20263720171282
Market-Lazarsfeld26 May 20263821181083
OGM20 May 20263720161384
Market-Lazarsfeld19 May 20263721181183
Market-Lazarsfeld12 May 20263820181173
IFDD24 Apr 202627132617124
INSA16 Apr 20263819191074
Market-Lazarsfeld14 Apr 20263820181173
Market-Lazarsfeld7 Apr 20263718191174
Market-Lazarsfeld31 Mar 20263618191183
Unique Research26 Mar 20263522181194
Market-Lazarsfeld24 Mar 20263621181173
Market-Lazarsfeld17 Mar 2026372018974
INSA25 Feb 2026381919973
Market-Lazarsfeld24 Feb 20263622161093
Market-Lazarsfeld17 Feb 2026372017984
IFDD17 Feb 20263522181194
OGM15 Feb 202647.328.424.3–––
Market-Lazarsfeld10 Feb 2026362119975
Market-Lazarsfeld3 Feb 2026352418983
Market-Lazarsfeld14 Jan 20263521181093
INSA14 Jan 2026372020983
Market-Lazarsfeld7 Jan 20263619181194
IFDD5 Jan 20263620181194
Market-Lazarsfeld9 Dec 20253818181193
Market-Lazarsfeld18 Nov 20253819181192
Market-Lazarsfeld4 Nov 20253720181083
IFDD21 Oct 20253621171194
Market-Lazarsfeld14 Oct 20253821171174

The 40 latest of 103 polls.

Sources

Data and licence

Polls: Wikipedia authors, article "Next Austrian legislative election", licence CC BY-SA 4.0, retrieved on 24 Sep 2026 (revision 1375690138). Averages, seats, coalitions and probabilities are our own calculations by wahlergebnisse.io and are likewise licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0. Election result and government: Federal Ministry of the Interior, National Council election 2024.

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