European election: latest polls in Germany
Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, as of 8 June 2024 (882 days ago). Next election: expected June 2029; see also the European election 2029 forecast.
CDU/CSU leads with 30.1%, 14.6 points ahead of AfD (15.5%). Biggest movement over 120 days: AfD −7.5 and SPD +5.6.
How is the polling average calculated?
We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 120 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.
Why do pollsters differ?
Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.
Averaging the 7 latest polls for the European election, CDU/CSU leads with 30.1%, followed by AfD on 15.5%.
- Lead at the top
- CDU/CSU 14.6 points ahead of AfD
- Movement over 120 days
- AfD −7.5 · SPD +5.6 · CDU/CSU +2.1
- Basis
- 7 pollsters, latest poll 8 June 2024
These polls feed into the average
Each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.
| Party | Average 8 Jun 2024 | Institut Wahlkreisprognose 8 Jun 2024 | Ipsos 7 Jun 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 6 Jun 2024 | INSA 1 Jun 2024 | Infratest dimap 30 May 2024 | YouGov 24 May 2024 | Forsa 15 Mar 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDU/CSU | 30.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 34.0 |
| AfD | 15.5 | 15.5 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 16.0 | 14.0 | 20.0 | 15.0 |
| SPD | 14.6 | 12.5 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| Grüne | 14.1 | 13.5 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 15.0 | 14.0 |
| BSW | 6.4 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| FDP | 4.1 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| Linke | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| Freie Wähler | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | – | 3.0 | 3.0 | – | 3.0 |
| Others | 9.8 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 |
Values in percent, latest poll per pollster within the averaging window. Bold: highest value per party.
| Pollster | Published | CDU/CSU | AfD | SPD | Grüne | BSW | FDP | Linke | Freie Wähler | Others | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 8 Jun 2024 | 30 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 11.5 | ||
| Ipsos | 7 Jun 2024 | 30 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 Jun 2024 | 30 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | – | 11 | ||
| INSA | 1 Jun 2024 | 29 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 30 May 2024 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | ||
| YouGov | 24 May 2024 | 29 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 4 | – | 6 | ||
| Forsa | 15 Mar 2024 | 34 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | ||
| Min – Max | 29–34 | 14–20 | 12.5–16 | 13–15 | 4–7.5 | 3–5 | 2–4 | 2.5–3 | 6–12 | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
House effects: which pollster rates whom higher?
Since 9 June 2022, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has measured SPD on average 4.2 points below the average of the other pollsters, INSA has measured Grüne on average 3.3 points below the average of the other pollsters, INSA has measured AfD on average 1.8 points above the average of the other pollsters.
Adjusted for these house effects, SPD would stand at 15.1% instead of 14.6%, Grüne would stand at 14.3% instead of 14.1%, Freie Wähler would stand at 3.1% instead of 2.9%. The current average is therefore shaped by which pollsters published most recently.
| Pollster | Polls | CDU/CSU | AfD | SPD | Grüne | BSW | FDP | Linke | Freie Wähler | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 8 | -1.1 | +1.8 | +1.3 | -3.3 | +0.2 | +1.1 | +1.1 | -0.4 | 1.3 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 6 | +1.4 | -1.3 | -4.2 | +0.7 | +1.0 | -0.4 | -1.1 | -0.4 | 1.3 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 5 | -0.3 | -1.4 | -0.6 | +0.7 | -0.8 | -0.2 | +0.1 | – | 0.6 |
| Raw average | 30.1% | 15.5% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | ||
| Adjusted for house effects | 30.1% | 15.6%(+0.1) | 15.1%(+0.5) | 14.3%(+0.2) | 6.3%(-0.1) | 4.0%(-0.1) | 2.9% | 3.1%(+0.2) |
Positive: the pollster measures the party higher than the other pollsters' rolling 120-day average on the same day. Only pollsters with at least 3 polls since 9 June 2022.
Seat distribution in the European Parliament (German seats)
Under Sainte-Laguë, the 96 seats would split into 32 for CDU/CSU, 16 for SPD, 16 for AfD, 15 for Grüne, 7 for BSW, 4 for FDP, 3 for Linke, 3 for Freie Wähler. Regular size 96 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. No electoral threshold at the 2024 European election
- CDU/CSU32
- SPD16
- AfD16
- Grüne15
- BSW7
- FDP4
- Linke3
- Freie Wähler3
CDU/CSU would be the largest group with 32 of 96 seats; a majority needs 49.
How is the seat distribution calculated?
Seats are allocated by the Sainte-Laguë/Schepers method among all parties above the 0% threshold (Keine Sperrklausel bei der Europawahl 2024), based on the polling average. The parliament has 96 seats; a majority needs 49. Overhang or levelling seats and constituency effects are not modelled.
Polling trend: how the polls moved since 17 December 2022
Since 17 Dec 2022 CDU/CSU +3.2 gained, while AfD −5.0 and Freie Wähler −1.0 lost points.
How does the rolling average work?
Each point is one poll. The line is the average of all polls of the previous 120 days, one per pollster, so a single outlier moves it only slightly. Choose a period, an end month or the area view to explore the history back to 2017.
Accuracy ahead of the election on 9 Jun 2024
Before the European election on 9 Jun 2024, INSA came closest to the result with an average error of 0.6 points per party, YouGov was furthest away with 1.9 points. All pollsters overestimated Grüne (by 2.2 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.
| Pollster | Poll dated | CDU/CSU | AfD | SPD | Grüne | BSW | FDP | Linke | Freie Wähler | Volt | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 9 Jun 2024 | 30.0% | 15.9% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | ||
| INSA | 1 Jun 2024 (8 days before) | -1.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +0.8 | -1.2 | +0.3 | +0.3 | – | 0.6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 8 Jun 2024 (1 day before) | ±0 | -0.4 | -1.4 | +1.6 | +1.3 | -0.7 | -0.2 | -0.2 | – | 0.7 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 Jun 2024 (3 days before) | ±0 | -1.9 | +0.1 | +2.1 | +0.8 | -1.2 | +0.3 | – | +0.4 | 0.9 |
| Ipsos | 7 Jun 2024 (2 days before) | ±0 | -1.9 | +1.1 | +3.1 | +0.8 | -0.2 | +0.3 | +0.3 | – | 1.0 |
| Infratest dimap | 30 May 2024 (10 days before) | -1.0 | -1.9 | +1.1 | +2.1 | -0.2 | -1.2 | +0.3 | +0.3 | – | 1.0 |
| YouGov | 24 May 2024 (16 days before) | -1.0 | +4.1 | +2.1 | +3.1 | -0.2 | -1.2 | +1.3 | – | – | 1.9 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.
All polls for the European election
52 polls since 25 October 2018. Pollsters: Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Ipsos, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, INSA, Infratest dimap, YouGov, Forsa, Civey.
| Pollster | Published | CDU/CSU | AfD | SPD | Grüne | BSW | FDP | Linke | Freie Wähler | Others | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 8 Jun 2024 | 30 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 11.5 | ||
| Ipsos | 7 Jun 2024 | 30 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 Jun 2024 | 30 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | – | 11 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 3 Jun 2024 | 30.5 | 15 | 13.5 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2.5 | 7.5 | ||
| INSA | 1 Jun 2024 | 29 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 30 May 2024 | 30 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 4 | – | 13 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 30 May 2024 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | ||
| INSA | 25 May 2024 | 30 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | ||
| YouGov | 24 May 2024 | 29 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 4 | – | 6 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 22 May 2024 | 31 | 16 | 12.5 | 15 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 6.5 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17 May 2024 | 31 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 3 | – | 13 | ||
| INSA | 16 May 2024 | 29 | 17 | 15.5 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5.5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 2 May 2024 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 7 | 4 | – | – | 15 | ||
| INSA | 27 Apr 2024 | 29 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 26 Apr 2024 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 3 | – | 13 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 12 Apr 2024 | 30 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 3 | – | 12 | ||
| INSA | 10 Apr 2024 | 28.5 | 19 | 16.5 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | ||
| Ipsos | 20 Mar 2024 | 29 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | ||
| Forsa | 15 Mar 2024 | 34 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | ||
| INSA | 13 Mar 2024 | 28.5 | 20 | 16 | 11 | 5.5 | 6 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 29 Feb 2024 | 31.5 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 7.5 | 3 | 2 | 3.5 | 4.5 | ||
| INSA | 13 Feb 2024 | 27 | 22 | 16 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 3 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 21 Jan 2024 | 28 | 23 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 4.5 | 3 | 5 | 4.5 | ||
| INSA | 31 Jul 2023 | 26 | 23 | 19 | 15 | – | 7 | 5 | – | 6 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 17 Dec 2022 | 22 | 18.5 | 21 | 21 | – | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 26 Feb 2022 | 22 | 12.5 | 22.5 | 19.5 | – | 7.5 | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | ||
| Ipsos | 24 May 2019 | 27 | 12 | 17 | 18 | – | 6 | 7 | 2 | 7 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 23 May 2019 | 28 | 12 | 17.5 | 18.5 | – | 5.5 | 6.5 | – | 12 | ||
| INSA | 23 May 2019 | 28 | 12 | 15.5 | 18 | – | 8 | 7 | 3 | 3 | ||
| Civey | 22 May 2019 | 29.1 | 12.3 | 15.9 | 18.1 | – | 6.3 | 7.2 | – | 11.1 | ||
| Civey | 17 May 2019 | 29.6 | 11.4 | 17.2 | 19 | – | 7 | 6.5 | – | 9.3 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17 May 2019 | 30 | 12 | 17 | 19 | – | 5 | 7 | – | 10 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 16 May 2019 | 28 | 12 | 17 | 17 | – | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | ||
| INSA | 16 May 2019 | 28 | 12 | 15 | 18 | – | 7.5 | 8 | 2.5 | 4 | ||
| Civey | 14 May 2019 | 30.4 | 10.7 | 16.9 | 18.2 | – | 7.2 | 7.1 | – | 9.5 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 10 May 2019 | 32 | 12 | 16 | 19 | – | 6 | 6 | – | 9 | ||
| INSA | 9 May 2019 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 19 | – | 7 | 8 | 2.5 | 4 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 2 May 2019 | 29 | 10 | 19 | 19 | – | 7 | 7 | – | 9 | ||
| Civey | 29 Apr 2019 | 31.6 | 11.4 | 16.2 | 17.3 | – | 8.3 | 6.7 | – | 8.5 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 12 Apr 2019 | 32 | 10 | 18 | 19 | – | 7 | 6 | – | 8 | ||
| Min – Max | 22–34 | 10–23 | 9–22.5 | 10.5–21 | 4–7.5 | 3–8.3 | 2–8 | 2–5 | 1–15 | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
The 40 latest of 52 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.
The European election at a glance
At the last European election on 9 June 2024, CDU became the largest party with 23.7%, defending first place from 2019. The biggest move compared with 2019: Grüne lost 8.6 points.
52 polls for the European election have been published since 25 October 2018, 23 of them this year. Most come from INSA (16), Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (12), Institut Wahlkreisprognose (7). Recently a new poll has appeared every 3 days on average.
The next European election is expected in June 2029. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 16 or over is eligible to vote.
- Germany has had no electoral threshold for European elections since 2014; 14 parties won seats in 2024.
- From the 2029 election an EU-wide threshold of at least two per cent is due to apply.
Results: 9 Jun 2024 · 26 May 2019. Pollster accuracy.
- Parliament
- European Parliament (German seats)
- Seats
- 96 (regular size)
- Threshold
- none
- Seat allocation
- Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
- Votes
- one vote for a federal or state list
- Term
- 5 years
- Voting age
- 16 years
- Last election
- 9 June 2024
- Next election
- expected June 2029
Pollsters
Which pollsters survey the European election and when they last did.
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose26 Feb 2022
- Ipsos24 May 2019
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen22 Feb 2019
- INSA25 Oct 2018
- Infratest dimap14 Feb 2019
- YouGov24 May 2024
- Forsa14 Jan 2019
- Civey29 Apr 2019