European election 2029 forecast: who is ahead?
European election, expected June 2029. Polls as of 8 June 2024, 7 pollsters. CDU/CSU leads with 30.1%. Polls are not a prediction but a snapshot of today's mood. How far they typically still move before the election is shown further down.
If the european election were held today
Unweighted average of the latest poll from each pollster within the last 120 days, compared with the result of the last election on 9 Jun 2024.
- CDU/CSU30.1%
- AfD15.5%
- SPD14.6%
- Grüne14.1%
- BSW6.4%
- FDP4.1%
- Linke2.9%
- Freie Wähler2.9%
- Others9.8%
Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll.
All polls, house effects and details for the european election
What the European Parliament (German seats) would look like today
96 seats by Sainte-Laguë/Schepers, without overhang and levelling seats. No electoral threshold at the 2024 European election.
- CDU/CSU32
- SPD16
- AfD16
- Grüne15
- BSW7
- FDP4
- Linke3
- Freie Wähler3
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD64 of 96
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne63 of 96
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne63 of 96
- CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW55 of 96
- CDU/CSU + AfD + BSW55 of 96
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW54 of 96
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP52 of 96
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP52 of 96
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke51 of 96
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Freie Wähler51 of 96
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke51 of 96
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Freie Wähler51 of 96
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP51 of 96
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke50 of 96
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Freie Wähler50 of 96
How reliable is a forecast this far before the election?
For every election since 2017 we calculated the polling average as it stood 7 days to 2 years before polling day and compared it with the official result. Deviation per party is the average across all parties at an election; largest deviation is the party that was furthest off.
Two years ahead, polling averages at 25 elections were off by 4.5 points per party on average, and by 9.8 points for the party missed most. CDU/CSU's lead is larger than this range.
| Lead time | Elections | Deviation per party | Largest deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 38 | ± 1.6 points | ± 4.0 points |
| 1 month | 37 | ± 2.3 points | ± 5.8 points |
| 3 months | 36 | ± 2.9 points | ± 7.0 points |
| 6 months | 34 | ± 3.5 points | ± 8.0 points |
| 1 year | 31 | ± 3.9 points | ± 8.7 points |
| 2 yearsnow | 25 | ± 4.5 points | ± 9.8 points |
Only european elections since 2017
| Lead time | Elections | Deviation per party | Largest deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | 2 | ± 0.8 points | ± 2.4 points |
| 1 month | 2 | ± 1.2 points | ± 3.0 points |
| 3 months | 2 | ± 1.4 points | ± 3.5 points |
| 6 months | 2 | ± 3.2 points | ± 6.1 points |
| 1 year | 1 | ± 3.3 points | ± 9.1 points |
| 2 yearsnow | 1 | ± 2.8 points | ± 8.6 points |
What has shifted since the last election
Polling trend since 9 June 2024. The “Change” view shows gains and losses since the start of the period.
What this forecast can and cannot do
An election poll measures the mood at the time of fieldwork. A forecast in the strict sense only exists on election night at 6 pm, from the exit polls. Everything before that is a projection of the polls: we show what the current figures would mean, and how large the error of such projections has been in the past.
Lead candidates, coalition statements and issues can change before the 2029 european election. Shortly before the election, polls become more frequent and more accurate; this page updates automatically with every new poll.
Source of the polls: dawum.de (Open Database License). Averages, seats, probabilities and accuracy are our own calculations at wahlergebnisse.io.