Thuringia state election: latest polls and 2024 result
Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, as of 2 July 2026 (83 days ago). Next election: expected autumn 2029; see also the Thuringia state election 2029 forecast.
- AfD40.0%+7.2
- CDU22.0%-1.6
- Linke16.0%+2.9
- BSW7.0%-8.8
- SPD6.0%-0.1
- Grüne4.0%+0.8
- Others5.0%-0.4
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 1 Sep 2024.
Averaging the latest poll for the Thuringia state election, AfD leads with 40.0%, followed by CDU on 22.0%.
- Lead at the topAfD 18.0 points ahead of CDU
- Around the 5% thresholdSPD 6.0% · Grüne 4.0%
- Movement over 120 daysAfD +2.0 · CDU −2.0 · Linke +2.0
- Two-party majoritiesAfD + CDU · AfD + Linke · AfD + BSW · AfD + SPD
- Current governmentCDU + BSW + SPD: 34 of 88 seats, no majority
- Basis1 pollster, latest poll 2 July 2026
These polls feed into the average
Each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.
| Pollster | Published | AfD | CDU | Linke | BSW | SPD | Grüne | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 2 Jul 2026 | 40 | 22 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
Seat distribution in the Thuringian Landtag
Under Sainte-Laguë, the 88 seats would split into 39 for AfD, 21 for CDU, 15 for Linke, 7 for BSW, 6 for SPD. Grüne would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 88 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold 5 per cent.
Which coalitions would have a majority?
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.
- CDU + BSW + SPDGovernment, no majority34 of 88
- AfD + CDU60 of 88
- AfD + Linke54 of 88
- AfD + BSW46 of 88
- AfD + SPD45 of 88
How secure are the majorities?
Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.
Majority in parliament
- CDU + BSW + SPDGovernmentunder 1%
- AfD + CDUover 99%
- AfD + Linkeover 99%
- AfD + BSW55%
- AfD + SPD36%
- CDU + Linke1%
- CDU + BSWunder 1%
- Linke + BSWunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- Grüne (±1.9)29%
- SPD (±2.3)67%
- BSW (±1.5)90%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
Polling trend since 9 August 2024
Accuracy ahead of the election on 1 Sep 2024
Before the Thuringia state election on 1 Sep 2024, Infratest dimap came closest to the result with an average error of 1.0 points per party, INSA was furthest away with 1.8 points. All pollsters underestimated AfD (by 2.8 points on average) and overestimated BSW (by 2.1 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.
| Pollster | Poll dated | AfD | CDU | BSW | Linke | SPD | Grüne | FDP | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 1 Sep 2024 | 32.8% | 23.6% | 15.8% | 13.1% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | ||
| Infratest dimap | 22 Aug 2024 (10 days before) | -2.8 | -0.6 | +1.2 | -0.1 | +0.9 | -0.2 | – | 1.0 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 31 Aug 2024 (1 day before) | -1.8 | -1.1 | +1.7 | +0.9 | -1.1 | -0.7 | – | 1.2 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 29 Aug 2024 (3 days before) | -3.8 | -0.6 | +2.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | +0.8 | – | 1.3 |
| Forsa | 30 Aug 2024 (2 days before) | -2.8 | -1.6 | +1.2 | +0.9 | +0.9 | +0.8 | – | 1.4 |
| INSA | 24 Aug 2024 (8 days before) | -2.8 | -2.6 | +4.2 | +0.9 | -0.1 | -0.2 | +1.9 | 1.8 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.
All polls for the Thuringia state election
95 polls since 14 April 2017. Pollsters: INSA, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, Civey.
| Pollster | Published | AfD | CDU | Linke | BSW | SPD | Grüne | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 2 Jul 2026 | 40 | 22 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| INSA | 11 Apr 2026 | 39 | 24 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| INSA | 5 Feb 2026 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| INSA | 11 Dec 2025 | 39 | 24 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| INSA | 11 Sep 2025 | 37 | 25 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| INSA | 8 May 2025 | 35 | 24 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5 |
| INSA | 5 Feb 2025 | 35 | 25 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| INSA | 11 Dec 2024 | 34 | 25 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 4 |
| INSA | 7 Nov 2024 | 34 | 25 | 13 | 14 | 6 | – | 8 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 31 Aug 2024 | 31 | 22.5 | 14 | 17.5 | 5 | 2.5 | 7.5 |
| Forsa | 30 Aug 2024 | 30 | 22 | 14 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 29 Aug 2024 | 29 | 23 | 13 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| INSA | 24 Aug 2024 | 30 | 21 | 14 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 23 Aug 2024 | 30 | 23 | 14 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 22 Aug 2024 | 30 | 23 | 13 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| Forsa | 20 Aug 2024 | 30 | 21 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| INSA | 13 Aug 2024 | 30 | 21 | 16 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 12 Aug 2024 | 27.5 | 23 | 15.5 | 19 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 9 Aug 2024 | 30 | 21 | 15 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| INSA | 26 Jun 2024 | 29 | 22 | 14 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Infratest dimap | 18 Jun 2024 | 28 | 23 | 11 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| INSA | 1 May 2024 | 30 | 20 | 16 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| INSA | 19 Mar 2024 | 31 | 21 | 18 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Infratest dimap | 19 Mar 2024 | 29 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| INSA | 17 Jan 2024 | 31 | 20 | 15 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Forsa | 11 Jan 2024 | 36 | 20 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 26 Dec 2023 | 36.5 | 16 | 27 | – | 7 | 3 | 6.5 |
| INSA | 9 Nov 2023 | 34 | 22 | 20 | – | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| INSA | 16 Sep 2023 | 32 | 21 | 22 | – | 10 | 6 | 5 |
| INSA | 13 Jul 2023 | 32 | 20 | 22 | – | 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 5 Jul 2023 | 34 | 21 | 20 | – | 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 28 May 2023 | 30 | 17.5 | 25 | – | 10 | 4 | 7.5 |
| INSA | 27 Apr 2023 | 28 | 21 | 22 | – | 11 | 6 | 7 |
| INSA | 1 Feb 2023 | 26 | 22 | 25 | – | 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 11 Dec 2022 | 30 | 15 | 27 | – | 10 | 5 | 7 |
| INSA | 10 Nov 2022 | 25 | 21 | 23 | – | 11 | 7 | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 31 Oct 2022 | 28 | 17.5 | 24 | – | 12 | 6 | 6.5 |
| INSA | 21 Sep 2022 | 26 | 20 | 23 | – | 11 | 8 | 7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 7 Sep 2022 | 28 | 20.5 | 22 | – | 11 | 5.5 | 8 |
| Infratest dimap | 4 Aug 2022 | 25 | 22 | 22 | – | 11 | 7 | 8 |
The 40 latest of 95 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.
The Thuringia state election at a glance
At the last Thuringia state election on 1 September 2024, AfD became the largest party with 32.8% and replaced Linke at the top. The biggest move compared with 2019: Linke lost 17.9 points.
Thuringia is governed by CDU and BSW and SPD. On the current polling average this alliance would win 34 of 88 seats, and would no longer have a majority.
95 polls for the Thuringia state election have been published since 14 April 2017, 3 of them this year. Most come from INSA (54), Infratest dimap (17), Institut Wahlkreisprognose (10). Recently a new poll has appeared every 56 days on average.
The next Thuringia state election is expected in autumn 2029. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 18 or over is eligible to vote.
- In 2024 the AfD won more than a third of the seats, giving it a blocking minority on constitutional amendments for the first time.
Results: 1 Sep 2024 · 27 Oct 2019. Pollster accuracy.
- Parliament
- Thuringian Landtag
- Seats
- 88 (regular size)
- Constituencies
- 44
- Threshold
- 5 per cent
- Seat allocation
- Hare/Niemeyer
- Votes
- two votes: constituency vote and state vote
- Term
- 5 years
- Voting age
- 18 years
- Last election
- 1 September 2024
- Next election
- expected autumn 2029
- Government
- CDU, BSW, SPD
- State capital
- Erfurt
Thuringia: largest party by district
Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.
All districts and municipalities in Thuringia · Map of Germany
Districts, cities and constituencies in Thuringia
Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.
Districts and independent cities
The largest cities
- ErfurtAfD 27.2%
- JenaLinke 24.9%
- GeraAfD 40.5%
- WeimarAfD 24.2%
- GothaAfD 38.2%
- NordhausenAfD 38.1%
- EisenachAfD 35.8%
- IlmenauAfD 36.5%
- SuhlAfD 37.4%
- Mühlhausen/ThüringenAfD 38.4%
- Saalfeld/SaaleAfD 41.2%
- AltenburgAfD 42.2%
- ArnstadtAfD 40.6%
- RudolstadtAfD 39.8%
- SonnebergAfD 46.6%
- SondershausenAfD 41.4%
Constituencies at the 2025 federal election
All constituencies in Thuringia as a list · All districts and municipalities
Pollsters
Which pollsters survey the Thuringia state election and when they last did.
- INSA14 Apr 2017
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose14 Apr 2022
- Forsa7 Feb 2020
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen17 Oct 2019
- Infratest dimap22 Jun 2017
- Civey29 Aug 2018