Thuringia polling average

Thuringia state election: latest polls and 2024 result

Coat of arms of Thuringia

Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, as of 6 November 2026 (1 day ago). Next election: expected autumn 2029; see also the Thuringia state election 2029 forecast. Sunday question Thuringia: average, pollsters and trend.

Next electionautumn 2029expected, see the forecastLast election 1 Sep 2024AfD 32.8%official result, all partiesGovernmentCDU + BSW + SPD31 of 88 seats according to the polls, no majorityPolls, as of 6 Nov 2026AfD 40.0%leading in the average of all pollsters
Polling average Thuringia
Average of each pollster's latest poll, shares in percent

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 1 Sep 2024.

AfD leads with 40.0%, 22.0 points ahead of CDU (18.0%). Biggest movement over 120 days: CDU −4.0 and SPD +2.0. Around the 5% threshold: BSW 5.0% and Grüne 4.0%.

How is the polling average calculated?

We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 120 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.

Why do pollsters differ?

Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 6 Nov 2026
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Averaging the latest poll for the Thuringia state election, AfD leads with 40.0%, followed by CDU on 18.0%.

Lead at the top
AfD 22.0 points ahead of CDU
Around the 5% threshold
BSW 5.0% · Grüne 4.0%
Movement over 120 days
CDU −4.0 · SPD +2.0 · BSW −2.0
Two-party majorities
AfD + CDU · AfD + Linke · AfD + SPD · AfD + BSW
Current government
CDU + BSW + SPD: 31 of 88 seats, no majority
Basis
1 pollster, latest poll 6 November 2026
Basis

These polls feed into the average

Each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.

Sunday question Thuringia state election: values per pollster, average and last election result
PartyAverage
6 Nov 2026
INSA
6 Nov 2026
2024 election
AfD40.040.032.8
CDU18.018.023.6
Linke17.017.013.1
SPD8.08.06.1
BSW5.05.015.8
Grüne4.04.03.2
Thüringen.Gerecht2.02.0–
Others6.06.05.4

Values in percent, latest poll per pollster within the averaging window. Bold: highest value per party.

Polls in the average for the Thuringia state election, as of 6 Nov 2026, values in per cent
PollsterPublishedAfDCDULinkeSPDBSWGrüneThüringen.GerechtOthers
INSA6 Nov 202640181785426
Projected

Seat distribution in the Thuringian Landtag

Under Sainte-Laguë, the 88 seats would split into 40 for AfD, 18 for CDU, 17 for Linke, 8 for SPD, 5 for BSW. Grüne, Thüringen.Gerecht would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 88 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold 5 per cent.

Seat distribution Thuringia
Projected seat distribution based on the polling average
AfD: 40 seatsCDU: 18 seatsLinke: 17 seatsSPD: 8 seatsBSW: 5 seatsMajority from 4588of 88 seats
  • AfD40
  • CDU18
  • Linke17
  • SPD8
  • BSW5

AfD would be the largest group with 40 of 88 seats; a majority needs 45. Grüne and Thüringen.Gerecht would miss the threshold and win no seats.

How is the seat distribution calculated?

Seats are allocated by the Hare/Niemeyer method among all parties above the 5% threshold, based on the polling average. The parliament has 88 seats; a majority needs 45. Overhang or levelling seats and constituency effects are not modelled.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 6 Nov 2026
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Majorities

Which coalitions would have a majority?

All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.

Coalition calculator Thuringia
Seats based on the polling average, tap parties to test an alliance
Coalition calculator: tap the parties
CDU + SPD + BSW
CDU: 18 seatsSPD: 8 seatsBSW: 5 seatsAfD: 40 seatsLinke: 17 seats31/88
14 seats short of a majority
What if …
Majorities
Seats based on the current polling average, 88 regular seats, majority from 45.

4 two-party alliances have a majority: AfD + CDU, AfD + Linke, AfD + SPD and AfD + BSW. The current government (CDU, BSW and SPD) would lose its majority with 31 seats.

Which coalitions are shown?

All two- and three-party alliances with at least 45 of 88 seats. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. Tap parties in the calculator to test any other combination; exclusions can be set under Settings.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 6 Nov 2026
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  • CDU + BSW + SPDGovernment, no majority31 of 88
  • AfD + CDU58 of 88
  • AfD + Linke57 of 88
  • AfD + SPD48 of 88
  • AfD + BSW45 of 88
Coalition timeline Thuringia
Arithmetic majorities in the polling average at each month's end, last 48 months; majority from 45 of 88 seats
majorityno majority

CDU + BSW + SPD last had a majority in January 2025; currently holding a majority: AfD + CDU (for 44 consecutive months) and AfD + Linke (for 22 consecutive months).

How is the coalition timeline calculated?

For the end of each of the last 48 months the polling average is computed as it stood on that date: the latest poll from each pollster within the preceding 120 days, averaged without weighting. Seats are then allocated using the parliament's method and threshold. An alliance has a majority in a month if its seats add up to at least half plus one. The most recent month uses the current average.

Which alliances are shown?

The incumbent government, the alliances with a majority in the current average and the pairs of the four largest parties. A filled cell means an arithmetic majority in that month, a pale cell none. The bar says nothing about whether an alliance is politically feasible.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · own calculation · As of: 6 Nov 2026
Our analysis

How secure are the majorities?

Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.

Majority probabilities Thuringia
Share of simulations in which an alliance holds a majority

Majority in parliament

  • CDU + BSW + SPDGovernmentunder 1%
  • AfD + CDUover 99%
  • AfD + Linkeover 99%
  • AfD + SPD81%
  • AfD + BSW36%
  • CDU + Linkeunder 1%
  • CDU + SPDunder 1%
  • Linke + SPDunder 1%

Clearing the electoral threshold

  • Thüringen.Gerecht (±1.6)2%
  • Grüne (±1.9)29%
  • BSW (±1.4)51%
  • SPD (±2.3)90%

3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.

AfD and CDU holds a majority in 100% of 3,000 simulations. Uncertain at the 5% threshold: Grüne (29% above), BSW (51% above) and SPD (90% above).

How are the probabilities calculated?

We recompute the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied poll values. The variation per party combines the sampling error of the average with the historical error of polls before elections since 2017. The probability is the share of runs in which an alliance reaches 45 seats.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 6 Nov 2026
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Polling trend

Polling trend: how the polls moved since 7 November 2024

Polling trend Thuringia
Rolling average and individual polls, shares in percent
010203040Dec 24Feb 25Apr 25Jun 25Aug 25Oct 25Dec 25Feb 26Apr 26Jun 26Aug 26Oct 26AfDCDULinkeSPDBSWGrüneThüringen.Gerecht
Dots are individual polls, lines the rolling average over 120 days. Period 7 Nov 2024 to 6 Nov 2026. Tap the tiles to hide parties.

Since 7 Nov 2024 AfD +5.0 and Linke +4.2 gained, while BSW −7.2 and CDU −6.8 lost points.

How does the rolling average work?

Each point is one poll. The line is the average of all polls of the previous 120 days, one per pollster, so a single outlier moves it only slightly. Choose a period, an end month or the area view to explore the history back to 2017.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · As of: 6 Nov 2026
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Google searches

Search interest by party in Thuringia

Each party's share of Google searches for the eight parties in the state, last 90 days. For comparison the current poll rating, where the party is listed in the state's polls.

Search interest by party in Thuringia
Share of search interest across the eight parties in per cent, last 90 days
Search share and poll rating by party in Thuringia
PartySearch sharePolls
AfD56.2%40.0%
CDU/CSU16.7%18.0%
BSW8.7%5.0%
SPD8.0%8.0%
Linke7.1%17.0%
Grüne1.8%4.0%
FDP1.3%–
Freie Wähler0.0%–

In Thuringia, AfD accounts for 56.2% of the search interest across the eight parties, ahead of CDU/CSU on 16.7%. In the state's polls AfD stands at 40.0%.

How is the search share by state calculated?

Google Trends reports for each state how search interest is distributed across the compared parties over the last 90 days. Two groups of five are linked through the AfD as a common yardstick; CDU and CSU are added together.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Google Trends, search interest by topic · As of: 9 Nov 2026

Analysis for all states

Our analysis

Accuracy ahead of the election on 1 Sep 2024

Before the Thuringia state election on 1 Sep 2024, Infratest dimap came closest to the result with an average error of 1.0 points per party, INSA was furthest away with 1.8 points. All pollsters underestimated AfD (by 2.8 points on average) and overestimated BSW (by 2.1 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.

Deviation of the last polls before the election of 1 Sep 2024 from the result, in percentage points
PollsterPoll datedAfDCDUBSWLinkeSPDGrüneFDPØ abs.
Result 1 Sep 202432.8%23.6%15.8%13.1%6.1%3.2%1.1%
Infratest dimap22 Aug 2024 (10 days before)-2.8-0.6+1.2-0.1+0.9-0.2–1.0
Institut Wahlkreisprognose31 Aug 2024 (1 day before)-1.8-1.1+1.7+0.9-1.1-0.7–1.2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen29 Aug 2024 (3 days before)-3.8-0.6+2.2-0.1-0.1+0.8–1.3
Forsa30 Aug 2024 (2 days before)-2.8-1.6+1.2+0.9+0.9+0.8–1.4
INSA24 Aug 2024 (8 days before)-2.8-2.6+4.2+0.9-0.1-0.2+1.91.8

Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.

Archive

All polls for the Thuringia state election

96 polls since 14 April 2017. Pollsters: INSA, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, Civey.

The 40 latest polls for the Thuringia state election, values in per cent
PollsterPublishedAfDCDULinkeSPDBSWGrüneThüringen.GerechtOthers
INSA6 Nov 202640181785426
INSA2 Jul 2026402216674–5
INSA11 Apr 2026392414673–7
INSA5 Feb 2026382414773–7
INSA11 Dec 2025392414673–7
INSA11 Sep 2025372514793–5
INSA8 May 20253524148113–5
INSA5 Feb 20253525117134–5
INSA11 Dec 20243425127144–4
INSA7 Nov 2024342513614––8
Institut Wahlkreisprognose31 Aug 20243122.514517.52.5–7.5
Forsa30 Aug 20243022147174–6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen29 Aug 20242923136184–7
INSA24 Aug 20243021146203–3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen23 Aug 20243023146174–6
Infratest dimap22 Aug 20243023137173–7
Forsa20 Aug 20243021137184–7
INSA13 Aug 20243021166193–2
Institut Wahlkreisprognose12 Aug 202427.52315.54.5192.5–5.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen9 Aug 20243021157193–5
INSA26 Jun 20242922147204–2
Infratest dimap18 Jun 20242823117214–6
INSA1 May 20243020167165–4
INSA19 Mar 20243121186135–3
Infratest dimap19 Mar 20242920169155–6
INSA17 Jan 20243120156175–3
Forsa11 Jan 2024362017945–6
Institut Wahlkreisprognose26 Dec 202336.516277–3–6.5
INSA9 Nov 20233422209–4–7
INSA16 Sep 202332212210–6–5
INSA13 Jul 202332202210–5–7
Infratest dimap5 Jul 202334212010–5–6
Institut Wahlkreisprognose28 May 20233017.52510–4–7.5
INSA27 Apr 202328212211–6–7
INSA1 Feb 202326222510–6–4
Institut Wahlkreisprognose11 Dec 202230152710–5–7
INSA10 Nov 202225212311–7–5
Institut Wahlkreisprognose31 Oct 20222817.52412–6–6.5
INSA21 Sep 202226202311–8–7
Institut Wahlkreisprognose7 Sep 20222820.52211–5.5–8
Min – Max25–4015–2511–274.5–124–212.5–8–2–8

For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.

The 40 latest of 96 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.

Background

The Thuringia state election at a glance

At the last Thuringia state election on 1 September 2024, AfD became the largest party with 32.8% and replaced Linke at the top. The biggest move compared with 2019: Linke lost 17.9 points.

Thuringia is governed by CDU and BSW and SPD. On the current polling average this alliance would win 31 of 88 seats, and would no longer have a majority.

96 polls for the Thuringia state election have been published since 14 April 2017, 4 of them this year. Most come from INSA (55), Infratest dimap (17), Institut Wahlkreisprognose (10). Recently a new poll has appeared every 67 days on average.

The next Thuringia state election is expected in autumn 2029. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 18 or over is eligible to vote.

  • In 2024 the AfD won more than a third of the seats, giving it a blocking minority on constitutional amendments for the first time.

Results: 1 Sep 2024 · 27 Oct 2019. Pollster accuracy.

Parliament
Thuringian Landtag
Seats
88 (regular size)
Constituencies
44
Threshold
5 per cent
Seat allocation
Hare/Niemeyer
Votes
two votes: constituency vote and state vote
Term
5 years
Voting age
18 years
Last election
1 September 2024
Next election
expected autumn 2029
Government
CDU, BSW, SPD
State capital
Erfurt
2024 European election

2024 European election in Thuringia

In the European election on 9 June 2024, AfD came first in Thuringia with 30.7% of the vote. The bars show the European election shares, the small figures the gap to the 2025 federal election in the same area.

2024 European election in Thuringia
Vote shares in per cent, difference from the 2025 federal election in points

Change compared with 2025 federal election.

In the 2024 European election, AfD was the strongest party in Thuringia with 30.7%, −7.9 points compared with the 2025 federal election. Turnout was 61.9% (2025 federal election: 80.7%).

Why do the European and federal elections differ?

The European election has no electoral threshold, so small parties such as Volt, Die PARTEI or the animal-welfare party win more votes. Turnout is much lower, and the political mood shifted between June 2024 and February 2025. The single European-election vote is compared with the second vote of the federal election in the same area; parties that count as Others in 2025 get no difference.

Where do these figures come from?

Official final result of the 2024 European election from the Federal Returning Officer (kerg2.csv), votes per district and independent city.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Federal Returning Officer · As of: 9 Jun 2024
2024 European election and 2025 federal election in Thuringia: shares by party
PartyVotes 2024European election 2024Federal election 2025Difference
AfD320,03430.7%38.6%-7.9
CDU241,31623.2%18.6%+4.6
BSW156,58915.0%9.4%+5.6
SPD85,3058.2%8.8%-0.6
Linke59,5275.7%15.2%-9.5
Grüne43,7124.2%4.2%±0
FDP21,1112.0%2.8%-0.8
Die PARTEI20,4392.0%––
Freie Wähler18,9291.8%1.6%+0.2
Volt13,2561.3%0.5%+0.8
Tierschutzpartei10,2421.0%––
ÖDP2,9860.3%––
Others47,6784.6%––

Die PARTEI, Tierschutzpartei, ÖDP: counted as Others in the 2025 federal election, so no difference is shown.

Source: Federal Returning Officer, 2024 European election, results by state and district (kerg2.csv) (file), final result, retrieved 28 Sep 2026, Data licence Germany, attribution 2.0. Berlin East and Berlin West are aggregated from the boroughs as in the 2025 federal election. Comparison values: second votes of the 2025 federal election in the same area. Compiled by wahlergebnisse.io.

Profile

Thuringia in figures

Key facts about the place from official statistics and Wikidata, so the election result can be put in context. The figures describe, they do not explain.

Thuringia in figures
Official statistics and Wikidata, date per source below
Population
Population
2,078,946 (as of 2025-12-31)
Area
16,202.3 km²
Population density
128 inhabitants per km²
Under 19
16.3%
67 and older
24.0%
Foreign nationals (2022 census)
6.3%
Economy
Employees subject to social insurance (place of work)
782,969 (as of 2025-12-31)
Largest sectors
Manufacturing 21% · Health and social work 18% · Trade and vehicle repair 12%
Commuter balance
-51,175 (more out-commuters than in-commuters)
Largest companies headquartered here
AOK Rheinland-Pfalz/Saarland
3,600 employees
Bauerfeind
2,070 employees
TEAG Thüringer Energie AG
1,688 employees (2017)
Stahlwerk Thüringen
687 employees (2011)
Place
Elevation
266 m
First mention or foundation
1920
Twin towns
3

Thuringia has 2,078,946 inhabitants. The largest sector is Manufacturing with 21% of employees. The largest company headquartered in Thuringia is AOK Rheinland-Pfalz/Saarland with 3,600 employees.

Where do the profile figures come from?

Population, area and coordinates from the Federal Statistical Office's municipality register, employees, sectors and unemployment from the Federal Employment Agency, age structure from the 2022 census, coat of arms, website and companies from Wikidata and Wikimedia Commons. All sources are openly licensed and linked below the list.

Does the profile explain the election result?

No. It describes the place so readers can put figures in context. Whether sector, age or density relate to voting can only be tested across many places, not from a single result.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Wikidata (CC0 1.0) · Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Gemeindeverzeichnis GV-ISys (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0) · Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (© Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nutzung mit Quellenangabe) · Zensus 2022, Statistische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder, Regionaltabelle Demografie (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0) · As of: 2026-11-03

Sources: Wikidata (CC0 1.0) · Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Gemeindeverzeichnis GV-ISys (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0) · Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (© Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nutzung mit Quellenangabe) · Zensus 2022, Statistische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder, Regionaltabelle Demografie (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0)

Map

Thuringia: largest party by district

Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.

Thuringia: largest party by district, 2025 federal election
Largest party by second votes per district and independent city

Strongest party: AfD in 21 districts and Linke in 1 district of 22. Highest share: AfD with 46.8% in Hildburghausen.

What does the map show?

Each district is coloured by the party with the highest second-vote share at the 2025 federal election; the intensity follows the share. Tap or hover a district for the exact figure and turnout, click to open the district page with all municipalities.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Federal Returning Officer, © GeoBasis-DE / BKG 2025 · As of: 23 Feb 2025
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All districts and municipalities in Thuringia · Map of Germany

On the ground

Districts, cities and constituencies in Thuringia

Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.

Districts and independent cities

The largest cities

Constituencies at the 2025 federal election

Thuringia: constituency seats, 2025 federal election
Party with the most first votes per constituency, share in percent

Strongest party: AfD in 7 constituencies and Linke in 1 constituency of 8. Highest share: AfD with 44.8% in 193 Gera – Greiz – Altenburger Land.

What does the map show?

Each constituency is coloured by the party whose candidate won the direct seat at the 2025 federal election (first votes). Click a constituency for its results, candidates and the current nowcast.

Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: Federal Returning Officer, © GeoBasis-DE / BKG 2025 · As of: 23 Feb 2025
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All constituencies in Thuringia as a list · All districts and municipalities

Since 1990

All Thuringia state elections since 1990: result, seats and turnout

There have been 8 state elections in Thuringia since 1990. CDU was the largest party 6 times; most recently AfD led in 2024 with 32.8%. Turnout ranged from 52.7% (2014) to 74.8% (1994).

Shares in percent, seats in brackets. Parties without a seat in any election are counted under Others.

Election results Thuringia since the first election: share in percent, seats in brackets, turnout and seat total per election
YearTurnoutSeatsAfDCDUBSWLinke/PDSSPDGrüneFDPOthers
202473.6%8832.8% (32)23.6% (23)15.8% (15)13.1% (12)6.1% (6)3.2% (0)1.1% (0)2.6%
201964.9%9023.4% (22)21.8% (21)–31.0% (29)8.2% (8)5.2% (5)5.0% (5)4.5%
201452.7%9110.6% (11)33.5% (34)–28.2% (28)12.4% (12)5.7% (6)2.5% (0)0.7%
200956.2%88–31.2% (30)–27.4% (27)18.5% (18)6.2% (6)7.6% (7)0.4%
200453.8%88–43.0% (45)–26.1% (28)14.5% (15)4.5% (0)3.6% (0)2.2%
199959.9%88–51.0% (49)–21.4% (21)18.5% (18)1.9% (0)1.1% (0)1.8%
199474.8%88–42.6% (42)–16.6% (17)29.6% (29)4.5% (0)3.2% (0)1.0%
199071.7%89–45.4% (44)–9.7% (9)22.8% (21)6.5% (6)9.3% (9)2.3%

Source: Landeswahlleitungen und Bundeswahlleiterin, zusammengeführt über wahlrecht.de/ergebnisse; Hamburg 2025: Statistikamt Nord, as of 29 Sep 2026. Official seats including overhang and compensatory seats; predecessor parties merged (Linke/PDS, Grüne/Bündnis 90).

Who won the state elections in Thuringia?

Largest party per election: 2024 AfD (32.8%), 2019 Linke/PDS (31.0%), 2014 CDU (33.5%), 2009 CDU (31.2%), 2004 CDU (43.0%), 1999 CDU (51.0%), 1994 CDU (42.6%), 1990 CDU (45.4%).

Pollsters

Which pollsters survey the Thuringia state election and when they last did.

Table as CSV

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