Thuringia state election 2019: the result
In the Thuringia state election on 27 October 2019, Linke became the largest party with 31.0%, 7.6 points ahead of AfD (23.4%).
- Failed to clear the thresholdNPD (0.5%), Piraten (0.4%)
- Polls one week beforeoff by 1.8 points per party on average, Linke underestimated by 3.4
- Statusofficial final result
Result of the 2019 state election
Shares in percent. Parties below one percent are grouped as Others.
- Linke31.0%
- AfD23.4%
- CDU21.8%
- SPD8.2%
- Grüne5.2%
- FDP5.0%
- NPD0.5%
- Piraten0.4%
- Others4.5%
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%.
| Party | 2019 | Seats (projected) |
|---|---|---|
| Die Linke | 31.0% | 29 |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 23.4% | 22 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union | 21.8% | 20 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 8.2% | 7 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 5.2% | 5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 5.0% | 5 |
| Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 0.5% | – |
| Piratenpartei | 0.4% | – |
| Others | 4.5% | – |
Source: state returning officer, compiled via wahlrecht.de. Seats projected by Hare/Niemeyer on 88 regular seats, without overhang and compensatory seats. JSON · CSV
Seat distribution in the Thuringian Landtag after the 2019 result
88 regular seats by Hare/Niemeyer. Electoral threshold of 5%. The actual size of the parliament may differ due to overhang and compensatory seats.
- Linke29
- AfD22
- CDU20
- SPD7
- FDP5
- Grüne5
Which alliances had a majority after the 2019 election
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority.
- Linke + AfD51 of 88
- Linke + CDU49 of 88
- AfD + CDU + SPD49 of 88
- AfD + CDU + FDP47 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Grüne47 of 88
The polls in the last 30 days before the 2019 state election
5 polls between 17 Oct 2019 and 24 Oct 2019, each one available individually.
| Pollster | Published | Linke | AfD | CDU | SPD | Grüne | FDP | NPD | Piraten |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 24 Oct 2019 | 28 | 21 | 26 | 9 | 7 | 5 | – | – |
| INSA | 24 Oct 2019 | 28 | 24 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 5 | – | – |
| Civey | 23 Oct 2019 | 30.2 | 23.2 | 22.9 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 5 | – | – |
| Infratest dimap | 17 Oct 2019 | 29 | 24 | 24 | 8 | 7 | 4 | – | – |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17 Oct 2019 | 27 | 20 | 26 | 9 | 8 | 5 | – | – |
Last poll before the election: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 24 Oct 2019
Who came closest before the 2019 election?
Deviation of each pollster's last poll from the result, by party in points. Ranked by mean absolute deviation.
| Pollster | Poll dated | Linke | AfD | CDU | SPD | Grüne | FDP | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 27 Oct 2019 | 31.0% | 23.4% | 21.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | ||
| Civey | 23 Oct 2019 (4 days before) | -0.8 | -0.2 | +1.1 | ±0 | +2.2 | ±0 | 0.7 |
| Infratest dimap | 17 Oct 2019 (10 days before) | -2.0 | +0.6 | +2.2 | -0.2 | +1.8 | -1.0 | 1.3 |
| INSA | 24 Oct 2019 (3 days before) | -3.0 | +0.6 | +2.2 | +0.8 | +2.8 | ±0 | 1.6 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 24 Oct 2019 (3 days before) | -3.0 | -2.4 | +4.2 | +0.8 | +1.8 | ±0 | 2.0 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.