Wahlergebnisse
Nowcast

Constituency nowcast

What if Germany voted today? The current polling average (as of 7 Nov 2026, 10 polls) is applied to each constituency's 2025 result. It shows where direct seats are at risk, not who wins them.

Constituencies would flip
114
Close constituencies
133 (margin under 3.9 points)
Polls as of
7 Nov 2026
Polls in the average
10
Direct seats

Direct seats today and in 2025

How many constituencies each party would win on today's polling, compared with the 2025 federal election result.

Direct seats by party: nowcast and 2025 election
299 constituencies, proportional swing of the national polling average
Direct seats by party: nowcast and 2025 election
PartyNowcast2025 electionChange
AfD12946+83
CDU68144−76
Grüne3511+24
SPD3145−14
CSU3047−17
Linke66±0
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · Federal Returning Officer · own calculation · As of: 7 Nov 2026
Map

Who would win each constituency today?

Colour: party with the highest projected first-vote share. Pale areas are close, their margin lies within the usual polling error.

Projected constituency winners across all 299 seats
Nowcast from polling average and 2025 constituency results
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · Federal Returning Officer · own calculation · © GeoBasis-DE / BKG 2025 · As of: 7 Nov 2026
Flips

114 constituencies would change hands

Sorted by projected margin, closest flips first. The margin is the gap between first and second party in points.

114 constituencies would change hands
Constituency2025 winnerNowcastMargin
173 FuldaCDUAfD 32.2%0.2
234 WeidenCSUAfD 33.0%0.2
282 Lörrach – MüllheimCDUAfD 23.8%0.2
286 Schwarzwald-BaarCDUAfD 31.9%0.2
8 Segeberg – Stormarn-MitteCDUAfD 23.8%0.3
181 Frankfurt am Main ICDUSPD 21.6%0.3
275 MannheimCDUAfD 23.5%0.3
45 Gifhorn – PeineSPDAfD 29.7%0.4
40 Nienburg II – SchaumburgSPDAfD 28.1%0.6
46 Hameln-Pyrmont – HolzmindenSPDAfD 29.1%0.6
149 Märkischer Kreis IICDUAfD 29.7%0.7
276 Odenwald – TauberCDUAfD 32.2%0.7
296 SaarbrückenSPDAfD 28.1%0.7
53 Göttingen ICDUSPD 21.6%0.8
55 Bremen II – BremerhavenSPDAfD 25.7%0.8
211 AltöttingCSUAfD 32.7%0.8
6 Plön – NeumünsterCDUAfD 24.5%0.9
140 Herne – Bochum IISPDAfD 29.1%0.9
186 OdenwaldCDUAfD 25.9%0.9
284 OffenburgCDUAfD 28.3%0.9
29 Cuxhaven – Stade IICDUAfD 27.9%1.2
52 Goslar – Northeim – Göttingen IISPDAfD 27.6%1.3
292 BiberachCDUAfD 30.9%1.3
244 Nürnberg-SüdCSUAfD 27.3%1.5
207 Neustadt – SpeyerCDUAfD 27.5%1.8
11 LübeckSPDGrüne 25.1%1.9
187 BergstraßeCDUAfD 28.4%1.9
254 Neu-UlmCSUAfD 32.7%1.9
270 Aalen – HeidenheimCDUAfD 32.0%1.9
102 Solingen – Remscheid – Wuppertal IICDUAfD 25.9%2.0
116 Oberhausen – Wesel IIISPDAfD 28.7%2.0
144 Hamm – Unna IISPDAfD 29.9%2.1
183 Groß-GerauCDUSPD 25.0%2.1
44 Celle – UelzenCDUAfD 27.9%2.2
76 Berlin-ReinickendorfCDUAfD 24.2%2.4
172 GießenCDUAfD 26.3%2.4
203 MontabaurCDUAfD 28.8%2.4
230 StraubingCSUAfD 36.4%2.4
273 RastattCDUAfD 30.5%2.4
205 WormsCDUAfD 28.7%2.5
39 Stadt OsnabrückCDUSPD 24.2%2.6
113 Krefeld II – Wesel IICDUSPD 26.4%2.6
3 Steinburg – Dithmarschen SüdCDUAfD 28.2%2.8
138 Ennepe-Ruhr-Kreis IICDUSPD 26.1%2.9
98 Oberbergischer KreisCDUAfD 29.9%3.0
228 PassauCSUAfD 33.3%3.0
49 Salzgitter – WolfenbüttelSPDAfD 29.4%3.2
179 HanauCDUAfD 26.4%3.2
227 LandshutCSUAfD 27.7%3.2
196 NeuwiedCDUAfD 29.8%3.3
277 Rhein-NeckarCDUAfD 28.1%3.3
77 Berlin-Spandau – Charlottenburg NordSPDAfD 26.5%3.5
54 Bremen ISPDGrüne 24.4%3.6
106 Düsseldorf IICDUGrüne 23.9%3.6
147 Siegen-WittgensteinCDUAfD 28.5%3.6
251 Augsburg-StadtCSUGrüne 26.3%3.6
202 TrierCDUSPD 27.1%3.7
238 HofCSUAfD 33.4%3.7
28 Delmenhorst – Wesermarsch – Oldenburg-LandCDUAfD 26.4%3.8
124 Bottrop – Recklinghausen IIICDUAfD 29.4%3.8
298 St. WendelCDUAfD 29.1%3.8
121 Recklinghausen IICDUAfD 29.4%4.0
263 GöppingenCDUAfD 31.1%4.3
132 Herford – Minden-Lübbecke IICDUAfD 29.5%4.4
278 Bruchsal – SchwetzingenCDUAfD 30.3%4.4
61 Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming IISPDAfD 24.5%4.5
18 Hamburg-MitteSPDGrüne 27.0%5.0
280 CalwCDUAfD 33.3%5.1
204 MainzCDUGrüne 25.4%5.3
166 WaldeckCDUAfD 29.7%5.4
92 Köln ISPDGrüne 25.9%5.5
269 Backnang – Schwäbisch GmündCDUAfD 31.8%5.7
118 Essen IISPDAfD 31.0%5.8
226 DeggendorfCSUAfD 37.5%5.9
51 Helmstedt – WolfsburgCDUAfD 30.8%6.1
200 KreuznachCDUAfD 30.1%6.1
297 SaarlouisCDUAfD 30.6%6.1
217 München-OstCSUGrüne 32.2%6.2
299 HomburgSPDAfD 32.3%6.2
259 Stuttgart IICDUGrüne 27.5%6.4
229 Rottal-InnCSUAfD 31.5%6.5
268 Schwäbisch Hall – HohenloheCDUAfD 32.6%6.6
233 SchwandorfCSUAfD 37.6%6.8
243 Nürnberg-NordCSUGrüne 27.9%6.8
133 Minden-Lübbecke ICDUAfD 30.1%7.0
171 Lahn-DillCDUAfD 32.0%7.0
78 Berlin-Steglitz-ZehlendorfCDUGrüne 29.1%7.3
134 Lippe ICDUAfD 29.6%7.3
168 Werra-Meißner – Hersfeld-RotenburgCDUAfD 31.6%7.5
21 Hamburg-NordCDUGrüne 30.1%7.6
137 Hagen – Ennepe-Ruhr-Kreis ICDUAfD 29.8%7.7
115 Duisburg IISPDAfD 35.4%8.0
122 GelsenkirchenSPDAfD 34.5%8.4
95 BonnCDUGrüne 32.4%8.6
169 Schwalm-EderCDUAfD 33.1%8.9
216 München-NordCSUGrüne 32.0%8.9
267 HeilbronnCDUAfD 33.9%9.1
1 Flensburg – SchleswigCDUGrüne 28.8%9.2
206 Ludwigshafen/FrankenthalCDUAfD 31.7%9.3
295 Zollernalb – SigmaringenCDUAfD 36.3%9.3
185 DarmstadtCDUGrüne 28.0%9.4
174 Main-Kinzig – Wetterau II – SchottenCDUAfD 34.0%9.5
285 Rottweil – TuttlingenCDUAfD 37.3%9.6
290 TübingenCDUGrüne 31.7%9.7
279 PforzheimCDUAfD 37.7%10.4
209 PirmasensCDUAfD 35.1%10.7
208 KaiserslauternSPDAfD 35.0%11.2
79 Berlin-Charlottenburg-WilmersdorfCDUGrüne 31.1%11.5
219 München-West/MitteCSUGrüne 39.2%13.9
86 Aachen ICDUGrüne 37.4%14.1
182 Frankfurt am Main IICDUGrüne 33.9%14.9
274 HeidelbergCDUGrüne 35.2%15.2
258 Stuttgart ICDUGrüne 36.2%16.7
218 München-SüdCSUGrüne 38.7%17.4
Close

72 close constituencies

The margin here is under 3.9 points, the average distance between polls and results. These seats could go either way.

72 close constituencies
Constituency2025 winnerNowcastMargin
10 Herzogtum Lauenburg – Stormarn-SüdCDUCDU 23.6%0.1
210 SüdpfalzCDUCDU 28.6%0.1
176 Wetterau ICDUCDU 24.8%0.2
145 SoestCDUCDU 27.5%0.3
120 Recklinghausen ISPDSPD 28.6%0.4
255 Memmingen – UnterallgäuCSUCSU 32.0%0.4
283 Emmendingen – LahrCDUCDU 27.2%0.6
289 ReutlingenCDUCDU 27.7%0.6
170 MarburgSPDSPD 26.2%0.7
89 DürenCDUCDU 29.6%0.9
240 AnsbachCSUCSU 30.5%0.9
293 BodenseeCDUCDU 29.0%0.9
108 MönchengladbachCDUCDU 27.2%1.1
199 Mosel/Rhein-HunsrückCDUCDU 28.4%1.1
36 HarburgCDUCDU 24.6%1.2
48 HildesheimSPDSPD 26.7%1.2
112 Wesel ICDUCDU 25.9%1.2
43 Hannover-Land ICDUCDU 25.8%1.3
167 KasselSPDSPD 22.9%1.3
9 Ostholstein – Stormarn-NordCDUCDU 25.7%1.4
25 UnteremsCDUCDU 30.3%1.4
30 Stade I – Rotenburg IICDUCDU 26.8%1.5
237 CoburgCSUCSU 31.1%1.5
2 Nordfriesland – Dithmarschen NordCDUCDU 23.8%1.6
7 PinnebergCDUCDU 23.1%1.6
143 Unna ISPDSPD 27.6%1.6
184 OffenbachCDUCDU 22.3%1.6
241 ErlangenCSUCSU 25.9%1.6
242 FürthCSUCSU 27.2%1.6
266 Neckar-ZaberCDUCDU 28.6%1.6
37 Lüchow-Dannenberg – LüneburgSPDSPD 23.3%1.7
38 Osnabrück-LandCDUCDU 27.0%1.7
96 Rhein-Sieg-Kreis ICDUCDU 26.1%1.7
131 Bielefeld – Gütersloh IISPDSPD 22.7%1.7
288 WaldshutCDUCDU 27.6%1.8
33 Diepholz – Nienburg ICDUCDU 26.4%2.2
142 Dortmund IISPDSPD 27.4%2.2
178 WiesbadenCDUCDU 21.9%2.2
104 Mettmann IICDUCDU 26.4%2.3
264 WaiblingenCDUCDU 27.4%2.3
294 RavensburgCDUCDU 27.6%2.3
82 Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg – Prenzlauer Berg OstLinkeLinke 37.6%2.4
90 Rhein-Erft-Kreis ICDUCDU 25.9%2.4
4 Rendsburg-EckernfördeCDUCDU 24.0%2.5
91 Euskirchen – Rhein-Erft-Kreis IICDUCDU 28.4%2.5
34 Osterholz – VerdenCDUCDU 26.4%2.6
291 UlmCDUCDU 27.9%2.6
250 WürzburgCSUCSU 28.3%2.7
88 HeinsbergCDUCDU 30.9%2.8
235 BambergCSUCSU 28.5%2.8
249 SchweinfurtCSUCSU 32.0%2.8
262 NürtingenCDUCDU 27.3%2.8
272 Karlsruhe-LandCDUCDU 28.4%2.8
105 Düsseldorf ICDUCDU 26.6%2.9
177 Rheingau-Taunus – LimburgCDUCDU 27.2%2.9
265 LudwigsburgCDUCDU 26.1%3.0
107 Neuss ICDUCDU 27.1%3.1
135 Höxter – Gütersloh III – Lippe IICDUCDU 32.2%3.1
148 Olpe – Märkischer Kreis ICDUCDU 32.0%3.1
231 AmbergCSUCSU 33.0%3.1
232 RegensburgCSUCSU 27.9%3.1
253 Donau-RiesCSUCSU 33.9%3.1
23 Hamburg-Bergedorf – HarburgSPDSPD 26.7%3.2
26 Friesland – Wilhelmshaven – WittmundSPDSPD 30.8%3.2
74 Berlin-MitteGrüneGrüne 30.8%3.2
87 Aachen IICDUCDU 32.6%3.3
287 KonstanzCDUCDU 27.3%3.3
260 BöblingenCDUCDU 27.2%3.4
101 Wuppertal ISPDSPD 28.7%3.5
47 Hannover-Land IISPDSPD 27.8%3.6
198 KoblenzCDUCDU 26.5%3.8
256 OberallgäuCSUCSU 28.0%3.8
Method

How it is calculated

For each party we compute the factor “current national polling average divided by 2025 federal result”. The constituency's 2025 first- and second-vote shares are multiplied by this factor and normalised to 100 percent. CDU and CSU share the Union factor.

This is a proportional swing, not a model of individual candidates: personal profile, changed candidates or regional movements are not captured. That is why the section is called a nowcast, not a forecast.

Close means: the margin is under 3.9 points. That matches the mean error of polling averages one year before an election, see accuracy in the election forecast.

The average comes from national voting-intention polls (dawum.de, ODbL), constituency results from the Federal Returning Officer (dl-de/by-2-0). The projection is recalculated daily.

To the election forecast with seats and accuracy

Election tickerNext electionSaarland160 daysLatest pollINSA, Federal7 Nov 2026AfD 29CDU/CSU 19Grüne 15Biggest moveCDU, Hamburg▼ −6,0Leading nationallyAfDfor 204 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.