Wahlergebnissede
Nowcast

Constituency nowcast

What if Germany voted today? The current polling average (as of 25 Sep 2026, 10 polls) is applied to each constituency's 2025 result. It shows where direct seats are at risk, not who wins them.

Constituencies would flip
118
Close constituencies
126 (margin under 3.9 points)
Polls as of
25 Sep 2026
Polls in the average
10
Direct seats

Direct seats today and in 2025

How many constituencies each party would win on today's polling, compared with the 2025 federal election result.

Direct seats by party: nowcast and 2025 election
299 constituencies, proportional swing of the national polling average
Direct seats by party: nowcast and 2025 election
PartyNowcast2025 electionChange
AfD13446+88
CDU69144−75
Grüne3611+25
CSU3047−17
SPD2445−21
Linke66±0
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · Federal Returning Officer · own calculation · As of: 25 Sep 2026
Map

Who would win each constituency today?

Colour: party with the highest projected first-vote share. Pale areas are close, their margin lies within the usual polling error.

Projected constituency winners across all 299 seats
Nowcast from polling average and 2025 constituency results
Wahlergebnisse.io© 2026Source: dawum.de (ODbL) · Federal Returning Officer · own calculation · © GeoBasis-DE / BKG 2025 · As of: 25 Sep 2026
Flips

118 constituencies would change hands

Sorted by projected margin, closest flips first. The margin is the gap between first and second party in points.

118 constituencies would change hands
Constituency2025 winnerNowcastMargin
173 FuldaCDUAfD 32.3%0.1
234 WeidenCSUAfD 33.1%0.1
8 Segeberg – Stormarn-MitteCDUAfD 24.0%0.2
167 KasselSPDAfD 21.8%0.2
282 Lörrach – MüllheimCDUAfD 24.0%0.2
286 Schwarzwald-BaarCDUAfD 32.1%0.2
143 Unna ISPDAfD 26.4%0.3
183 Groß-GerauCDUSPD 23.5%0.4
149 Märkischer Kreis IICDUAfD 29.9%0.6
211 AltöttingCSUAfD 32.7%0.6
276 Odenwald – TauberCDUAfD 32.3%0.6
48 HildesheimSPDAfD 25.9%0.7
284 OffenburgCDUAfD 28.3%0.7
6 Plön – NeumünsterCDUAfD 24.8%0.8
113 Krefeld II – Wesel IICDUSPD 24.9%0.8
181 Frankfurt am Main ICDUGrüne 21.0%0.8
186 OdenwaldCDUAfD 26.1%0.8
39 Stadt OsnabrückCDUSPD 22.8%0.9
275 MannheimCDUAfD 23.7%0.9
138 Ennepe-Ruhr-Kreis IICDUSPD 24.6%1.0
170 MarburgSPDAfD 25.8%1.1
292 BiberachCDUAfD 31.0%1.1
244 Nürnberg-SüdCSUAfD 27.5%1.4
120 Recklinghausen ISPDAfD 28.6%1.5
207 Neustadt – SpeyerCDUAfD 27.7%1.7
187 BergstraßeCDUAfD 28.6%1.8
202 TrierCDUSPD 25.5%1.8
254 Neu-UlmCSUAfD 32.8%1.8
270 Aalen – HeidenheimCDUAfD 32.1%1.8
102 Solingen – Remscheid – Wuppertal IICDUAfD 26.2%2.0
44 Celle – UelzenCDUAfD 28.2%2.2
76 Berlin-ReinickendorfCDUAfD 24.3%2.3
230 StraubingCSUAfD 36.5%2.3
273 RastattCDUAfD 30.6%2.3
203 MontabaurCDUAfD 29.1%2.4
45 Gifhorn – PeineSPDAfD 30.2%2.5
205 WormsCDUAfD 29.0%2.5
40 Nienburg II – SchaumburgSPDAfD 28.5%2.6
46 Hameln-Pyrmont – HolzmindenSPDAfD 29.5%2.6
55 Bremen II – BremerhavenSPDAfD 26.0%2.6
296 SaarbrückenSPDAfD 28.4%2.6
3 Steinburg – Dithmarschen SüdCDUAfD 28.4%2.7
228 PassauCSUAfD 33.4%2.8
11 LübeckSPDGrüne 24.8%2.9
106 Düsseldorf IICDUGrüne 23.5%2.9
140 Herne – Bochum IISPDAfD 29.5%2.9
98 Oberbergischer KreisCDUAfD 30.1%3.0
52 Goslar – Northeim – Göttingen IISPDAfD 27.9%3.1
179 HanauCDUAfD 26.6%3.1
227 LandshutCSUAfD 27.8%3.1
251 Augsburg-StadtCSUGrüne 25.9%3.1
277 Rhein-NeckarCDUAfD 28.2%3.1
29 Cuxhaven – Stade IICDUAfD 28.3%3.2
196 NeuwiedCDUAfD 30.0%3.2
147 Siegen-WittgensteinCDUAfD 28.8%3.6
238 HofCSUAfD 33.6%3.6
298 St. WendelCDUAfD 29.4%3.8
116 Oberhausen – Wesel IIISPDAfD 29.1%4.0
144 Hamm – Unna IISPDAfD 30.3%4.1
172 GießenCDUAfD 26.6%4.1
263 GöppingenCDUAfD 31.2%4.2
278 Bruchsal – SchwetzingenCDUAfD 30.5%4.4
54 Bremen ISPDGrüne 24.0%4.5
61 Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming IISPDAfD 24.6%5.0
280 CalwCDUAfD 33.4%5.0
49 Salzgitter – WolfenbüttelSPDAfD 29.8%5.1
77 Berlin-Spandau – Charlottenburg NordSPDAfD 26.7%5.1
28 Delmenhorst – Wesermarsch – Oldenburg-LandCDUAfD 26.6%5.2
204 MainzCDUGrüne 25.0%5.2
217 München-OstCSUGrüne 31.7%5.4
124 Bottrop – Recklinghausen IIICDUAfD 29.7%5.6
269 Backnang – Schwäbisch GmündCDUAfD 32.0%5.6
259 Stuttgart IICDUGrüne 27.0%5.7
18 Hamburg-MitteSPDGrüne 26.5%5.8
121 Recklinghausen IICDUAfD 29.8%5.8
226 DeggendorfCSUAfD 37.6%5.8
200 KreuznachCDUAfD 30.3%6.0
243 Nürnberg-NordCSUGrüne 27.5%6.2
92 Köln ISPDGrüne 25.5%6.3
132 Herford – Minden-Lübbecke IICDUAfD 29.9%6.3
229 Rottal-InnCSUAfD 31.6%6.4
78 Berlin-Steglitz-ZehlendorfCDUGrüne 28.7%6.6
268 Schwäbisch Hall – HohenloheCDUAfD 32.8%6.6
233 SchwandorfCSUAfD 37.8%6.7
133 Minden-Lübbecke ICDUAfD 30.4%6.9
166 WaldeckCDUAfD 30.0%7.0
171 Lahn-DillCDUAfD 32.3%7.0
297 SaarlouisCDUAfD 30.9%7.2
134 Lippe ICDUAfD 29.9%7.3
118 Essen IISPDAfD 31.3%7.6
51 Helmstedt – WolfsburgCDUAfD 31.1%7.8
95 BonnCDUGrüne 32.0%7.8
168 Werra-Meißner – Hersfeld-RotenburgCDUAfD 32.0%7.9
299 HomburgSPDAfD 32.7%8.1
216 München-NordCSUGrüne 31.6%8.2
1 Flensburg – SchleswigCDUGrüne 28.4%8.6
21 Hamburg-NordCDUGrüne 29.8%8.6
137 Hagen – Ennepe-Ruhr-Kreis ICDUAfD 30.0%8.7
185 DarmstadtCDUGrüne 27.6%8.8
267 HeilbronnCDUAfD 34.0%9.0
290 TübingenCDUGrüne 31.2%9.0
295 Zollernalb – SigmaringenCDUAfD 36.5%9.2
285 Rottweil – TuttlingenCDUAfD 37.2%9.4
174 Main-Kinzig – Wetterau II – SchottenCDUAfD 34.3%9.5
115 Duisburg IISPDAfD 35.8%10.0
279 PforzheimCDUAfD 37.7%10.3
122 GelsenkirchenSPDAfD 34.9%10.4
169 Schwalm-EderCDUAfD 33.4%10.6
209 PirmasensCDUAfD 35.3%10.6
206 Ludwigshafen/FrankenthalCDUAfD 32.0%11.0
79 Berlin-Charlottenburg-WilmersdorfCDUGrüne 30.6%12.0
208 KaiserslauternSPDAfD 35.3%12.9
219 München-West/MitteCSUGrüne 38.6%12.9
86 Aachen ICDUGrüne 36.8%13.1
182 Frankfurt am Main IICDUGrüne 33.3%14.1
274 HeidelbergCDUGrüne 34.7%14.4
258 Stuttgart ICDUGrüne 35.5%15.8
218 München-SüdCSUGrüne 38.1%16.5
Close

69 close constituencies

The margin here is under 3.9 points, the average distance between polls and results. These seats could go either way.

69 close constituencies
Constituency2025 winnerNowcastMargin
10 Herzogtum Lauenburg – Stormarn-SüdCDUCDU 24.0%0.2
210 SüdpfalzCDUCDU 28.9%0.2
142 Dortmund IISPDSPD 25.8%0.3
145 SoestCDUCDU 27.8%0.4
176 Wetterau ICDUCDU 25.2%0.4
37 Lüchow-Dannenberg – LüneburgSPDSPD 22.0%0.6
255 Memmingen – UnterallgäuCSUCSU 32.2%0.6
131 Bielefeld – Gütersloh IISPDSPD 21.4%0.7
283 Emmendingen – LahrCDUCDU 27.6%0.7
289 ReutlingenCDUCDU 27.8%0.7
53 Göttingen ICDUCDU 21.1%0.8
240 AnsbachCSUCSU 30.8%1.0
293 BodenseeCDUCDU 29.3%1.0
26 Friesland – Wilhelmshaven – WittmundSPDSPD 29.1%1.1
74 Berlin-MitteGrüneGrüne 30.0%1.1
89 DürenCDUCDU 30.0%1.1
36 HarburgCDUCDU 24.9%1.2
199 Mosel/Rhein-HunsrückCDUCDU 28.6%1.2
23 Hamburg-Bergedorf – HarburgSPDSPD 25.1%1.3
108 MönchengladbachCDUCDU 27.8%1.3
43 Hannover-Land ICDUCDU 26.2%1.4
112 Wesel ICDUCDU 26.3%1.4
9 Ostholstein – Stormarn-NordCDUCDU 26.0%1.5
25 UnteremsCDUCDU 30.6%1.5
30 Stade I – Rotenburg IICDUCDU 27.2%1.6
47 Hannover-Land IISPDSPD 26.2%1.6
101 Wuppertal ISPDSPD 27.1%1.6
2 Nordfriesland – Dithmarschen NordCDUCDU 24.1%1.7
184 OffenbachCDUCDU 22.5%1.7
237 CoburgCSUCSU 31.4%1.7
242 FürthCSUCSU 27.5%1.7
266 Neckar-ZaberCDUCDU 28.8%1.7
38 Osnabrück-LandCDUCDU 27.4%1.8
96 Rhein-Sieg-Kreis ICDUCDU 26.4%1.8
7 PinnebergCDUCDU 23.4%2.0
117 Mülheim – Essen ISPDSPD 26.7%2.0
288 WaldshutCDUCDU 27.9%2.0
241 ErlangenCSUCSU 26.2%2.3
33 Diepholz – Nienburg ICDUCDU 26.8%2.4
141 Dortmund ISPDSPD 24.2%2.4
294 RavensburgCDUCDU 27.7%2.4
90 Rhein-Erft-Kreis ICDUCDU 26.2%2.5
104 Mettmann IICDUCDU 26.8%2.5
264 WaiblingenCDUCDU 27.7%2.5
4 Rendsburg-EckernfördeCDUCDU 24.3%2.6
14 Rostock – Landkreis Rostock IIAfDAfD 33.1%2.6
91 Euskirchen – Rhein-Erft-Kreis IICDUCDU 28.7%2.6
178 WiesbadenCDUCDU 22.1%2.7
291 UlmCDUCDU 28.1%2.7
34 Osterholz – VerdenCDUCDU 26.8%2.8
75 Berlin-PankowGrüneGrüne 29.4%2.9
235 BambergCSUCSU 28.8%2.9
249 SchweinfurtCSUCSU 32.3%2.9
262 NürtingenCDUCDU 27.5%2.9
88 HeinsbergCDUCDU 31.2%3.0
177 Rheingau-Taunus – LimburgCDUCDU 27.5%3.0
272 Karlsruhe-LandCDUCDU 28.7%3.0
107 Neuss ICDUCDU 27.4%3.2
135 Höxter – Gütersloh III – Lippe IICDUCDU 32.5%3.2
148 Olpe – Märkischer Kreis ICDUCDU 32.3%3.2
231 AmbergCSUCSU 33.2%3.2
232 RegensburgCSUCSU 28.1%3.2
265 LudwigsburgCDUCDU 26.3%3.2
253 Donau-RiesCSUCSU 34.2%3.3
250 WürzburgCSUCSU 28.6%3.4
287 KonstanzCDUCDU 27.5%3.4
105 Düsseldorf ICDUCDU 26.8%3.5
260 BöblingenCDUCDU 27.5%3.6
42 Stadt Hannover IISPDSPD 28.4%3.7
Method

How it is calculated

For each party we compute the factor “current national polling average divided by 2025 federal result”. The constituency's 2025 first- and second-vote shares are multiplied by this factor and normalised to 100 percent. CDU and CSU share the Union factor.

This is a proportional swing, not a model of individual candidates: personal profile, changed candidates or regional movements are not captured. That is why the section is called a nowcast, not a forecast.

Close means: the margin is under 3.9 points. That matches the mean error of polling averages one year before an election, see accuracy in the election forecast.

The average comes from national voting-intention polls (dawum.de, ODbL), constituency results from the Federal Returning Officer (dl-de/by-2-0). The projection is recalculated daily.

To the election forecast with seats and accuracy

Election tickerNext electionSaarland205 daysLatest pollForschungsgruppe Wahlen, Federal25 Sep 2026AfD 28CDU/CSU 21Grüne 14Biggest moveSPD, Rhineland-Palatinate▼ −8,3Leading nationallyAfDfor 161 daysRun-offsLower Saxony local elections2 daysLatest resultBerlin state election 2026Linke 25.7%, preliminary

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