Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election 2026: result, polls and government

Each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.

Since 17 September 2024, Infratest dimap has measured AfD on average 2.8 points above the average of the other pollsters, Infratest dimap has measured CDU on average 2.2 points below the average of the other pollsters, Infratest dimap has measured SPD on average 1.8 points above the average of the other pollsters.

Adjusted for these house effects, BSW would stand at 4.7% instead of 4.0%, AfD would stand at 36.2% instead of 36.8%, CDU would stand at 7.8% instead of 7.2%. The current average is therefore shaped by which pollsters published most recently.

Under Sainte-Laguë, the 71 seats would split into 28 for AfD, 25 for SPD, 8 for Linke, 6 for CDU, 4 for Grüne. BSW would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 71 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold 5 per cent.

All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.

Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.

Before the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election on 20 Sep 2026, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen came closest to the result with an average error of 1.5 points per party, Forsa was furthest away with 3.3 points. All pollsters overestimated Linke (by 3.7 points on average) and overestimated CDU (by 2.3 points on average). Official preliminary result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.

64 polls since 23 July 2017. Pollsters: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, INSA, pollytix, Infratest dimap, Forsa, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Civey.

Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.

Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.

Which pollsters survey the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election and when they last did.