Single poll

INSA poll of 4 December 2024 for the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election

Commissioned by
Nordkurier
Fieldwork period
18 to 25 Nov 2024
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • AfD27.0%+2.0
  • SPD21.0%+1.0
  • CDU19.0%-2.0
  • BSW16.0%-1.0
  • Grüne5.0%±0
  • Linke5.0%+1.0
  • FDP2.0%±0
  • Others5.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 25 Sep 2024.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 27.0%, followed by SPD on 21.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 18 to 25 Nov 2024, method Online, commissioned by Nordkurier.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 25 Sep 2024, AfD gains 2.0 points, CDU loses 2.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has BSW 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • BSW +2.0average 14.0
  • AfD -1.0average 28.0
  • SPD -1.0average 22.0
  • Grüne +1.0average 4.0
  • FDP -1.0average 3.0
  • CDU ±0average 19.0
  • Linke ±0average 5.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

71 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, electoral threshold 5%.

AfD: 21 seatsSPD: 16 seatsCDU: 14 seatsBSW: 12 seatsGrüne: 4 seatsLinke: 4 seatsMajority from 3671of 71 seats
  • AfD21
  • SPD16
  • CDU14
  • BSW12
  • Grüne4
  • Linke4
  • AfD + SPD37 of 71
  • AfD + CDU + BSW47 of 71
  • SPD + CDU + BSW42 of 71
  • AfD + CDU + Grüne39 of 71
  • AfD + CDU + Linke39 of 71
  • AfD + BSW + Grüne37 of 71
  • AfD + BSW + Linke37 of 71
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.