Lower Saxony state election 2027: polls, forecast and date
Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, as of 11 September 2026 (57 days ago). Next election: 26 September 2027; see also the Lower Saxony state election 2027 forecast. Sunday question Lower Saxony: average, pollsters and trend.
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 9 Oct 2022.
SPD leads with 26.0%, 4.0 points ahead of CDU (22.0%). Biggest movement over 120 days: CDU −4.0 and Grüne +4.0. Around the 5% threshold: Linke 6.0% and FDP 5.0%.
How is the polling average calculated?
We take the latest poll of every pollster published within the last 120 days and average them with equal weight. Parties are shown as reported by the pollsters; “Others” collects everything not listed separately. The light area marks the statistical margin of a single poll of about 1,000 respondents.
Why do pollsters differ?
Pollsters use different sampling methods (telephone, online panels, mixed) and different weighting of undecided voters. The spread between the lowest and highest value per party is shown as a range; systematic differences per pollster are analysed under “house effects”.
Averaging the latest poll for the Lower Saxony state election, SPD leads with 26.0%, followed by CDU on 22.0%.
- Lead at the top
- SPD 4.0 points ahead of CDU
- Around the 5% threshold
- Linke 6.0% · FDP 5.0%
- Movement over 120 days
- CDU −4.0 · Grüne +4.0 · FDP +1.5
- Two-party majorities
- SPD + CDU
- Current government
- SPD + Grüne: 58 of 135 seats, no majority
- Basis
- 1 pollster, latest poll 11 September 2026
These polls feed into the average
Each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.
| Party | Average 11 Sep 2026 | INSA 11 Sep 2026 | 2022 election |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPD | 26.0 | 26.0 | 33.4 |
| CDU | 22.0 | 22.0 | 28.1 |
| AfD | 21.0 | 21.0 | 10.9 |
| Grüne | 15.0 | 15.0 | 14.5 |
| Linke | 6.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 |
| FDP | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| BSW | 3.0 | 3.0 | – |
| Others | 2.0 | 2.0 | 5.7 |
Values in percent, latest poll per pollster within the averaging window. Bold: highest value per party.
| Pollster | Published | SPD | CDU | AfD | Grüne | Linke | FDP | BSW | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 11 Sep 2026 | 26 | 22 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
Seat distribution in the Landtag of Lower Saxony
Under Sainte-Laguë, the 135 seats would split into 37 for SPD, 31 for CDU, 30 for AfD, 21 for Grüne, 9 for Linke, 7 for FDP. BSW would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 135 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold 5 per cent.
- SPD37
- CDU31
- AfD30
- Grüne21
- Linke9
- FDP7
SPD would be the largest group with 37 of 135 seats; a majority needs 68. BSW would miss the threshold and win no seats.
How is the seat distribution calculated?
Seats are allocated by the Sainte-Laguë/Schepers method among all parties above the 5% threshold, based on the polling average. The parliament has 135 seats; a majority needs 68. Overhang or levelling seats and constituency effects are not modelled.
Which coalitions would have a majority?
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.
One two-party alliance has a majority: SPD + CDU. The current government (SPD and Grüne) would lose its majority with 58 seats.
Which coalitions are shown?
All two- and three-party alliances with at least 68 of 135 seats. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. Tap parties in the calculator to test any other combination; exclusions can be set under Settings.
- SPD + GrüneGovernment, no majority58 of 135
- SPD + CDU68 of 135
- SPD + AfD + Grüne88 of 135
- CDU + AfD + Grüne82 of 135
- SPD + AfD + Linke76 of 135
- SPD + AfD + FDP74 of 135
- CDU + AfD + Linke70 of 135
- CDU + AfD + FDP68 of 135
SPD + Grüne last had a majority in June 2023; currently holding a majority: SPD + CDU (throughout the period) and SPD + AfD + Grüne (throughout the period).
How is the coalition timeline calculated?
For the end of each of the last 48 months the polling average is computed as it stood on that date: the latest poll from each pollster within the preceding 120 days, averaged without weighting. Seats are then allocated using the parliament's method and threshold. An alliance has a majority in a month if its seats add up to at least half plus one. The most recent month uses the current average.
Which alliances are shown?
The incumbent government, the alliances with a majority in the current average and the pairs of the four largest parties. A filled cell means an arithmetic majority in that month, a pale cell none. The bar says nothing about whether an alliance is politically feasible.
How secure are the majorities?
Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.
Majority in parliament
- SPD + GrüneGovernment7%
- SPD + CDU70%
- SPD + AfD + Grüneover 99%
- CDU + AfD + Grüneover 99%
- SPD + AfD + Linke95%
- SPD + AfD + FDP87%
- CDU + AfD + Linke69%
- CDU + AfD + FDP49%
- SPD + AfD59%
- CDU + AfD19%
- CDU + Grüneunder 1%
- AfD + Grüneunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- BSW (±1.4)7%
- FDP (±1.2)51%
- Linke (±1.9)70%
Largest party
- SPD81%
- CDU14%
- AfD5%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
SPD, AfD and Grüne holds a majority in 100% of 3,000 simulations. Uncertain at the 5% threshold: BSW (7% above), FDP (51% above) and Linke (70% above).
How are the probabilities calculated?
We recompute the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied poll values. The variation per party combines the sampling error of the average with the historical error of polls before elections since 2017. The probability is the share of runs in which an alliance reaches 68 seats.
Polling trend: how the polls moved since 8 November 2024
Since 8 Nov 2024 AfD +4.4 and Grüne +4.2 gained, while CDU −8.4 and BSW −1.4 lost points.
How does the rolling average work?
Each point is one poll. The line is the average of all polls of the previous 120 days, one per pollster, so a single outlier moves it only slightly. Choose a period, an end month or the area view to explore the history back to 2017.
Search interest by party in Lower Saxony
Each party's share of Google searches for the eight parties in the state, last 90 days. For comparison the current poll rating, where the party is listed in the state's polls.
In Lower Saxony, AfD accounts for 51.3% of the search interest across the eight parties, ahead of CDU/CSU on 18.0%. In the state's polls AfD stands at 21.0%.
How is the search share by state calculated?
Google Trends reports for each state how search interest is distributed across the compared parties over the last 90 days. Two groups of five are linked through the AfD as a common yardstick; CDU and CSU are added together.
Accuracy ahead of the election on 9 Oct 2022
Before the Lower Saxony state election on 9 Oct 2022, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen came closest to the result with an average error of 0.7 points per party, Forsa was furthest away with 1.7 points. All pollsters overestimated Grüne (by 2.1 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.
| Pollster | Poll dated | SPD | CDU | Grüne | AfD | FDP | Linke | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 9 Oct 2022 | 33.4% | 28.1% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 Oct 2022 (3 days before) | -0.4 | -0.1 | +1.5 | -0.9 | +0.3 | +0.8 | 0.7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 7 Oct 2022 (2 days before) | +1.6 | -1.1 | +1.0 | -0.9 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 0.9 |
| INSA | 4 Oct 2022 (5 days before) | -2.4 | -0.1 | +1.5 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.3 | 0.9 |
| Civey | 6 Oct 2022 (3 days before) | -0.4 | -1.1 | +2.5 | -0.9 | +0.3 | +1.3 | 1.1 |
| Infratest dimap | 29 Sep 2022 (10 days before) | -1.4 | +1.9 | +1.5 | -1.9 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 1.2 |
| Forsa | 28 Sep 2022 (11 days before) | -2.4 | -1.1 | +4.5 | -1.9 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 1.7 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.
All polls for the Lower Saxony state election
72 polls since 6 May 2017. Pollsters: INSA, Allensbach, Infratest dimap, Forsa, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Civey, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, dimap.
| Pollster | Published | SPD | CDU | AfD | Grüne | Linke | FDP | BSW | Others | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 11 Sep 2026 | 26 | 22 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||
| INSA | 22 Apr 2026 | 25 | 25 | 20 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | ||
| Allensbach | 25 Feb 2026 | 26 | 27 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 3 | – | 6 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 19 Nov 2025 | 26 | 26 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | ||
| INSA | 19 Feb 2025 | 25 | 30 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | ||
| Allensbach | 5 Dec 2024 | 27 | 33 | 16 | 10 | – | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| INSA | 12 Nov 2024 | 26 | 31 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 8 Nov 2024 | 25 | 32 | 15 | 12 | – | – | 4 | 12 | ||
| Allensbach | 5 Feb 2024 | 29 | 30 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 4 | – | 3 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 14 Nov 2023 | 26 | 28 | 18 | 13 | – | 5 | – | 10 | ||
| INSA | 19 Oct 2023 | 27 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 3 | 4 | – | 7 | ||
| Allensbach | 12 Jul 2023 | 32 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 5 | – | 4 | ||
| Forsa | 16 Feb 2023 | 33 | 26 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 5 | – | 6 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 7 Oct 2022 | 35 | 27 | 10 | 15.5 | 3 | 5 | – | 4.5 | ||
| Civey | 6 Oct 2022 | 33 | 27 | 10 | 17 | 4 | 5 | – | 4 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 Oct 2022 | 33 | 28 | 10 | 16 | 3.5 | 5 | – | 4.5 | ||
| INSA | 4 Oct 2022 | 31 | 28 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 5 | – | 5 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Oct 2022 | 35 | 27 | 11 | 15.5 | 2.5 | 4.5 | – | 4.5 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 30 Sep 2022 | 32 | 27 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 5 | – | 5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 29 Sep 2022 | 32 | 30 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 5 | – | 5 | ||
| Forsa | 28 Sep 2022 | 31 | 27 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 5 | – | 6 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 24 Sep 2022 | 35 | 27.5 | 9 | 15.5 | 2.5 | 5 | – | 5.5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 22 Sep 2022 | 32 | 28 | 9 | 17 | 4 | 5 | – | 5 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 17 Sep 2022 | 34.5 | 25.5 | 9 | 17.5 | 3 | 5.5 | – | 5 | ||
| Civey | 13 Sep 2022 | 31 | 29 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 6 | – | 4 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 9 Sep 2022 | 34.5 | 26 | 8.5 | 17 | 3 | 6 | – | 5 | ||
| INSA | 4 Sep 2022 | 31 | 28 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 7 | – | 4 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 2 Sep 2022 | 34.5 | 25 | 8.5 | 17 | 3 | 7.5 | – | 4.5 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Sep 2022 | 32 | 29 | 7 | 19 | 2 | 6 | – | 5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 31 Aug 2022 | 31 | 27 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 6 | – | 6 | ||
| Forsa | 30 Aug 2022 | 29 | 26 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 6 | – | 6 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 20 Aug 2022 | 27 | 30 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 7 | – | 6 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 5 Aug 2022 | 29 | 30 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 5 | – | 5 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 17 Jul 2022 | 33 | 27 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 6 | – | 5 | ||
| Infratest dimap | 6 Jul 2022 | 30 | 27 | 6 | 22 | 3 | 7 | – | 5 | ||
| Forsa | 30 Jun 2022 | 30 | 26 | 7 | 22 | 3 | 6 | – | 6 | ||
| INSA | 21 Jun 2022 | 31 | 29 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 8 | – | 5 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 12 Jun 2022 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 22 | 3 | 6 | – | 5 | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 24 May 2022 | 30.5 | 26 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 7 | – | 5.5 | ||
| Forsa | 3 May 2022 | 33 | 26 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 7 | – | 6 | ||
| Min – Max | 25–35 | 22–33 | 5–21 | 10–24 | 2–7 | 3–8 | 3–6 | 2–12 | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
The 40 latest of 72 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.
The Lower Saxony state election at a glance
At the last Lower Saxony state election on 9 October 2022, SPD became the largest party with 33.4%, defending first place from 2017. The biggest move compared with 2017: Grüne gained 5.8 points.
Lower Saxony is governed by SPD and Grüne. On the current polling average this alliance would win 58 of 135 seats, and would no longer have a majority.
72 polls for the Lower Saxony state election have been published since 6 May 2017, 3 of them this year. Most come from INSA (17), Institut Wahlkreisprognose (16), Infratest dimap (14). Recently a new poll has appeared every 109 days on average.
The next Lower Saxony state election is scheduled for 26 September 2027. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 18 or over is eligible to vote.
- 16-year-olds may vote in local elections, but not for the Landtag.
Results: 9 Oct 2022 · 15 Oct 2017. Pollster accuracy.
- Parliament
- Landtag of Lower Saxony
- Seats
- 135 (regular size)
- Constituencies
- 87
- Threshold
- 5 per cent
- Seat allocation
- Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
- Votes
- two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
- Term
- 5 years
- Voting age
- 18 years
- Last election
- 9 October 2022
- Next election
- 26 September 2027
- Government
- SPD, Grüne
- State capital
- Hannover
2024 European election in Lower Saxony
In the European election on 9 June 2024, CDU came first in Lower Saxony with 31.4% of the vote. The bars show the European election shares, the small figures the gap to the 2025 federal election in the same area.
In the 2024 European election, CDU was the strongest party in Lower Saxony with 31.4%, +3.3 points compared with the 2025 federal election. Turnout was 64.1% (2025 federal election: 83.4%).
Why do the European and federal elections differ?
The European election has no electoral threshold, so small parties such as Volt, Die PARTEI or the animal-welfare party win more votes. Turnout is much lower, and the political mood shifted between June 2024 and February 2025. The single European-election vote is compared with the second vote of the federal election in the same area; parties that count as Others in 2025 get no difference.
Where do these figures come from?
Official final result of the 2024 European election from the Federal Returning Officer (kerg2.csv), votes per district and independent city.
| Party | Votes 2024 | European election 2024 | Federal election 2025 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDU | 1,240,227 | 31.4% | 28.1% | +3.3 |
| SPD | 770,510 | 19.5% | 23.0% | -3.5 |
| AfD | 523,014 | 13.2% | 17.8% | -4.6 |
| Grüne | 481,046 | 12.2% | 11.5% | +0.7 |
| FDP | 211,088 | 5.3% | 4.1% | +1.2 |
| BSW | 176,236 | 4.5% | 3.8% | +0.7 |
| Volt | 87,667 | 2.2% | 0.6% | +1.6 |
| Linke | 84,480 | 2.1% | 8.1% | -6.0 |
| Die PARTEI | 73,477 | 1.9% | – | – |
| Tierschutzpartei | 59,763 | 1.5% | – | – |
| Freie Wähler | 47,930 | 1.2% | 0.8% | +0.4 |
| ÖDP | 11,891 | 0.3% | – | – |
| Others | 183,440 | 4.6% | – | – |
Die PARTEI, Tierschutzpartei, ÖDP: counted as Others in the 2025 federal election, so no difference is shown.
Source: Federal Returning Officer, 2024 European election, results by state and district (kerg2.csv) (file), final result, retrieved 28 Sep 2026, Data licence Germany, attribution 2.0. Berlin East and Berlin West are aggregated from the boroughs as in the 2025 federal election. Comparison values: second votes of the 2025 federal election in the same area. Compiled by wahlergebnisse.io.
Lower Saxony in figures
Key facts about the place from official statistics and Wikidata, so the election result can be put in context. The figures describe, they do not explain.
- Population
- 8,000,826 (as of 2025-12-31)
- Area
- 47,709.8 km²
- Population density
- 168 inhabitants per km²
- Under 19
- 17.7%
- 67 and older
- 20.1%
- Foreign nationals (2022 census)
- 10.3%
- Employees subject to social insurance (place of work)
- 3,170,249 (as of 2025-12-31)
- Largest sectors
- Health and social work 17% · Manufacturing 16% · Trade and vehicle repair 14%
- Commuter balance
- -167,861 (more out-commuters than in-commuters)
- Volkswagen AG
- 672,800 employees (2021-12-31)
- Continental AG
- 202,763 employees (2023-12-31)
- Rossmann
- 60,500 employees (2022)
- Volkswagen Nutzfahrzeuge
- 19,400 employees (2006)
- Elevation
- 13 m
- First mention or foundation
- 1946
- Twin towns
- 1
- Website
- www.niedersachsen.de
- Wikipedia
- Lower Saxony (Wikipedia)
Lower Saxony has 8,000,826 inhabitants. The largest sector is Health and social work with 17% of employees. The largest company headquartered in Lower Saxony is Volkswagen AG with 672,800 employees.
Where do the profile figures come from?
Population, area and coordinates from the Federal Statistical Office's municipality register, employees, sectors and unemployment from the Federal Employment Agency, age structure from the 2022 census, coat of arms, website and companies from Wikidata and Wikimedia Commons. All sources are openly licensed and linked below the list.
Does the profile explain the election result?
No. It describes the place so readers can put figures in context. Whether sector, age or density relate to voting can only be tested across many places, not from a single result.
Sources: Wikidata (CC0 1.0) · Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Gemeindeverzeichnis GV-ISys (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0) · Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (© Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Nutzung mit Quellenangabe) · Zensus 2022, Statistische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder, Regionaltabelle Demografie (Datenlizenz Deutschland – Namensnennung – Version 2.0)
Lower Saxony: largest party by district
Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.
Strongest party: CDU in 36 districts, SPD in 8 districts and AfD in 1 district of 45. Highest share: CDU with 41.7% in Vechta.
What does the map show?
Each district is coloured by the party with the highest second-vote share at the 2025 federal election; the intensity follows the share. Tap or hover a district for the exact figure and turnout, click to open the district page with all municipalities.
All districts and municipalities in Lower Saxony · Map of Germany
Districts, cities and constituencies in Lower Saxony
Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.
Districts and independent cities
The largest cities
- HannoverSPD 22.8%
- BraunschweigSPD 22.6%
- Oldenburg (Oldenburg)SPD 23.5%
- OsnabrückSPD 23.8%
- GöttingenGrüne 23.5%
- WolfsburgCDU 27.0%
- HildesheimCDU 23.7%
- SalzgitterAfD 26.3%
- LüneburgGrüne 22.9%
- WilhelmshavenSPD 25.1%
- DelmenhorstSPD 23.7%
- CelleCDU 28.0%
- Lingen (Ems)CDU 37.0%
- GarbsenCDU 27.5%
- WolfenbüttelCDU 27.8%
- HamelnCDU 26.4%
Constituencies at the 2025 federal election
Strongest party: SPD in 15 constituencies and CDU in 15 constituencies of 30. Highest share: CDU with 45.8% in 32 Cloppenburg – Vechta.
What does the map show?
Each constituency is coloured by the party whose candidate won the direct seat at the 2025 federal election (first votes). Click a constituency for its results, candidates and the current nowcast.
All constituencies in Lower Saxony as a list · All districts and municipalities
All Lower Saxony state elections since 1947: result, seats and turnout
There have been 19 state elections in Lower Saxony since 1947. SPD was the largest party 12 times; most recently SPD led in 2022 with 33.4%. Turnout ranged from 57.1% (2008) to 84.4% (1974).
Shares in percent, seats in brackets. Parties without a seat in any election are counted under Others.
| Year | Turnout | Seats | SPD | CDU | Grüne | AfD | FDP | Linke/PDS | DRP/NPD | KPD/DKP | Zentrum | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 60.3% | 146 | 33.4% (57) | 28.1% (47) | 14.5% (24) | 10.9% (18) | 4.7% (0) | 2.7% (0) | – | – | – | 5.2% |
| 2017 | 63.1% | 137 | 36.9% (55) | 33.6% (50) | 8.7% (12) | 6.2% (9) | 7.5% (11) | 4.6% (0) | – | – | – | 2.2% |
| 2013 | 59.4% | 137 | 32.6% (49) | 36.0% (54) | 13.7% (20) | – | 9.9% (14) | 3.1% (0) | 0.8% (0) | – | – | 2.5% |
| 2008 | 57.1% | 152 | 30.3% (48) | 42.5% (68) | 8.0% (12) | – | 8.2% (13) | 7.1% (11) | 1.5% (0) | – | – | 2.4% |
| 2003 | 67.0% | 183 | 33.4% (63) | 48.3% (91) | 7.6% (14) | – | 8.1% (15) | 0.5% (0) | – | – | – | 1.6% |
| 1998 | 73.8% | 157 | 47.9% (83) | 35.9% (62) | 7.0% (12) | – | 4.9% (0) | – | – | – | – | 1.5% |
| 1994 | 73.8% | 161 | 44.3% (81) | 36.4% (67) | 7.4% (13) | – | 4.4% (0) | – | – | – | – | 3.8% |
| 1990 | 74.6% | 155 | 44.2% (71) | 42.0% (67) | 5.5% (8) | – | 6.0% (9) | – | 0.2% (0) | – | – | 0.6% |
| 1986 | 77.3% | 155 | 42.1% (66) | 44.3% (69) | 7.1% (11) | – | 6.0% (9) | – | – | 0.1% (0) | – | 0.4% |
| 1982 | 77.7% | 171 | 36.5% (63) | 50.7% (87) | 6.5% (11) | – | 5.9% (10) | – | – | 0.3% (0) | – | – |
| 1978 | 78.5% | 155 | 42.2% (72) | 48.7% (83) | 3.9% (0) | – | 4.2% (0) | – | 0.4% (0) | 0.3% (0) | – | 0.3% |
| 1974 | 84.4% | 155 | 43.1% (67) | 48.8% (77) | – | – | 7.0% (11) | – | 0.6% (0) | 0.4% (0) | – | – |
| 1970 | 76.7% | 149 | 46.3% (75) | 45.7% (74) | – | – | 4.4% (0) | – | 3.2% (0) | 0.4% (0) | 3.1% (0) | – |
| 1967 | 75.8% | 149 | 43.1% (66) | 41.7% (63) | – | – | 6.9% (10) | – | 7.0% (10) | – | – | 1.3% |
| 1963 | 76.9% | 149 | 44.9% (73) | 37.7% (62) | – | – | 8.8% (14) | – | 1.5% (0) | – | – | 4.4% |
| 1959 | 78.0% | 157 | 39.5% (65) | 30.8% (51) | – | – | 5.2% (8) | – | 3.6% (0) | – | 0.0% (0) | 0.2% |
| 1955 | 77.5% | 159 | 35.2% (59) | 26.6% (43) | – | – | 7.9% (12) | – | 3.8% (6) | 1.3% (2) | 1.1% (1) | 0.7% |
| 1951 | 75.8% | 158 | 33.7% (64) | 23.7% (35) | – | – | 8.3% (12) | – | 2.2% (3) | 1.8% (2) | 3.3% (4) | – |
| 1947 | 65.1% | 149 | 43.4% (65) | 19.9% (30) | – | – | 8.8% (13) | – | 0.3% (0) | 5.7% (8) | 4.1% (6) | – |
Source: Landeswahlleitungen und Bundeswahlleiterin, zusammengeführt über wahlrecht.de/ergebnisse; Hamburg 2025: Statistikamt Nord, as of 29 Sep 2026. Official seats including overhang and compensatory seats; predecessor parties merged (Linke/PDS, Grüne/Bündnis 90).
Who won the state elections in Lower Saxony?
Largest party per election: 2022 SPD (33.4%), 2017 SPD (36.9%), 2013 CDU (36.0%), 2008 CDU (42.5%), 2003 CDU (48.3%), 1998 SPD (47.9%), 1994 SPD (44.3%), 1990 SPD (44.2%), 1986 CDU (44.3%), 1982 CDU (50.7%), 1978 CDU (48.7%), 1974 CDU (48.8%), 1970 SPD (46.3%), 1967 SPD (43.1%), 1963 SPD (44.9%), 1959 SPD (39.5%), 1955 SPD (35.2%), 1951 SPD (33.7%), 1947 SPD (43.4%).
Pollsters
Which pollsters survey the Lower Saxony state election and when they last did.
- INSA27 May 2017
- Allensbach11 Mar 2021
- Infratest dimap10 Aug 2017
- Forsa6 May 2017
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose26 Aug 2021
- Civey2 Oct 2017
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen6 Oct 2017
- dimap30 Aug 2017