Lower Saxony state election 2027: polls, forecast and date
Average of each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, as of 11 September 2026 (12 days ago). Next election: 26 September 2027; see also the Lower Saxony state election 2027 forecast.
- SPD26.0%-7.4
- CDU22.0%-6.1
- AfD21.0%+10.1
- Grüne15.0%+0.5
- Linke6.0%+3.3
- FDP5.0%+0.3
- BSW3.0%
- Others2.0%-3.7
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 9 Oct 2022.
Averaging the latest poll for the Lower Saxony state election, SPD leads with 26.0%, followed by CDU on 22.0%.
- Lead at the topSPD 4.0 points ahead of CDU
- Around the 5% thresholdLinke 6.0% · FDP 5.0%
- Movement over 120 daysCDU −4.0 · Grüne +4.0 · FDP +1.5
- Two-party majoritiesSPD + CDU
- Current governmentSPD + Grüne: 58 of 135 seats, no majority
- Basis1 pollster, latest poll 11 September 2026
These polls feed into the average
Each pollster's latest poll from the past 120 days, averaged without weighting. Older polls by the same pollster are replaced.
| Pollster | Published | SPD | CDU | AfD | Grüne | Linke | FDP | BSW | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 11 Sep 2026 | 26 | 22 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
Seat distribution in the Landtag of Lower Saxony
Under Sainte-Laguë, the 135 seats would split into 37 for SPD, 31 for CDU, 30 for AfD, 21 for Grüne, 9 for Linke, 7 for FDP. BSW would fall short of the threshold. Regular size 135 seats, excluding overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold 5 per cent.
Which coalitions would have a majority?
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority. Alliances that merely extend a smaller majority coalition are hidden. The arithmetic says nothing about whether a coalition is politically feasible.
- SPD + GrüneGovernment, no majority58 of 135
- SPD + CDU68 of 135
- SPD + AfD + Grüne88 of 135
- CDU + AfD + Grüne82 of 135
- SPD + AfD + Linke76 of 135
- SPD + AfD + FDP74 of 135
- CDU + AfD + Linke70 of 135
- CDU + AfD + FDP68 of 135
How secure are the majorities?
Polls have errors, so we recalculate the seat distribution 3,000 times with randomly varied values. The spread for each party follows from the sampling error of the average and from how far the final polls before earlier elections actually missed. The result: the probability that an alliance would have a majority, that a party clears the threshold and who becomes the largest party. This is not an election forecast but an assessment of the current polling picture.
Majority in parliament
- SPD + GrüneGovernment7%
- SPD + CDU70%
- SPD + AfD + Grüneover 99%
- CDU + AfD + Grüneover 99%
- SPD + AfD + Linke95%
- SPD + AfD + FDP87%
- CDU + AfD + Linke69%
- CDU + AfD + FDP49%
- SPD + AfD59%
- CDU + AfD19%
- CDU + Grüneunder 1%
- AfD + Grüneunder 1%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- BSW (±1.4)7%
- FDP (±1.2)51%
- Linke (±1.9)70%
Largest party
- SPD81%
- CDU14%
- AfD5%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
Polling trend since 8 November 2024
Accuracy ahead of the election on 9 Oct 2022
Before the Lower Saxony state election on 9 Oct 2022, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen came closest to the result with an average error of 0.7 points per party, Forsa was furthest away with 1.7 points. All pollsters overestimated Grüne (by 2.1 points on average). Official result according to the returning officer. All elections since 2017 in the pollster comparison.
| Pollster | Poll dated | SPD | CDU | Grüne | AfD | FDP | Linke | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 9 Oct 2022 | 33.4% | 28.1% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 Oct 2022 (3 days before) | -0.4 | -0.1 | +1.5 | -0.9 | +0.3 | +0.8 | 0.7 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 7 Oct 2022 (2 days before) | +1.6 | -1.1 | +1.0 | -0.9 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 0.9 |
| INSA | 4 Oct 2022 (5 days before) | -2.4 | -0.1 | +1.5 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +1.3 | 0.9 |
| Civey | 6 Oct 2022 (3 days before) | -0.4 | -1.1 | +2.5 | -0.9 | +0.3 | +1.3 | 1.1 |
| Infratest dimap | 29 Sep 2022 (10 days before) | -1.4 | +1.9 | +1.5 | -1.9 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 1.2 |
| Forsa | 28 Sep 2022 (11 days before) | -2.4 | -1.1 | +4.5 | -1.9 | +0.3 | +0.3 | 1.7 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.
All polls for the Lower Saxony state election
72 polls since 6 May 2017. Pollsters: INSA, Allensbach, Infratest dimap, Forsa, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Civey, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, dimap.
| Pollster | Published | SPD | CDU | AfD | Grüne | Linke | FDP | BSW | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 11 Sep 2026 | 26 | 22 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| INSA | 22 Apr 2026 | 25 | 25 | 20 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Allensbach | 25 Feb 2026 | 26 | 27 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 3 | – | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 19 Nov 2025 | 26 | 26 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| INSA | 19 Feb 2025 | 25 | 30 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Allensbach | 5 Dec 2024 | 27 | 33 | 16 | 10 | – | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| INSA | 12 Nov 2024 | 26 | 31 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 8 Nov 2024 | 25 | 32 | 15 | 12 | – | – | 4 | 12 |
| Allensbach | 5 Feb 2024 | 29 | 30 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 4 | – | 3 |
| Infratest dimap | 14 Nov 2023 | 26 | 28 | 18 | 13 | – | 5 | – | 10 |
| INSA | 19 Oct 2023 | 27 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 3 | 4 | – | 7 |
| Allensbach | 12 Jul 2023 | 32 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 5 | – | 4 |
| Forsa | 16 Feb 2023 | 33 | 26 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 5 | – | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 7 Oct 2022 | 35 | 27 | 10 | 15.5 | 3 | 5 | – | 4.5 |
| Civey | 6 Oct 2022 | 33 | 27 | 10 | 17 | 4 | 5 | – | 4 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 6 Oct 2022 | 33 | 28 | 10 | 16 | 3.5 | 5 | – | 4.5 |
| INSA | 4 Oct 2022 | 31 | 28 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 5 | – | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Oct 2022 | 35 | 27 | 11 | 15.5 | 2.5 | 4.5 | – | 4.5 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 30 Sep 2022 | 32 | 27 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 5 | – | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 29 Sep 2022 | 32 | 30 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 5 | – | 5 |
| Forsa | 28 Sep 2022 | 31 | 27 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 5 | – | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 24 Sep 2022 | 35 | 27.5 | 9 | 15.5 | 2.5 | 5 | – | 5.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 22 Sep 2022 | 32 | 28 | 9 | 17 | 4 | 5 | – | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 17 Sep 2022 | 34.5 | 25.5 | 9 | 17.5 | 3 | 5.5 | – | 5 |
| Civey | 13 Sep 2022 | 31 | 29 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 6 | – | 4 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 9 Sep 2022 | 34.5 | 26 | 8.5 | 17 | 3 | 6 | – | 5 |
| INSA | 4 Sep 2022 | 31 | 28 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 7 | – | 4 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 2 Sep 2022 | 34.5 | 25 | 8.5 | 17 | 3 | 7.5 | – | 4.5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 1 Sep 2022 | 32 | 29 | 7 | 19 | 2 | 6 | – | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 31 Aug 2022 | 31 | 27 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 6 | – | 6 |
| Forsa | 30 Aug 2022 | 29 | 26 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 6 | – | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 20 Aug 2022 | 27 | 30 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 7 | – | 6 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 5 Aug 2022 | 29 | 30 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 5 | – | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 17 Jul 2022 | 33 | 27 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 6 | – | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 6 Jul 2022 | 30 | 27 | 6 | 22 | 3 | 7 | – | 5 |
| Forsa | 30 Jun 2022 | 30 | 26 | 7 | 22 | 3 | 6 | – | 6 |
| INSA | 21 Jun 2022 | 31 | 29 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 8 | – | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 12 Jun 2022 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 22 | 3 | 6 | – | 5 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 24 May 2022 | 30.5 | 26 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 7 | – | 5.5 |
| Forsa | 3 May 2022 | 33 | 26 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 7 | – | 6 |
The 40 latest of 72 polls. Every poll has its own page; see all polls in the chronicle.
The Lower Saxony state election at a glance
At the last Lower Saxony state election on 9 October 2022, SPD became the largest party with 33.4%, defending first place from 2017. The biggest move compared with 2017: Grüne gained 5.8 points.
Lower Saxony is governed by SPD and Grüne. On the current polling average this alliance would win 58 of 135 seats, and would no longer have a majority.
72 polls for the Lower Saxony state election have been published since 6 May 2017, 3 of them this year. Most come from INSA (17), Institut Wahlkreisprognose (16), Infratest dimap (14). Recently a new poll has appeared every 109 days on average.
The next Lower Saxony state election is scheduled for 26 September 2027. The term is 5 years, and anyone aged 18 or over is eligible to vote.
- 16-year-olds may vote in local elections, but not for the Landtag.
Results: 9 Oct 2022 · 15 Oct 2017. Pollster accuracy.
- Parliament
- Landtag of Lower Saxony
- Seats
- 135 (regular size)
- Constituencies
- 87
- Threshold
- 5 per cent
- Seat allocation
- Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
- Votes
- two votes: first vote for the constituency, second vote for the state list
- Term
- 5 years
- Voting age
- 18 years
- Last election
- 9 October 2022
- Next election
- 26 September 2027
- Government
- SPD, Grüne
- State capital
- Hannover
Lower Saxony: largest party by district
Second votes at the 2025 federal election in the districts and independent cities. Tap to open the district result with all municipalities. State election results by municipality will follow once the state returning officer provides them in machine-readable form.
All districts and municipalities in Lower Saxony · Map of Germany
Districts, cities and constituencies in Lower Saxony
Every district with all its municipalities, the largest cities with their 2025 federal election result, and the constituencies with their directly elected seat.
Districts and independent cities
The largest cities
- HannoverSPD 22.8%
- BraunschweigSPD 22.6%
- Oldenburg (Oldenburg)SPD 23.5%
- OsnabrückSPD 23.8%
- GöttingenGrüne 23.5%
- WolfsburgCDU 27.0%
- HildesheimCDU 23.7%
- SalzgitterAfD 26.3%
- LüneburgGrüne 22.9%
- WilhelmshavenSPD 25.1%
- DelmenhorstSPD 23.7%
- CelleCDU 28.0%
- Lingen (Ems)CDU 37.0%
- GarbsenCDU 27.5%
- WolfenbüttelCDU 27.8%
- HamelnCDU 26.4%
Constituencies at the 2025 federal election
All constituencies in Lower Saxony as a list · All districts and municipalities
Pollsters
Which pollsters survey the Lower Saxony state election and when they last did.
- INSA27 May 2017
- Allensbach11 Mar 2021
- Infratest dimap10 Aug 2017
- Forsa6 May 2017
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose26 Aug 2021
- Civey2 Oct 2017
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen6 Oct 2017
- dimap30 Aug 2017